Tornado Warning 10, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...Severe weather possible today and tomorrow...

A surface low is currently located just to our northwest, with a dry
line across out western most counties and a cold front moving in
from the north. Storms are expected to form later this afternoon and
evening near the low, where the dry line and front interact. Most
models have storms developing in the Big Country starting around 4
this afternoon and continuing overnight. We are seeing some cumulus
development in Nolan County, which could be a precursor for
thunderstorms in the next couple of hours. The majority of models
show most of the activity staying in the Big Country, Heartland, and
northern Concho Valley, with a few storms finding their way into the
our southern counties. Instability will be very high this afternoon
(4000+ J/Kg possible) and wind shear values will be sufficient for
severe development. With the instability as high as it is, storms
could very quickly become severe once they develop and outflow
boundary's could trigger new storms. The main threat today will be
large hail (2+ inches), but damaging winds and an isolated tornado
are also possible. Localized flooding will also be possible with
these storms, as rain amounts could exceed 2 inches under isolated
storms.

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler for the Big Country, as the cold
front keeps winds from the north and east for the start of Friday.
Winds will return back to the southeast for much of the area and the
dry line will retreat westward again, leaving us with dewpoints in
the 60s and 70s. CAPE values could be in excess of 3000 J/Kg by the
late afternoon. Weak convergence on any residual boundaries and an
upper level disturbance aloft could be enough to produce storms in
the late afternoon. CAMs are differing on coverage for tomorrow. The
HRRR is bringing much more widespread activity, with storms
developing to the west and moving into the area. With the large
instability and sufficient shear, any storm that develops could
produce very large hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Thunderstorm chances will persist across the area into the upcoming
weekend. On Saturday, a cold front will push south into north Texas
during the afternoon hours and then sag south into portions of
the Big Country Saturday evening. Also, a dryline will be situated
across west Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along
the cold front and dryline by late afternoon and early evening, as
large scale ascent increases due to an embedded shortwave in
southwest flow aloft. The airmass within the warm sector will be
moist and unstable, with PW (precipitable water) values between
1.5 and 1.75 inches and CAPE's around 3000 J/kg. Showers and
thunderstorms should become quite numerous across the area
Saturday evening into the overnight hours, as a strong easterly
low level jet develops. Heavy rainfall is possible, along with
a threat for severe storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds. At this time, the greatest threat for severe
storms and heavy rainfall will be from the Concho Valley and
Heartland north into the Big Country. With southwest flow aloft
continuing on Sunday, there will be a continued chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Given adequate shear and
instability, additonal severe storms are possible.

A large upper trough is expected to move north of our area on
Monday, with the dryline mixing east into eastern portions of the
forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms may develop along
and east of the dryline over far eastern sections Monday
afternoon but the better chances will stay north and east of the
area. Looking for a dry forecast Tuesday through Thursday, along
with above normal temperatures through the period, with
temperatures pushing well into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Skies are clearing from west to east, lifting MVFR CIGs to VFR
over the next hour or so. Storms are possible later this afternoon
and overnight. Exact location of the storms is uncertain, KABI has
the best chance of seeing storms this evening, but the other sites
could have a nearby thunderstorm as well. Gusty winds, lighting,
and hail will likely accompany these storms. Low clouds will move
in overnight, dropping CIGs to MVFR and IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  82  64  81 /  40  40  40  70
San Angelo  64  90  64  87 /  10  40  30  60
Junction    67  90  66  89 /  20  30  20  40
Brownwood   63  83  66  81 /  50  30  40  60
Sweetwater  62  84  63  80 /  20  40  40  80
Ozona       66  89  64  84 /  10  40  30  40
Brady       64  84  66  83 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...AP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
209 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-031915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
209 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible starting later
this afternoon and continuing into the early overnight hours,
mainly east of a Sweetwater to Sonora line. Some of these storms
could be severe, with very large hail as the main hazard. Locally
heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado will also
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe storms will be possible tomorrow late afternoon
and evening. The main hazards will be very large hail and
damaging winds, but an isolated tornado will be possible as well.
Thunderstorms chances will continue into the weekend. There's a
chance for strong storms Saturday. Localized flooding and
dangerous lightning will be possible with these storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will likely be needed later this afternoon and
evening.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
546 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     Hail             3 SE Tuxedo             32.91N 99.90W
05/02/2024  E1.00 Inch       Jones              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

CRD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
549 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     Hail             5 N Ballinger           31.81N 99.96W
05/02/2024  E2.50 Inch       Runnels            TX   Public

            on highway 83 Tennis Ball size.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     Hail             3 NNE Bronte            31.92N 100.29W
05/02/2024  E1.00 Inch       Coke               TX   Public

&&

CRD

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
611 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Tornado          4 S Tuxedo              32.88N 99.94W
05/02/2024                   Jones              TX   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported a tornado briefly touched
            down 5 miles northwest of Anson.

&&

MDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
614 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     Tornado          2 ESE Ballinger         31.73N 99.93W
05/02/2024                   Runnels            TX   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reported a tornado on the ground 2
            miles southeast of Ballinger.

&&

MDC