Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible Evening...

Early this afternoon, a dryline was situated across far west
Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline
during peak heating this afternoon, with storms moving eastward
across the area during the evening hours. Initial storms are
expected to be discrete, with supercells likely, then storms
should become more linear with time as they push east across the
area. Latest meso-analysis shows SBCAPES between 3000-4000 J/kg,
which will support intense updrafts with any storms that develop.
Effective shear is currently around 25 kts, but is expected to
increase this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west.
This will result in more widespread thunderstorm development later
this evening. Very strong instability, coupled with steep lapse
rates will support large to very large hail with any supercells
initially, along with a tornado threat. Storms should gradually
become more outflow dominant as they move eastward with time,
with damaging winds becoming more of a concern. Storms should
exit far southeast counties between 2 and 3 AM, although some
lingering showers may remain for a bit longer across eastern
portions of the forecast area.

Thunderstorms will possible again Thursday afternoon and evening,
as the dryline sets of across central sections and a weak cold
front enters the Big Country during the late afternoon hours. In
addition, several outflow boundaries will likely be present.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along any of these
features tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours. Very strong
instability will occur east of the dryline and south of the
front, along with deep layer shear between 35 and 40 kts. These
parameters will support severe storms capable of producing large
to very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
greatest risk for severe storms tomorrow will be across the
eastern two thirds of the Big Country, eastern portions of the
Concho Valley and the Heartland counties.

As for temperatures, expect lows tonight in the mid and upper
60s, with highs Thursday mainly in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
However, a few readings in the mid 90s will be possible across
the western Concho Valley west of the dryline.

&&

LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 122 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Late Thursday afternoon, a dryline will be situated across our
central counties. Meanwhile a cold front will be across the Big
Country and is forecast to slowly move south through the evening
hours, then stall somewhere across our central or southern counties.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during
the evening hours, ahead of the front and east of the dryline. Most
of this activity should be confined to our eastern counties. A few
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, with large hail and
damaging winds being the main hazards.

Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big
Country, behind the weak cold front, and in the upper 80s to lower
90s elsewhere. Overall, drier conditions are forecast on Friday,
although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
possible with the remnant cold front in the region.

Saturday into Sunday, West Central Texas will be in the southwest
flow aloft, with a weak remnant cold front in the region. Showers
and thunderstorms will be possible both days, with the higher rain
chances across the Big Country. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
with any thunderstorms. Highs will be slightly cooler, generally in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Drier conditions are expected next week
with much warmer temperatures. Highs by Tuesday will be in the low
to mid 90s, with highs on Wednesday in the approaching the upper 90s
in some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect the terminals
this evening and overnight. Will maintain TEMPO groups at the
terminals for convection based on latest high resolution model
data. Convection will end from west to east between 05Z-07Z.
MVFR ceilings currently at KSOA and KBBD, with additional MVFR
ceilings developing across the rest of the terminals overnight.
Could see some IFR ceilings across the southern terminals after
10Z. For now, will keep ceilings MVFR due to lower confidence in
IFR conditions and will re-evaluate for the 06Z package. Ceilings
expected to lift/scatter to VFR by early afternoon.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  64  90  62 /  30  70  10  20
San Angelo  88  64  94  65 /  30  70  10   0
Junction    87  66  90  69 /  40  70  Isolated to10  10
Brownwood   82  65  86  66 /  30  80  20  20
Sweetwater  88  64  90  62 /  40  70  10  10
Ozona       83  66  92  65 /  30  50  10   0
Brady       83  66  87  67 /  30  80  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
305 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-022015-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
305 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this late
this afternoon into tonight across all of West Central Texas.
Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes
will be possible. Locally heavy rainfall may also result in
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across much
of the area Thursday into the weekend. Some of the storms may be
severe Thursday afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be
large hail and damaging winds, although an isolated tornado is
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely this evening and may be necessary
again Thursday afternoon and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
911 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ065-066-072-073-139-154-020245-
Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Coke TX-Coleman TX-McCulloch TX-Concho TX-
911 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COKE...SOUTHWESTERN
COLEMAN...NORTHEASTERN TOM GREEN...NORTHWESTERN MCCULLOCH...RUNNELS
AND NORTHERN CONCHO COUNTIES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 910 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1929, or near Paint Rock, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coleman, Ballinger, Winters, Paint Rock, Maverick, Bronte, Miles,
Lowake, Glen Cove, Hatchel, Voss, Leaday, Eola, Rowena, Norton,
Benoit, Doole, Stacy, Mereta, and Ivie Reservoir Near Concho Park
Marina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in San Angelo.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 9961 3139 10012 3197 10037 3192 9935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 187DEG 35KT 3156 9989

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
913 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ168>170-020300-
Mason TX-Menard TX-Kimble TX-
913 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL KIMBLE...
SOUTHEASTERN MENARD AND NORTHWESTERN MASON COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT...

At 912 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Yates Crossing, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Junction, Menard, Yates Crossing, Saline, Long Mountain, London,
Hext, The Intersection Of Us-83 And Ranch Road 1773, Erna, Us-
377 Near The Kimble-
Menard County Line, The Intersection Of Highway 29 And Ranch Road
1222, Us-83 Near The Kimble-
Menard County Line, and The Intersection Of Us-83 And Highway 29.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 453 and 459.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in San Angelo.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9962 3047 9982 3093 9982 3085 9936
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 193DEG 25KT 3058 9969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
930 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ049-054-113-127-020300-
Fisher TX-Nolan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
930 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN JONES...NOLAN...
SOUTHERN FISHER AND NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM
CDT...

At 929 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Nolan, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sweetwater, Roscoe, Nolan, Trent, Maryneal, Noodle, Wastella,
Champion, Gannon, Lake Sweetwater, Camp Butman, The Intersection Of
Highway 70 And Ranch Road 53, The Intersection Of Ranch Road 608 And
Highway 147, Camp Boothe Oaks, I-20 Near The Nolan-
Mitchell County Line, and Us-84 Near The Nolan-Fisher County Line.

This includes Interstate 20 between Mile Markers 229 and 268.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 10000 3218 10006 3218 10065 3232 10067
      3235 10066 3260 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0229Z 177DEG 26KT 3228 10020

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
933 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

TXZ077-078-020300-
Schleicher TX-Sutton TX-
933 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SCHLEICHER AND NORTHWESTERN
SUTTON COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 932 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Us-277 Near The Sutton-
Schleicher County Line, or 8 miles southwest of Eldorado, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eldorado, The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 1828, The Intersection Of I-
10 And Ranch Road 1989, Us-277 Near The Sutton-
Schleicher County Line, and The Intersection Of Us-
190 And Ranch Road 2084.

This includes Interstate 10 between Mile Markers 388 and 395.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in San Angelo.

&&

LAT...LON 3057 10083 3089 10088 3105 10030 3070 10027
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 245DEG 44KT 3076 10068

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TP

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