Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1252 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon into the evening. Hail up to the size of baseballs
  and damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph are possible. There is
  also a low chance for a tornado or two. The greatest threat
  has expanded northwest slightly to areas along and south of a
  line from Pittsburg, KS to Warsaw, MO.

- Generally dry weather through the remainder of the period.
  Some near freezing to sub freezing temperatures possible
  Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Messaging remains largely on point for the severe weather event
today. There is a slight northward expansion of the severe
threat. We were messaging along and south of I-44 for the
greatest threat, but that is now along and south of a line from
Pittsburg, KS to Warsaw, MO. Still looking at destructive hail
to the size of baseballs and gusts up to 60-70 mph in the
strongest storms this afternoon and evening. The tornado threat
is small and very conditional on storms becoming rooted to
lingering outflow boundaries.

The area continues to rapidly destabilize early this afternoon,
with noon SBCAPE analyzed at 2,500-3,500 J/kg over much of the
area. SBCAPE should increase further to 3,000-4,000 J/kg over
the next few hours. Effective shear values are gradually
trending down, as expected with the decrease of the LLJ, and
should be in the 40-60kt range this afternoon and evening.
Nearly unidirectional shear profiles support discrete cells
growing upscale, as can be seen over Oklahoma right now.

Expectation is for storms to move in from the southwest while
also developing over the area early this afternoon. As
previously stated, the main threat is for hail and damaging
winds. The tornado threat is very conditional. There is an
outflow boundary that is becoming increasingly washed out over
the far northeastern CWA (Rolla to Lake of the Ozarks region).
As the boundary washes out and shifts north, it will be less of
a player for our area, but could still lead to some storm
enhancement. If any ideal boundary interactions occur, a low end
chance for tornadoes would exist.

The severe threat will end by late evening as a cold front moves
through from the northwest.

Friday will see much cooler conditions with highs in the mid 50s
to low 60s and gradually clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

With attention on the short term and no actionable targets of
opportunity, no changes were made to the NBM initialization in
the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will develop and moves through the
area this afternoon and evening, likely impacting all sites. The
strongest storms will be capable of destructive hail to the size
of baseballs and damaging winds of 60-70 mph. A cold front will
move through this evening, bringing an end to the thunderstorm
threat, but bringing in IFR to MVFR ceilings into Friday
morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
210 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather will
  continue to develop and move across the area this afternoon and
  evening. Hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts up
  to 70 mph and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.

  If storms can move across the same locations, then a localized
  flooding risk will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  There will be some chances of elevated fire weather conditions
  late this weekend into early next week.

  There is a chance for sub-freezing temperatures on Sunday night
  and again on Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

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