Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
223 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning thunderstorms possible in southeast Kansas into
  west central and central Missouri. Some large hail and
  damaging winds possible.

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5) for severe storms this
  afternoon into the evening. Hail up to the size of baseballs
  and damaging wind gusts up to 60-70 mph are possible. There is
  also a low chance for a tornado or two. The greatest threat
  is along and south of I-44.

- Generally dry weather through the remainder of the period.
  Some near freezing to sub freezing temperatures possible
  Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Current conditions and synoptic overview: A cluster of
thunderstorms has developed just east of Wichita shortly after
midnight in advance of an upper level shortwave over western
Kansas and dryline in the vicinity. This activity is shifting
northeast and will push into southeast Kansas and west central
Missouri overnight. An area of surface low presssure was located
over eastern Kansas with a warm front extending east across
northern Missouri. Temperatures across the warm sector over our
CWA were in the mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s. Water
vapor imagery and upper air analysis showed a cutoff low over
the Great Basin with broad diffluent flow out of the southwest
across the area.

Rest of the overnight into this morning: HREF progs continue to
transition the convection over eastern Kansas to the northeast
which may affect a small portion of our CWA which is currently
under a severe thunderstorm watch until 6 AM. Hail to the size
of golf balls and 60 mph winds will be possible with the
stronger storms which will likely be confined in our area to
southeast Kansas into west central and central Missouri.
Weakening should take place towards sunrise as it moves into
central Missouri.

This afternoon and tonight: Morning heating ahead of a
dryline/cold front in eastern Kansas will increase instability
over the area by the early afternoon. This combined with a broad
area of upper level diffluence should lead to convective
intitiation by early to mid afternoon over the area with the
main area expected along and southeast of the I-44 corridor.
Initial potential for supercells during the afternoon and early
evening with all modes of severe weather possible. The highest
risk will be with large hail to the size of baseballs. 60 to 70
mph winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. More
mixed mode storms with storm clusters and line segments will be
possible for the late evening into part of the overnight as this
convection shifts out of the area. Any repeat convection over
the same areas could lead to some localized isolated flooding.

Friday: A drier air mass will build into the area on Friday with
surface high pressure and all convection likely shifted
southeast of the area by Friday morning. Highs will be cooler in
the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Friday night - Sunday: Upper level cutoff low over the southwest
U.S. will not move much during this period as it remains caught
underneath a high amplitude ridge axis. On the front side of the
ridge, a northern stream jet will dive south into the plains.
Another cold front will push through the area late Saturday into
Saturday night, but this front should come through dry.

Sunday night - Tuesday: A Canadian air mass will then push into
the area behind the cold front. Lows by Monday morning will be
in the upper 20s in central Missouri to the low 30s near
freezing over far southern Missouri. Highs on Monday will only
be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows by Tuesday morning will be
coldest in the east to mid to upper 20s and low to mid 30s in
the west. The surface high will shift to the south of the area
on Tuesday with warmer conditions then building back into the
area from the west.

Wednesday: The cutoff low will begin to open up and shift
eastward by the middle of the week and may bring some showers to
the area late in the day Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

For the 06z TAFS, newly forming convection just east of Wichita
should stay north of the TAF sites as it shifts northeast into
southeast Kansas and west central Missouri overnight. Convection
initiation on Thursday is expected in the early to mid afternoon
hours and will continue through the evening hours. Gusty
southerly winds of 15 to 25 kts will be possible through the
day, with the front shifting the winds to the northwest during
the evening. Some strong to severe convection will be possible
and any severe convection could produce variable wind gusts up
to 60 mph with large hail also possible. We are expecting some
stratus to develop towards morning in the MVFR category. Within
the convection some MVFR to IFR conditions are expected.
Clearing will take place late in the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
347 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-150900-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
347 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Some strong to severe thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 60
  mph and hail to the size of quarters will be possible over
  southeast Kansas into central Missouri early this morning.

  A cold front will begin to push into the area this afternoon
  with numerous thunderstorms developing ahead of the front.
  Strong to severe storms with all modes of severe weather will be
  possible. Hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind gusts up
  to 70 mph and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.

  If storms can move across the same locations, then a localized
  flooding risk will also be possible.

  The best chance of severe storms will be from midday through
  midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

  There will be some chances of elevated fire weather conditions
  late this weekend into early next week.

  There is a chance for sub-freezing temperatures on Sunday night
  and again on Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for
  areas mainly along and south of the interstate 44 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ073-140830-
Bourbon KS-
257 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BOURBON COUNTY THROUGH 330 AM
CDT...

At 257 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles northeast of Moran to near Bronson to
10 miles south of La Harpe. Movement was east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott, Marmaton, Bronson, Uniontown, Fulton, Redfield, Mapleton,
Petersburg, Hammond, Devon, Harding, and Xenia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and west central Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9508 3803 9508 3804 9494 3804 9461
      3780 9462 3773 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0757Z 249DEG 43KT 3797 9505 3785 9511 3777 9524

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Nelson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
345 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

KSZ073-097-140915-
Bourbon KS-Crawford KS-
345 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BOURBON AND NORTHWESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...

At 345 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hepler to near Walnut to St. Paul.
Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott, Marmaton, Uniontown, Walnut, Redfield, Hepler,
Hiattville, Petersburg, Porterville, Pawnee Station, and Hammond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3775 9508 3786 9508 3795 9462 3777 9462
      3764 9479 3754 9509 3774 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 259DEG 35KT 3775 9496 3763 9505 3754 9519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Nelson