River Flood Warning 32, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
629 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are likely this afternoon/evening with
  large hail up to tennis balls, damaging winds up to 80 mph,
  and a few tornadoes possible. Chance of strong tornadoes along
  and east of HWY 63.

- Flood Watch in effect until 1 AM for most of the area.

- Expect a bit calmer week with temperatures near seasonal
  norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

SPC has upgraded areas east of HWY 65 to a Moderate Risk for
today. Latest surface analysis shows a warm front draped over SW MO
following a boundary from JLN to BBG. Probability of lightning over
a band of showers just north of the front from Butler to Jefferson
City has started to increase. Storm initialization is expected
to start over central MO and will continue to spread southward.
Rapid destabilization is occurring for areas east of HWY 65.
Dewpoints are in the mid 70s with agitated cumulus taking over
most of the area. Our 19z special balloon sounding is showing
40-55 knots of deep layer shear, mid-level lapse rates of 8
degrees/km with 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 4300 J/kg of MUCAPE with
a weak cap.

With a primed atmosphere in place this afternoon, supercells will be
favorable over the next few hours especially as the cold front over
central OK continues to push east. All modes of severe weather are
possible with golf ball to tennis ball sized hail and 60-70 mph wind
gusts with these storms. A few tornadoes are possible especially for
southeastern MO for areas east of HWY 63. Any supercells that
get going in that area could produce a strong tornado or two
(EF2+). Storms have already begun to pop up in NE OK and central
MO. Convection is expected to continue through the afternoon
into the evening hours. Storms should be out of the area by
10pm-12am.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 326 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

On Monday expect a break in active weather with highs in the 80s,
another strong upper level wave will drop southeast over the upper
Mississippi valley region and into the Great Lakes region Tuesday
into Tuesday night. This will keep us in a northwest flow pattern
into the middle of the week with surface high pressure being
reinforced over the region. Dry and slightly cooler temperatures are
expected during this period.

High pressure will shift eastward during the end of the week and
will allow moisture to start creeping back into the area over the
western CWA with precipitation chances increasing over the area from
late in the week into the upcoming weekend(20-50%).

Temperatures in the later part of the long term will be near
seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Storms are pushing east through the area and should clear the
TAF sites within an hour or so. Then, VFR ceilings will persist
through the night and Monday with light northwesterly winds.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
357 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-272100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
357 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Significant hail risk.
  Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Severe storms will continue to push across the eastern Ozarks
this afternoon/evening with the risk of tornadoes, damaging wind
gusts up to 80 mph and up to baseball size hail. In addition,
heavy rain may produce some areas of flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible late in the week into
next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight across
the entire area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Soria

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             Republic                37.12N 93.48W
05/26/2024  M1.00 Inch       Greene             MO   NWS Employee

            Quarter sized hail report from NWS Employee.

&&

AS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
705 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     Hail             1 NNW Battlefield       37.12N 93.37W
05/26/2024  E1.25 Inch       Greene             MO   Public

&&

AS

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