Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Springfield, MO

618 
WGUS73 KSGF 090454
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

MOC057-059-077-105-167-225-229-090800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0043.000000T0000Z-240609T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Dade MO-Dallas MO-Greene MO-Laclede MO-Polk MO-Webster MO-Wright
MO-
1154 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR 
EASTERN DADE, SOUTHERN DALLAS, GREENE, SOUTHWESTERN LACLEDE, 
SOUTHERN POLK, WEBSTER AND WESTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES...

At 1154 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 4 inches of rain 
have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 
hour. Flash flooding is already occurring. Significant additional 
rainfall is expected tonight into Sunday morning.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Springfield, Marshfield, Strafford, Greenfield, Willard, 
  Rogersville, Seymour, Ash Grove, Fair Grove, Mansfield, Fordland, 
  Conway, Walnut Grove, Pleasant Hope, Hartville, Niangua, 
  Morrisville, Everton, Diggins, Duncan, Dadeville, South 
  Greenfield, Aldrich, Arcola, Bassville, Olive, Elkland, Northview, 
  Turners, March, Ebenezer, Charity, Glidewell, Brighton, Sacville, 
  Cave Springs, Bois D'arc, Rader, Eudora and Odin.

This includes the following low water crossings...
  Wolf Creek at Highway AB, Asher Creek at 560 Road, Sons Creek at 
  County Road 113, Osage Fork at Auburn Road, Osage Fork at Highway 
  J, Woods Fork Gasconade River at Rippee Ford Road and James River 
  at Bell Ford Road.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 9393 3755 9301 3748 9250 3706 9247
      3709 9308 3739 9393

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

WFO SGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
653 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few scattered storms this afternoon. Strong to severe storms
  possible this evening and tonight. Good chance for heavy rain
  and flooding to occur tonight with many locations expected to
  receive 1 to 3 inches of rain. Pockets of repeated heavy rain
  may lead to some amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain and flash
  flooding.

- A cooler than average start to next week with highs Monday and
  Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a fairly zonal pattern across the
CONUS with the main jet energy along the northern tier states.
Some low level jet energy was from the southwest to northeast
across southern Missouri. Precipitable water values from the 12z
SGF sounding were 1.85" which eclipses the daily max
climatologically. MCS remnant clouds cleared out this morning
and we've been seeing some cumulus develop as the air becomes
unstable across the area this afternoon. Temperatures in the low
to mid 80s and dew points in the upper 60s to mid 70s were
yielding surface based CAPE values in the 1000-3500 j/kg range.

Rest of the afternoon and tonight: A surface boundary was
shifting into the area from the southwest and is expected to
become fairly stationary over the area tonight. PW values are
expected to remain very high over the area in the 1.8 to 2.2"
range. A few scattered storms may develop during the afternoon
and may be strong to severe with hail to the size of ping pongs
and wind gusts up to 60 mph. More numerous storms are then
expected this evening into the overnight with the same severe
weather risk along with widespread heavy rain. The best chances
for the heaviest rain will be along and north of the frontal
boundary roughly in a wide corridor from Nevada to Springfield
to Eminence. Repeated thunderstorms with heavy rain within this
corridor are expected tonight with widespread 1 to 3 inches of
rain. Some localized areas of 5 to 7 inches of rain can not be
ruled out which will likely lead to flash flooding. A flood
watch is in effect for the entire area through Sunday afternoon.

Sunday: Thunderstorms with heavy rain will be ongoing Sunday
morning along with likely flash flooding where the storms
trained across the same locations. The overall trend will be to
shift south into southern Missouri and eventually out of the
area with less coverage during the afternoon hours and mainly
over the south. The cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures
cooler on Sunday with highs generally in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early next week: We'll be on the western edge of the upper level
trough with northerly flow that will bring a strong area of
surface high pressure into the area. This will force the higher
dew points and temperatures to the south and should keep the
rain chances out of the area, while bringing a cooler and drier
air mass to the region for the beginning of next week. Highs
will generally be in the 70s on Monday and Monday night with
lows in the 50s.

Tuesday: The high pressure system will begin to shift to the
east and we will start to see some return moisture beginning to
creep back into the western CWA. An upper shortwave will dive
southeast and potentially clip our southwest CWA, so we have
some low pops (15-25%).

Wed - Fri: Moisture will continue to increase over the area
along with afternoon/evening instability so low pops will be in
the forecast on a daily basis. The main upper level support will
be well to the north of the area during this period, so
widespread severe storms are not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Storms have started to develop across central Missouri early
this evening. These storms will continue to develop and move
south through the area this evening. Additional storms have
developed across western Kansas and will continue to move east
and will move across the area tonight into Sunday. Showers and
storms will impact portions of the area into Sunday morning
before moving out of the entire area. MVFR to IFR conditions
will be possible with the storms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-100015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
702 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight hail risk.
  Slight thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Significant excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms have develop across portions of central
Missouri early this evening. These storms will continue to develop
and slowly move south through the evening hours across the area.
The strongest storms will have the potential of hail up to the
size of tennis balls and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Coverage of thunderstorms is then expected to increase tonight
with increasing potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected across portions of
the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern Kansas with localized
amounts of 5 to 7 inches.

While the exact location of the heaviest rain axis remains
uncertain at this time, the most likely broad corridor of heavy
rain will be centered from Nevada to Springfield to Eminence.

A Flood Watch is in effect for the entire area from 7 PM Saturday
to 1 PM Sunday.

The potential for severe storms will also continue into late
tonight with hail to the size of half dollars and damaging wind
gusts to 60 mph being the primary potential severe weather
hazards with the overnight hours. The main threat for damaging
wind gusts would come with any storms that form into line
segments.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The potential for thunderstorms will continue into Sunday with
the primary potential hazard being cloud to ground lightning.
Residual flooding may also be ongoing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening into tonight across
portions of the area.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
654 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     Hail             2 SSE Hermitage         37.91N 93.31W
06/08/2024  E0.88 Inch       Hickory            MO   Public

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
659 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     Hail             3 NE Nemo               37.91N 93.23W
06/08/2024  E1.25 Inch       Hickory            MO   Public

            Hail from quarters to Half Dollar size.

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
701 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0656 PM     Hail             3 S Goodson             37.66N 93.25W
06/08/2024  E1.00 Inch       Polk               MO   Public

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
715 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0658 PM     Hail             Nemo                    37.88N 93.26W
06/08/2024  E1.50 Inch       Hickory            MO   Public

&&

FEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
822 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     Hail             2 SW Bassville          37.32N 93.16W
06/08/2024  M1.00 Inch       Greene             MO   Storm Chaser

&&

EW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
839 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     Hail             1 NW Northview          37.30N 93.02W
06/08/2024  E1.00 Inch       Webster            MO   Public

&&

FEH