Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
237 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will cross the region tonight, bringing thunderstorms
this evening. This front shifts south of the area by Friday
allowing for cooler temperatures, but the proximity of the front
will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening

2) More thunderstorms on Thursday

Thunderstorms are will continue to develop this afternoon and storms
will be capable of strong winds gusts and very heavy rainfall.
Convective allowing models still indicate an more organized line
evolving as the storms cross east of the Blue Ridge and tracks
through the piedmont, mainly between 20Z/4PM and 00Z/8PM.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage after
sunset but never completely erode. A cold front will cross
through the area overnight turning the wind from the southwest
to the northwest. This will also bring clouds into the mountains
after midnight. Expect patchy fog to develop after sunset,
especially in locations that have rain in the afternoon and
evening.

Best probability of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening
will be in southern Virginia and northern North Carolina.

Lows tonight will be mild, limited by the surface dew points in
the mid 60s to lower 70s. Stayed close to NBM for highs on
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Near normal temperatures.
2. Showers/Storms limited to mainly southern sections Thursday night
through Friday night.
3. Better coverage of showers/storms on Saturday.

A look at the 17 July 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows a general area of troughiness extending from central
Quebec southwest into the Lower Ohio Valley. Within this general
region of troughiness, some ensemble averaged shortwave trough are
expected to head along roughly the US/Canadian border. This pattern
places our region within southwest flow aloft. At the surface
Thursday night into Friday, high pressure will be centered over the
Ohio Valley with a frontal boundary oriented w-e over the Deep
South. By Saturday into Saturday night, there may be a bit of
buckling northward of this front. Ensemble averaging offers only
small hint at this while some deterministic guidance and WPC
forecast frontal positions offer stronger support of this trend.

Output from the 17 July 00Z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures averaging about +13C to +15C across the
area Thursday night into Friday. By Saturday into Saturday night,
temperatures moderate a bit to around +17C across the region.
Precipitable Water (PW) values Thursday into Thursday night will be
on a tight nw-se gradient across the region with values around 0.75
over Southeast WV to around 1.50 inches over Southside Virginia. As
we progress into Saturday/Saturday night, values increase to a nw-se
gradient of around 1.50 inches to 1.75 inches.

The above weather scenario suggest that Friday may be the driest day
of this portion of the forecast with the front farther south, and
high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. As the front shifts a
bit farther north on Saturday, we may see better daytime coverage of
diurnal afternoon/evening activity before it dissipates after sunset.

Temperatures are expected to be near normal values for this time of
year.

Confidence in this section of the forecast is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Points:

1. Temperature trending to values above normal.
2. Shower/Storm chances trending higher.
3. Locally heavy rain possible by Tuesday/Wednesday.

A look at the 17 July 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500 mb Geopotential
heights shows the persistent trough to our northwest remaining in
place through Wednesday. However, on gradual change is expected to
be a weakening of this trough as an equally persistent ridge over
the Southeast US strengthens. This pattern still keeps us within a
southwest flow aloft, but with better ridging closed to overhead, we
may be more capped to surface based convection and see higher
temperatures. At the surface, the center of surface high pressure
heads north into Canada from the Ohio Valley, and a frontal boundary
tracks north to closer to the Ohio Valley. This would place our
region on the warm side of the front. Additionally, a ridge of
surface high pressure builds into the Southeast US.

Output from the 17 July 00z Ensemble Situational Awareness Table
shows 850mb temperatures average about +17C to +18C across the
region each day. PW values gradually increase through the period. By
Wednesday, values of 1.75 to 2.00 inches will be common across the
region. Those areas at or above the 2.00 inch mark will be within
the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology.

The above weather scenario offers moderating temperatures with
values a little above average through the period. Precipitation will
be on the increase as a front lifts north of the region. Once the
front is north of the region, the region will be in a more unstable
regime with above normal afternoon temperatures and higher humidity
values. By Tuesday/Wednesday, locally heavy rain will be possible
given above normal PW values.

Confidence in the above weather scenarios is low to moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Wednesday...

Thunderstorms are will continue to develop this afternoon and storms
will be capable of strong winds gusts and very heavy rainfall.

Visibility will be MVFR to IFR with the heavy rainfall,
otherwise VFR away from the storms.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in coverage after sunset
but never completely erode. A cold front will cross through the
area overnight turning the wind from the southwest to the
northwest. This will also bring IFR/MVFR ceilings into the
mountains after midnight. Expect ceilings to remain MVFR at KLWB
and KBLF through the 18Z end of the TAF forecast period.

Expect patchy MVFR fog to develop after sunset, especially in
locations that have rain in the afternoon and evening.

Average confidence in ceiling, visibility, and wind.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Front will be slow to exit the region, or be positioned just
south of the area into the weekend. Additional showers
and thunderstorms are expected in KDAN afternoon and evening on
Thursday and across the area on Friday through Monday. Expect
sub-VFR conditions with any of these storms.

Late night fog with result in IFR to MVFR visibility, otherwise
VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VAZ023-024-034-035-044>047-058-059-181000-
Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 553 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south
central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A stalled frontal boundary will continue the threat of storms each
day with the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain that may cause
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-043-181000-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll-Patrick-Henry-
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, south central Virginia and southwest
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Some heavy downpours
are also possible that may cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding on
Thursday afternoon and evening.

A stalled frontal boundary will continue the threat of storms each
day with the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain that may cause
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022-033-WVZ042>044-507-508-181000-
Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-
Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Franklin-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
306 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, west
central Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Some heavy downpours
are also possible that may cause localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A stalled frontal boundary will continue the threat of storms each
day with the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain that may cause
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VAZ023-024-034-172030-
Botetourt VA-Bedford VA-Rockbridge VA-
400 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKBRIDGE...NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND BOTETOURT COUNTIES THROUGH 430
PM EDT...

At 359 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Springwood, or near Buchanan, moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buchanan...
Glasgow...
Troutville...
Montvale...
Eagle Rock...
Fincastle...
and Lithia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central, south central and west central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3740 7940 3735 7993 3736 7994 3769 7990
      3774 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 261DEG 36KT 3753 7980

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
435 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VAZ047-172115-
Buckingham VA-
435 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BUCKINGHAM COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shipman, or 12 miles north of Bent Creek, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Buckingham...
Dillwyn...
New Canton...
Centenary...
Wingina...
and Gold Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central and south central Virginia.

&&

LAT...LON 3764 7825 3753 7833 3755 7882 3757 7881
      3759 7883 3760 7881 3763 7882 3764 7880
      3764 7872 3767 7872 3768 7869 3770 7869
      3768 7866 3768 7864 3771 7865 3775 7862
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3775 7844 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 259DEG 23KT 3770 7875

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AMS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
442 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Boonville          36.25N 80.74W
07/17/2024                   Yadkin             NC   911 Call Center

            Tree down on Dobbins Road.

&&

SHH