Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Debby will
increase slowly cross the area tonight into Friday. This will
result in a high risk of flooding, especially along and east of
the Blue Ridge. Debby pushes to the northeast by Friday night,
then cooler and drier air arrives by Saturday, and will bring
more tranquil weather for the weekend and start of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 340 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

   - High Risk of flooding today and tonight. Heavy rainfall
     will likely result in considerable to catastrophic flash
     flooding.

   - No change to tornado watch

Band of moderate to heavy rain was along the southern Blue ridge
then into Buckingham County. This band will be lifting slowly
north as the tropical system moves slowly north. Due to the slow
motion of the tropical storm, expecting another 12 hours of
strong upslope easterly wind and rainfall rates average of 1 to
2 inches per hour. So some spots reaching 6 to 9 inches for
storm total still appears reasonable.

The wind forecast will be adjusted again around 5PM when the
next tropical bulletin is issued for Debby. Little change is
expected. Higher elevations will continue to have the potential
for 25 to 40 mph gusts through midnight.

As Debby move into northern Virginia, winds will turn to the
south and west, ending the upslope enhancement. Once the region
is on the south side of Debby, rain will end and wind speeds
diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

    - Lingering light showers possible through Friday night
    - Mostly dry weather expected for the weekend.

Little to no adjustments. Details will be refined once TS Debby
leaves the area

The remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Debby will be into
the upper Mid Atlantic and New England by Friday night, as the
system gets lifted northward by an upper trough. Some lingering
showers in the area are possible overnight and into early Saturday
morning, as a surface front pushes into the region from the west.
Behind the front and tropical system, a cooler and drier airmass
will build into the area, and high pressure will become situated
overhead through Sunday. For the remainder of the weekend, weather
will be much drier, and only very limited chances of precipitation,
mainly in NC and southward, as the front stalls across the
southeastern states.

Temperatures will be cooler, near to a couple degrees below seasonal
normals, in the mid to upper 70s in the west, and mid 80s in the
east. Plentiful sunshine and lower dewpoints are expected through
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

     - Quieter weather pattern for beginning of the week
     - Temperatures near normal

Little to no adjustments. Details will be refined once TS Debby
leaves the area

A much quieter weather pattern is expected for the beginning of the
work week, with surface high pressure settled over the Ohio Valley
and Mid Atlantic region, keeping precipitation chances limited. Some
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
Tuesday afternoon, mainly along and south of the VA/NC border, as a
front drifts northward into the Carolinas, but probabilities are low
at this time.

Temperatures will be near normal through the period, in mostly the
70s west of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s east.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM EDT Thursday...

Widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings across southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina with TS Debby. The TS is moving north
slowly so no changes to ceilings are expected through 00Z/8PM.
Visibility will be mainly VFR but the heavier rain will result
in MVFR ceilings. Winds will be gusting 25 to 40kts.

The center of Debby will track close to KROA and KLYH. By 12Z
Debby is expected to be far enough north to shift the winds to
the northwest. The rain will gradually move north out of the
local area between 06Z/2am and 12Z/8AM.

Winds will be lighter on Friday. Expecting IFR to LIFR ceilings
to be slow to lift Friday morning.

Average confidence on visibility and wind.
Below average confidence on ceiling.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Remnants of Debby continue moving N through the region through
Friday. Improving flight categories expected as Debby moves
away from the region Friday night.

High pressure moves into the region this weekend and VFR is
expected outside of areas of morning fog through early next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 AM EDT Thursday...

A rare High Risk for excessive rainfall has been issued for a
large portion on the area extending from the Blue Ridge of
Virginia and east into the Virginia and North Carolina Piedmont.
The last issued high risk for our area occurred in May of 2020
where significant flooding occurred with that event.

Expecting heavy rainfall to increase across the area today from
east to west as Debby continues to push inland across the
Carolinas, and then eventually north along the Blue Ridge
tonight. Very high ambient moisture associated with the tropical
remnants will allow very high efficient rainfall rates. Overall
much of the area remains in a drought, so should be able to
handle lower rainfall rates to an extent. However, the concern
is with convectively enhanced rainfall bands training
repeatedly across the mountains and Piedmont, coupled with PWAT
values exceeding 2.25 inches. This will produce large amounts of
rain within a short period of time, thus resulting in the high
risk of excessive rainfall.

Main stem river flooding is also expected in the Dan and
Roanoke River basins. Areawide 4 to 8 inches is expected and
likely to see several locations along the Roanoke and lower Dan
to go into flood stage by Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for VAZ010>020-022>024-
     032>035-043>047-058-059.
NC...Flood Watch through Friday evening for NCZ001>006-018>020.
WV...Flood Watch through Friday evening for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AMS/AS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...AMS/BMG
HYDROLOGY...BMG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
646 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

VAZ007-009-092300-
Tazewell-Smyth-
646 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ010>020-022>024-032-WVZ042>044-507-508-092300-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-
Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
646 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ005-VAZ033-034-043-092300-
Rockingham-Franklin-Bedford-Henry-
646 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
south central Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ006-VAZ035-044>047-058-059-092300-
Caswell-Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-
Charlotte-
646 PM EDT Thu Aug 8 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 615 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

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