Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
359 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid with scattered to widespread showers and storms
ahead of a cold front today, some could be severe. Reinforcing
cold front Sunday. Mostly dry and milder for Labor Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 355 PM Saturday...

Convection continues across portions of the area this
afternoon. Based on the current distribution and track of rain
and storms seen on radar, have freshened up PoPs for the next
couple of hours.

As of 120 PM Saturday...

Initial convection has fired up along convergence associated with a
pre-frontal trough extending roughly along the Ohio River. While the
environment is not overly supportive of well organized convection,
substantial dew point depressions preceding the broken line and
steep low level lapse rates coupled with weak shear will allow for
frequent core collapses yielding localized strong to damaging wind
gusts associated with downbursts. These progressive downbursts may
also start to congeal into a more consolidated cold pool which could
yield less localized gusty to marginally damaging winds, although
confidence in this is not especially high. Although shear is rather
weak and wet bulb zeros are relatively high couldn't also rule out
some marginally severe hail cores, especially with any storm scale
interaction. Efficient rainfall production will yield heavy rainfall
rates in convection, with localized extremely heavy rates where the
cores are falling out of storms. Given mostly dry antecedent
conditions and very localized nature of very high rates, would not
expect significant water issues outside of any sustained higher
rates over built up areas. A severe thunderstorm watch will be in
effect for portions of the area through 7 PM tonight.

Several hours of recovery in the wake of the initial line should
allow the atmosphere to reload for a second round of showers and
storms later this afternoon along the cold front, although with
weaker mid-level lapse rates and narrower surface dew point
depressions work with, not too confident in chances for much
additional severe convection.

With rainfall through this afternoon and evening, should see at
least patchy fog or very low stratus developing overnight into
Sunday morning prior to a final wave of showers, perhaps with
isolated thunder along a secondary cold front before we head back
into a drier pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Saturday...

High pressure settles in for Labor Day with temperatures
returning to near normal values for this time of the year. The
only item of concern will be some very dry air (-30C at H700)
aloft that will partially mix down during the afternoon.
Locations that didn't see much rain from today/Sunday's activity
could see fuels continue to dry out. Winds will remain on the
lighter side, 5-10mph, mitigating fire weather concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Saturday...

The dry weather continues through at least Wednesday night,
depending upon how much southern stream energy arrives between
the next northern stream trough approaches late in the week.
Central guidance continues to reflect low-end PoPs Thursday
through the end of the week. There would be minimal if any
chance for thunderstorms.

If there is a southern stream flat wave Thursday through Friday,
there may not be much moisture left for the cold front driven
by the northern stream trough next weekend, and there would be
minimal if any chance for thunderstorms. If not, then the better
chance for showers and thunderstorms will be over the weekend.

Central guidance reflects highs returning to normal Tuesday and
then maybe a little above normal Wednesday, before being
suppressed by southern stream cloud and the chance for rain
through the balance of the week, while lows ride close to
normal. Low afternoon RH values persist through Wednesday at
least across northern and central portions of the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

An initial line of convection will cross the forecast area this
afternoon affecting CRW/CKB/EKN/BKW (having already moved through
HTS/PKB). Briefly gusty winds and locally very heavy rainfall can be
expected with passage of the line, generally affecting any terminal
less than 90 minutes. An additional round of showers and storms will
be possible later this afternoon as a cold front approaches, but
these should generally be weaker than the initial line. Showers will
linger into the evening with patchy fog developing overnight,
especially where heavy precipitation occurs. Another round of
showers and perhaps some thunderstorms will be possible with a
secondary cold front toward morning.

Winds generally westerly 4-8KTs except gusty and erratic near
convection.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorms could vary this
afternoon. Fog may be denser than advertised tonight, especially
with any breaks in upper level cloudiness.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JLB
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

WVZ005-008-010-011-013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-011745-
Wayne-Jackson WV-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-
Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 666 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ006-007-009-
011745-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Cabell-
Mason-Wood-
133 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia, and portions of northern and western West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Stronger thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce
locally gusty to damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Charleston WV
355 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 WNW Cairo             39.25N 81.23W
08/31/2024                   Ritchie            WV   911 Call Center

            1 large tree down 1/4 mile from route 50 in
            Petroleum. No power lines involved. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

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