Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Raleigh, NC

263 
WWUS52 KRAH 091907
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
207 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

NCC057-123-167-091930-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240109T1930Z/
Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-Stanly NC-
207 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EST
FOR DAVIDSON...NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN STANLY
COUNTIES...

At 207 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Pine Hall to near Kernersville to 7 miles
southeast of High Rock Lake, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Badin Lake, Thomasville, Denton, Richfield, New London,
Gordontown, Fish Tales Marina, High Rock Lake, and Whip-O-Will
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for central North
Carolina. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 900 PM EST for
central North Carolina.

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Straight line winds can blow down trees, power lines, and damage
mobile homes and other buildings. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure
until the storm has passed. Stay away from windows as flying debris
generated by damaging winds can be deadly.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Raleigh.

&&

LAT...LON 3593 8026 3594 8005 3552 8007 3544 8006
      3544 8033 3550 8030 3551 8019 3552 8018
      3558 8021 3568 8033 3572 8032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 230DEG 47KT 3635 8011 3618 8011 3556 8024 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

AS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
130 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system will sweep across the region through
tonight. High pressure will build over the Southeast states
Wednesday through Thursday, then lift to our north early Friday as
another storm system approaches Friday and Friday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

...Threat continues from a powerful storm system that will bring
multiple hazards to central NC today and tonight including a risk of
severe weather including tornadoes, heavy rainfall capable of flash
flooding, and strong winds...

The overall forecast reasoning and sensible weather outcomes remain
largely unchanged with just minor updates to the timing of the
convection and some other details such as temperatures and dew
points.

The latest surface analysis and observations show that the wedge
front has retreated into the Triad with a wind gust to around 45mph
at KGSO as the front moved through and the dewpoint jumped from 40
to 49. Much of the rest of central NC in sandwiched in between the
wedge front and a maritime tropical boundary where dewpoints are in
the upper 50s and lower 60s. That boundary that marks the edge of an
unstable airmass now stretches from the Crystal Coast across the
southern Coastal Plain and into northeast NC. This boundary will
lift northwest over the next few hours and as it shifts northwest,
more general wind gusts in excess of 35 mph can be expected.

The more unstable air mass has developed and moved inland a little
faster than expected across the southern and eastern Carolinas with
the dew point up to 62 at Clinton and 63 at Marion SC. With a bigger
lull in the precipitation than expected, the air mass to the
southeast of Raleigh is a bit more primed for stronger convection
than perhaps previously thought and it is a bit worrisome. The
recent HRRR brings a forecast Sig Tor parameter of 2-4 across the
southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain between 4 and 8pm.
Will need to monitor this closely.

The previous AFD captures much of the forecast reasoning well and is
shown below.

From 350 am...

Little has changed in regards to the overall synoptic
pattern that will evolve today and tonight. Surface obs reveal a 993
mb surface low over SW MO at the moment. This surface low is
projected to track into the Great Lakes tonight, deepening to 978
mb. At the same time, a 1028 mb high still resides off to our NE,
offshore of the northern Mid-Atlantic. Dewpoints over us are still
in the low/mid 30s but as a warm front currently over the deep south
migrates north within strengthening warm/moist advection, dewpoints
should reach the upper 40s in our southern zones near daybreak. A
secondary area of low pressure, currently over northern MS, is
forecast to track in far NW SC to far west NC this afternoon before
strengthening near the NC/VA border this evening. It is this
secondary low that will ultimately allow for rich boundary-layer
moisture and theta-e to advect into central NC this
afternoon/evening as it brings the warm front through the area and
combines with an extremely strong wind shear profile for severe
winds and possible embedded tornadoes.

On the timing front, morning light/moderate rain will become
increasingly moderate/heavy by late morning/afternoon, mainly US-1
westward. Heavier rain will then spread east this afternoon/evening
over the Coastal Plain. On the severe front, based on a suite of
guidance from the HREF and the NCAR Neural Network product, timing
for severe storm potential appears most favored in the 1/2 PM to 8/9
PM period, starting earliest in the southern/western Piedmont
between 1-2 PM, the Sandhills/Triangle region between roughly 3-6
PM, and over the Coastal Plain between 5-8 PM. We will be watching
an initial band of showers track through late this morning to
afternoon. This initial band could bring some isolated tornadoes
over the eastern parts of central NC, but stability should limit the
overall threat with this first wave. However, the better chance will
be in the afternoon/evening when low to even some mid 60s dewpoints
advect northward along/east of US-1 and allow for surface
destabilization. The threat will exist for a strong line of storms
capable of straight-line damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The
same uncertainty we have been discussing the past few days still
holds, as to whether we can sufficiently destabilize to realize the
shear, but HREF does suggest 500 or more J/kg of CAPE from the
Sandhills to the Triangle and Coastal Plain, where it would appear
the greatest risk may form with overlapping shear/buoyancy. Highs
should manage to top out in the low to upper 60s.

Outside of storms, strong gradient flow with the vigorous system
will continue to support wind advisory criteria gusts out of the
south/southeast between 35 and 45 mph. Even if rain-cooled air and
clouds limit mixing potential for these higher gusts to materialize,
stronger storms should otherwise mix down the higher winds aloft.

Most of the storm activity should race east of central NC by 8-10 PM
as the surface cold front moves east, though some lingering spotty
showers may push through in the late-evening/overnight owing to the
strong mid-level trough still rotating through with very steep lapse
rates developing in the low-levels amid strong CAA. While the
current wind advisory goes until 10 PM, it may need to be extended
as the pattern and forecast soundings support a secondary surge of
35-40 mph gusts late tonight into the early overnight hours with the
steep lapse rates and 40-50 kt flow in the 925/850 mb layer. Lows
should dip into the upper 30s to low 40s by sunrise Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Tuesday...

Although today's cold front will be well to the east, a strong
pressure gradient will result in wind gusts remaining quite strong
during the morning hours, between 25 and 35 mph, with wind then
dropping below 30 mph in the afternoon. Cloud cover should briefly
increase during the late afternoon and evening as a trough moves
through, then skies should clear out overnight and into Thursday.
Highs will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s on Wednesday, with
highs about 5 degrees warmer on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night will
be from the mid 20s to the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Early Friday morning a deep trough moving across the Central Plains
will shift east over the TN and OH valley by late Friday. At the
surface a low pressure system centered over Arkansas will lift
quickly to the NE with a warm front first lifting across the area
from the south, then a cold front moving across the region from west
to east early Saturday morning. There will be an ample amount of
moisture and lift across the area with PW values of around 1 inch by
the late morning. With average PWs for this time of year around 0.40
inch, expect another possibility of heavy rain and excessive
rainfall that could lead to localized flash flooding. For the timing
of the rainfall expect the NW Piedmont to see rain fall early Friday
before widespread rain fall will occur across the entire CWA and
last well into the evening. Latest model data is showing a few hours
of instability in the late afternoon and early evening hours for
areas along and east of US1. All of central NC is highlighted in
SPC's day 4, with the threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated
tornadoes. This event is expected to be similar to today event but
not as extravagant, as in we will have non-convective wind gusts of
20 to 25mph Friday and Saturday with gusts  of 30 to 40 mph.
Temperatures will fluctuate with Fridays highs in the low to upper
60s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s.

As the cold front clears the area early Saturday, highs will be in
the upper 40s to low 50s then expecting to drop into the mid/upper
20s NW to low 30s SE. Winds over night will continue resulting in
apparent temperatures (feels like) in the teens and low 20s. Sunday
will also have breezy conditions with westerly winds of 10 to 15 mph
and gust of 20 to 25 as high pressure moves rapidly across the
Southeast. Temperatures Sunday will be in the 40s during the day and
similar to Saturday night low in the  mid/upper 20s NW to low 30s
SE.

Monday another deepening upper level trough east of the Rockies
begins to swing across the lower 48 and into the region Monday
afternoon and Tuesday. NW flow and down slope winds will typically
not produce significant snowfall, so for now this will be just
another rain maker. However when the rain moves out Tuesday morning,
cold air is expected to rush in behind and if the rain is slower
than the cold air a few flurries could be possible in the far
northern counties along the NC/VA border.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

TAF period: A line of thunderstorms extending across the western
Carolinas will move across central and eastern North Carolina in the
next several hours. There are already gusty winds up to 40 kt
outside of thunderstorms, but think that the greatest wind threat
will come from the line of thunderstorms. In addition, low level
wind shear is present at all terminals. IFR conditions are also
expected at all terminals, with improvement to VFR expected to occur
during the evening hours. Have broadly gone with 30-35 kt wind gusts
continuing through the night, although models are showing that these
gusts may not be consistent - if a low level inversion develops,
there could intermittently be low level wind shear instead of
surface gusts. Skies should clear by sunrise, although gusts will
continue in the 25-30 kt range.

Outlook: Dry VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
Wednesday into Thursday night. Another storm is likely to bring
restrictions and rain Friday and Friday night. Dry VFR conditions
are expected again Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Precipitation:

January 9:
KGSO: 1.22/1933
KRDU: 2.18/1895
KFAY: 1.47/1912

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 9 AM EST this morning through this evening
for NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-083-084.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this
evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJT
NEAR TERM...Blaes/Kren
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

NCZ042-043-077-078-086-088-089-101830-
Johnston-Wilson-Harnett-Wayne-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

An Enhanced risk, level three of five, of severe thunderstorms will
exist this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, showers and
storms will be capable of producing a quick 1.5 to 2.5 inches of
rain, which may produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Lastly,
southwesterly wind gusts of 35-40 mph may result behind the system
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another storm system may bring additional heavy rain and strong
gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ085-101830-
Scotland-
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 5 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

An Enhanced risk, level three of five, of severe thunderstorms will
exist this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line wind gusts
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, showers and
storms will be capable of producing a quick 1.5 to 2.5 inches of
rain, which may produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Lastly,
southwesterly wind gusts of 35-40 mph may result behind the system
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another storm system may bring additional heavy rain and strong
gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ021-038-039-073-074-083-084-101830-
Forsyth-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-Richmond-
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 5 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A Slight risk, level two of five, of severe thunderstorms will exist
this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, showers and storms
will be capable of producing a quick 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, which
may produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Lastly, southwesterly
wind gusts of 35-40 mph may result behind the system tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another storm system may bring additional heavy rain and strong
gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-022>026-040-041-075-076-101830-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Chatham-Wake-Moore-Lee-
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

A Slight risk, level two of five, of severe thunderstorms will exist
this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, showers and storms
will be capable of producing a quick 1.5 to 3 inches of rain, which
may produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Lastly, southwesterly
wind gusts of 35-40 mph may result behind the system tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another storm system may bring additional heavy rain and strong
gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

NCZ011-027-028-101830-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-
122 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A Slight risk, level two of five, of severe thunderstorms will exist
this afternoon and evening. Damaging straight line wind gusts and
isolated tornadoes will be possible. In addition, showers and storms
will be capable of producing a quick 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain,
which
may produce urban and poor drainage flooding. Lastly, southwesterly
wind gusts of 35-40 mph may result behind the system tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Another storm system may bring additional heavy rain and strong
gusty winds Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1118 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1052 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 ENE East Laurinburg   34.78N 79.37W
01/09/2024  M41 MPH          Scotland           NC   ASOS

            ASOS station KMEB Maxton.

1016 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 ESE Colfax            36.10N 79.95W
01/09/2024  M46 MPH          Guilford           NC   ASOS

            ASOS station KGSO Greensboro.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1158 AM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SW Lexington          35.78N 80.30W
01/09/2024  M38 MPH          Davidson           NC   AWOS

            AWOS station KEXX Davidson Cty Ap.

1127 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 E Hope Mills          34.98N 78.88W
01/09/2024  M37 MPH          Cumberland         NC   ASOS

            ASOS station KFAY Fayetteville.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1207 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Alamance           36.05N 79.47W
01/09/2024  M35 MPH          Alamance           NC   ASOS

            ASOS station KBUY Burlington.

&&