River Flood Warning 53, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
337 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Helene has moved over Kentucky where the remnant
circulation will sit and spin through the weekend. Eventually the
circulation will drift east to the Atlantic Ocean, bringing a
renewed chance of rain for the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

The primary band of rain associated with what is now Tropical
Depression Helene will clear eastern counties in the next hour.
Farther to the west, there is some partial clearing across the
forecast area, with some scattered showers to the west of US-1.
However, there has not been any lightning outside of the major band
that moved through the region, and no additional thunderstorms are
expected. A chance of showers will persist across the region through
sunset, and conditions should dry out after that. Wind gusts up to
35 mph will continue through sunset, then wind gusts will drop below
20 mph and decrease further overnight. With clearing skies
overnight, lows should drop into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

The remnants of Helene should have wrapped up into the vertically
stacked cyclone over the mid-MS Valley by early Sat. The cyclone
will slowly shift eastward through KY/TN Sat/Sat night, with deep
swly flow dominating over central NC between the cyclone to the west
and anticyclone between the Southeast US coast/Caribbean Sea and
Bermuda. A surface wave could lift newd along the Southeast
US/Carolina coast Sat night. Generally expect the weather to be dry,
however there could be a stray shower over the southern Coastal
Plain as the surface wave approaches late Sat night. Highs should
range from around 80 degrees NW to mid 80s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Central NC will remain situated between the cyclone to the NW and
anticyclone to the southeast Sun/Sun night. The cyclone will
gradually weaken and eventually open into a trough Mon/Mon night,
while the anticyclone remains over or just NE of the Caribbean. The
trough and embedded low should finally progress eastward through the
mid-Atlantic Tue/Tue night, while the ridge to the SE flattens out.
A trailing s/w should move through the region on the heels of the
trough Wed/Wed night as the northern stream trough moving through
ctl/ern Canada amplifies swd. The sub-tropical ridge should again
build through the Southeast US through the end of the week. A cold
front could approach/move into/through the area mid to late week as
high pressure moves eastward through the mid-Atlantic, however
details remain uncertain at this time. The best chance for
showers/storms will be Mon/Tue as the trough/low moves through the
region. Temperatures may be fairly steady Sun-Tue, with highs
ranging from mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Friday...

TAF period: The heaviest line of showers seems to be breaking up,
meaning that RWI may not receive as intense rainfall as other TAF
sites have received. Nevertheless, it is the last remaining TAF site
with potential for heavy rainfall. Scattered showers are expected
through the afternoon at the other terminals, but any visibility
restrictions due to showers would be extremely brief. Overcast MVFR
ceilings will continue at all sites through the late afternoon
before clouds begin to scatter out in addition to lifting. As for
winds, widespread gusts to 25 kt are expected through the afternoon,
dropping to 20 kt around sunset and dropping to 5-10 kt by midnight.

Outlook: Although Saturday and Saturday night will be dry, the
remnants of Helene will begin to shift east from Kentucky to DC,
bringing a chance of rain from Sunday to Tuesday (particularly
across northern terminals). Conditions will then dry out Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temperatures:

September 27:
KGSO: 69/2011
KRDU: 73/2011
KFAY: 73/2017

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-021>028-
038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007-021>025-038>042-
073>077-083>086-088-089.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

NCZ007-021>025-038>042-073>077-083>086-088-089-281930-
Person-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-
Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ008>011-026>028-043-078-281930-
Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Wilson-Wayne-
330 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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