Tornado Warning 38, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight.
Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado
warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding
issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of
60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS
Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and
western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be
expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has
trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell
thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma
should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of
producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time
frame.

Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall
which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these
storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding
for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed
that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and
southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public
should not let their guard down after a storm has passed.
Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the
office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people
being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who
can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles
that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed
warnings!

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms should exit our forecast area tomorrow morning.
ADditional forecast details will be given with later packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across western and
northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through the afternoon
with the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes. Recent
short-term guidance has suggested that storms will be arriving a
bit later into central Oklahoma (around 3-5 PM), and these storms
will also bring the threat of large hail and tornadoes
(potentially strong). Tonight, there is a high potential for
repeated thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across parts of
central, southern, and southeastern Oklahoma. This activity could
exit our forecast area as early as 7-8 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  79  55  79 / 100  20   0  10
Hobart OK         56  80  51  81 /  70   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  59  81  56  83 / 100  10   0   0
Gage OK           50  77  46  81 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     60  79  49  77 / 100  40  10  10
Durant OK         63  77  61  82 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
405 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-282115-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
405 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms... There is a Slight to Enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms across far western Oklahoma and adjacent western
north Texas to a Moderate risk across much of the remainder of our
Oklahoma and north Texas area including all of central into
southeast Oklahoma. Hazards with severe storms will include up to
baseball size hail, 60-80 mph downburst wind gusts, and a few
tornados possible. Most of our area will be in a Medium risk for
a few tornados. The severe risk timing across western Oklahoma
and western north Texas would be through midnight while the risk
timing across central through southeast Oklahoma will be through
the overnight hours.

.Heavy rainfall...
Heavy rainfall by slow moving storms and any storm training could
result in flash flood with the highest risk area overnight across
all of central through southeast Oklahoma.

.SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT STATEMENT...

Storm spotter groups and emergency management personnel across all
counties served by the Norman office should prepare for severe
weather operations through the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms... Ongoing severe thunderstorms will likely be
winding down after sunrise across southeast Oklahoma. The risk for
severe thunderstorms returns Sunday afternoon generally along and
east of I-35 with the highest risk (slight) across southeast
Oklahoma. Up to quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts will be
the main severe risks with an additional low risk for tornados
across southeast Oklahoma.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday night and every day
through Friday across our area.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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