Tornado Warning 24, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
122 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Dangerous convective environment in place today and into tonight.
Storms have already fired out west with severe and tornado
warnings already issued this morning. A special balloon sounding
issued by the NSSL near Weatherford shows a concerning profile
with 2500 J/kg SBCAPE, 0-1km SRH near 25 kts, effective shear of
60 knots all indicative of a volatile air mass in place. A PDS
Tornado Watch has already been issued for western Oklahoma and
western north Texas with the expectation this will likely be
expanded eastward within the next several hours. Guidance has
trended a bit slower with the forward progression of supercell
thunderstorms, and the latest indication is central Oklahoma
should be impacted by dangerous supercell thundrestorms capable of
producing strong to violent tornadoes within the 3 PM to 9 PM time
frame.

Complicating this is the high potential for very heavy rainfall
which will quickly lead to flash flooding issues where these
storms set up. The WPC has issued a high risk of flash flooding
for parts of east-central Oklahoma, though it should be stressed
that there is uncertainty with the placement of this. Central and
southern Oklahoma are at risk of dangerous flash flooding issues.

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms are expected, and the public
should not let their guard down after a storm has passed.
Many public events are occurring today and with people out of the
office/school, there is a high concern in our office of people
being out on the roads or away from shelters. We urge those who
can to remain near a shelter today as the environment resembles
that of previous historic tornadic outbreaks. Please heed
warnings!

Thompson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Thunderstorms should exit our forecast area tomorrow morning.
ADditional forecast details will be given with later packages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across western and
northern Oklahoma and western north Texas through the afternoon
with the potential for large hail and strong tornadoes. Recent
short-term guidance has suggested that storms will be arriving a
bit later into central Oklahoma (around 3-5 PM), and these storms
will also bring the threat of large hail and tornadoes
(potentially strong). Tonight, there is a high potential for
repeated thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across parts of
central, southern, and southeastern Oklahoma. This activity could
exit our forecast area as early as 7-8 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  79  55  79 / 100  20   0  10
Hobart OK         56  80  51  81 /  70   0   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  59  81  56  83 / 100  10   0   0
Gage OK           50  77  46  81 /  10  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     60  79  49  77 / 100  40  10  10
Durant OK         63  77  61  82 /  90  90  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OKZ004>008-010>013-
     015>020-022>032-035-037>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ086-089-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
257 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-280800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
257 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE..Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms today across
a large portion of northern into central and southern Oklahoma and
portions of western north Texas. An enhanced risk covers much of
the remainder of western north Texas and Oklahoma.

Multiple rounds of severe storms will be possible across the area
today and tonight. Hail to the size of baseballs, damaging wind
gusts of up to 80 mph and tornadoes, some of which could be
strong, will all be possible.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will also result in a risk for
flooding by late today and tonight particularly near and east of
I-35.

Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon
across northwest Oklahoma.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
There will be a chance of severe thunderstorms Sunday across
southeast Oklahoma. A chance of thunderstorms will return across
the area Wednesday and continue through Friday. Although
widespread severe is not expected a few strong to severe storms
appear possible.

.Flooding...
Chance of heavy rainfall and possible flooding will continue
Sunday morning across southeast Oklahoma.

.Fire Weather...
Near critical fire weather conditions may develop Tuesday
afternoon across northwest Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

OKZ019-020-026-272015-
Payne OK-Logan OK-Lincoln OK-
244 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Lincoln, east central Logan and southwestern Payne Counties through
315 PM CDT...

At 244 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Meridian, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stillwater, Perkins, Langston, Coyle, Meridian, and Lake Carl
Blackwell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 9711 3584 9737 3616 9724 3615 9685
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 208DEG 34KT 3588 9722

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Mahale

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
307 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Hail             Hobart                  35.03N 99.10W
04/27/2024  E1.25 Inch       Kiowa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING, time is radar estimated.

&&

JH