Tornado Warning 1, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
636 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The primary short-term forecast concern will be the potential for
impactful storms to occur from late this morning through this
evening across the southeastern quarter of our forecast area. All
severe hazards will be possible, though very large hail and flooding
will be the primary concerns.

Regional surface observations show a sharp dryline across our area
from Baylor County to Kiowa County, then bulging northeastward
toward Grant County. At apex of this bulge, convection developed
after 05Z and moved off into ICT's CWA. Similar development
through daybreak is unlikely, but with a very moist and weakly
capped environment it cannot be ruled out.

The show should get going quite early today, with some potential for
storm initiation to occur by 16Z/11:00 am CDT, though 17-18Z/12:00-
1:00 pm CDT seems more likely. By then, a cold front that can
currently be found in the Panhandles and central KS will overtake
the dryline bulge, and will be roughly oriented from near Kay County
to Oklahoma County to Knox County. Roughly where the cold
front/dryline intersection occurs, somewhere just south of the OKC
metro, will be the likeliest spot for convection initiation.

Initial thunderstorm development should be rather explosive, with
most models showing a reservoir of 3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
minimal capping. Given the presence of an impulse within the STJ
showing up on short-range guidance as well as deep-layer
shear/storm motions roughly parallel to the cold front, updraft
crowding will likely occur pretty rapidly, with storms initially
developing as supercells and by midafternoon coagulating into one
or more multicell clusters. With comparatively cold temperatures
aloft (-15C at 500 mb and -20C levels at about 19,000 feet),
initial supercells will be able to produce hail efficiently, aided
in part by 70 knots of cloud layer shear. Some of this hail may
be very large with the potential for one or more reports of
tennis-ball-sized stones. Hail production (and in particular the
production of very large hail) will be tempered before too long by
the number of updrafts; thus, the likeliest time for very large
hail will be 1 to 3 hours after convection initiation.

The tornado risk is highly conditional and will be largely dependent
on storm-scale morphology. The background environment will be
characterized by upwards of 100 J/kg of 0-3 km CAPE, which, in
conjunction with a slow-moving front, might preferentially favor
hybrid/stretching tornadogenesis within relatively discrete storms
along the front early in the storm cycle. As more storms develop and
cold pools merge, storms will be more dependent on the environment
to provide streamwise vorticity. To this end, the low-level jet will
be displaced to the east of our CWA, which is leading to rather
small hodographs lacking streamwise vorticity (effective SRH will
likely remain below 150 m^2/s^2). The tornado risk will probably be
maximized across our far southeastern counties by mid-to-late
afternoon, as models are showing some backing of the surface winds
in the area. Damaging winds will also be possible within storm
clusters as DCAPE values are expected to be around 1,100 J/kg and
moist mid-levels will favor wet microbursts.

In addition to severe hazards, heavy rainfall will be a concern as
storms mature and move eastward. The saving grace from this
perspective will be rather fast storm motion with some component off
of the cold front, especially with multicell clusters. However, both
the HRRR and NAM show PWATS in the 1.40-1.50 inch range in southeast
Oklahoma - compared to OUN sounding climatology, this is essentially
unprecedented in mid-March. Therefore, thunderstorms could produce
heavy rain very efficiently and some areas may see excessive runoff
occur rapidly.

A renewed surge of the cold front as well as convective overturning
of the atmosphere will reduce our storm risk as the clusters move
out of our area around sundown. Widespread pressure rises and
breezy north winds will bring in much drier and cooler air for our
lows tonight.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The primary forecast challenge in the long-term is to delineate the
potential for periods of rain (and maybe a few embedded
thunderstorms) to occur between Friday and Sunday in our area. There
appear to be two primary windows where this may occur:

-Tomorrow during the morning across western north Texas and in the
afternoon across western Oklahoma. This will occur in response to
increasing 700 mb warm advection. Rain totals will be light outside
of embedded thunderstorms.

-Saturday afternoon through Saturday night across western north
Texas and far southern Oklahoma, in response to an ejecting wave
from the cutoff low to our west. Rainfall totals may be higher from
this event (possibly up to half an inch).

Otherwise, temperatures will remain "cool" (at or near or seasonal
averages) from tomorrow through Monday. Further periods of rain may
occur early next week as the cutoff low finally attempts to eject,
and temperatures should begin to rise back above normal beginning on
Tuesday.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR cigs expected in moist sector/east of dryline this morning,
especially near and east of KLAW/KOKC/KPNC, before mixing out west
to east in the first 2 to 4 hours of forecast. MVFR cigs expected
to last much of the day at KDUA. Will confine mention of TSRA to
KDUA this afternoon into the evening. Northerly wind shift will
make quicker progress than previously forecast, but stronger north
winds will spread over region this evening and overnight as lower
level ridge surges south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  77  45  62  42 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76  44  61  40 /   0   0  40  10
Wichita Falls TX  81  48  65  45 /  20  10  40  10
Gage OK           69  39  61  35 /   0   0  30   0
Ponca City OK     75  44  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  52  66  47 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
247 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-150800-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
247 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along and southeast of a
line from Wichita Falls to Stillwater. Some of those storms may be
severe, with hail to the size of tennis balls, winds up to 70 mph,
and a low to medium tornado risk. Excessive rainfall is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
A low chance of thunderstorms will persist on Friday and
Saturday, primarily across southern Oklahoma and western north
Texas.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OKZ028>030-039-040-141700-
Stephens OK-Pottawatomie OK-Cleveland OK-Garvin OK-McClain OK-
1113 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Garvin,
northeastern Stephens, southeastern Cleveland, southwestern
Pottawatomie and southeastern McClain Counties through NOON CDT
...

At 1113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles north of Wanette to 6 miles north of
Velma. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pauls Valley, Maysville, Elmore City, Wayne, Paoli, Tribbey, Wanette,
Byars, Foster, St. Louis, Rosedale, Macomb, Antioch, Pernell,
Whitebead, and Trousdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 9681 3481 9709 3447 9766 3459 9778
      3491 9732 3520 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 228DEG 12KT 3503 9705 3455 9767

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Mahale

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OKZ045-TXZ090-141645-
Jefferson OK-Clay TX-
1121 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Jefferson and north central Clay Counties through 1145 AM CDT
...

At 1121 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles east of Byers, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waurika, Byers, Addington, and Sugden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 9814 3404 9823 3429 9795 3429 9788
      3416 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1621Z 227DEG 36KT 3408 9810

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MDU

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