Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
322 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

We will see a brief lull in the convection across our area as the
severe storms have moved into eastern Oklahoma.  The cold
front/dryline surface boundary has moved through the OKC area and
just east of the H.E. Bailey Turnpike in southcentral Oklahoma.
Severe thunderstorms expected to redevelop in the moist warm
unstable sector ahead of the surface boundary in the next couple of
hours with the risk area this evening across southeast Oklahoma.
Moderate surface-based instability and strong deep-layer shear
within the warm sector could maintain organized severe thunderstorms
with supercells capable of producing large damaging hail (up to
baseballs), damaging downburst wind gusts (up to 80 mph) and a few
tornados.  An additional flood risk will also persist as heavy rain
could result in some localized flooding.  The cold front may not
make it through our southeast CWA until midnight when the severe
risk shifts east and entirely out of our southeastern counties.

A cut-off low system stalled over the Southwestern U.S. will start
expelling a series of shortwave disturbances downstream over the
Southern Plains bringing periods of rain to a few elevated storms
back into our area Friday and early into the long-term period. Will
have rain POPs (20-40%) in place near the Red River for Friday
afternoon as well as our western north Texas counties in fairly
stable air.  Another shortwave will be expelled over the Southern
High Plains. Although deterministic models & NBM keep our west dry
as well as very low probabilities with the ensembles, several HRRR
runs paint rain across our west with a moist forecast sounding, so
will add very low rain POPs across southwest Oklahoma. The remainder
of our area should stay dry although cooler and cloudy with
northeast winds as temperatures return to more seasonably average.
Did go slightly cooler than NBM with Fridays MaxT using the CONSMOS
guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The cut-off system never gets recaptured by the main westerly polar
flow and continues to spin over Southwestern U.S. and gradually
weaken until dissipating by the middle of next week.  However before
weakening, it will continue expelling shortwaves over the Southern
Plains with rain & elevated storm chances for Saturday across all of
western through southcentral Oklahoma and western north Texas.  Will
include a mention of thunder due weak instability/MUCAPE values over
northern Texas.  Although moisture will be saturated at the mid-
levels, not entirely confident when lower levels will moisten up
based on model forecast soundings so will keep Saturday rain POPs
around 50% with very low POPs (20%) for Sunday restricted across far
southwest Oklahoma and adjacent northern Texas.  A large open trough
in the polar jet flow digging through the eastern half of the
country will push a cold front across the Central Plains.  Sundays
cold front could push partially across our forecast area reinforcing
our northerly winds with an additional shot of Canadian-based air
resulting in a colder Sunday night while maintaining seasonably
average temperatures on Monday. High surface pressure settles
through Monday night with a warming trend starting Tuesday as winds
shift out of the southwest under a building upper ridge in the
weaker southerly subtropical jet flow.

As the aforementioned cut-off low dissipates Wednesday, both GFS &
ECMWF develop an open trough over the Southwestern U.S. where the
pressure heights had fallen, with that trough digging through the
Southern Plains during the latter half of next week.  Strong
southerly flow starting Wednesday could bring a return of low-level
moisture transport coming up from the gulf and perhaps forming a
dryline across the Southern High Plains through western Texas. With
our forecast area in the warm moist unstable sector with surface
boundaries to our west and north and an upper disturbance
approaching, will see thunderstorm chances return during the latter
half of next week.  We may not see the cold front from this system
push through until late Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR cigs expected in moist sector/east of dryline this morning,
especially near and east of KLAW/KOKC/KPNC, before mixing out west
to east in the first 2 to 4 hours of forecast. MVFR cigs expected
to last much of the day at KDUA. Will confine mention of TSRA to
KDUA this afternoon into the evening. Northerly wind shift will
make quicker progress than previously forecast, but stronger north
winds will spread over region this evening and overnight as lower
level ridge surges south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  45  62  42  66 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         44  61  41  62 /   0  20  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  48  63  46  64 /   0  20  10  40
Gage OK           39  57  35  64 /   0  10   0  20
Ponca City OK     44  64  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         52  64  48  68 /  90  10  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-152045-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
336 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the evening hours
across southeast Oklahoma. Some of these storms will be capable of
producing supercells with severe risks of hail up to baseball
size, damaging downburst wind gusts up to 80 mph, and a medium
potential for a few tornados. Heavy rainfall under some of these
storms could also result in some localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible across southern Oklahoma and
western north Texas on Friday through Saturday night. Severe
storms are not expected.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
602 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Hail             3 SW Ada                34.75N 96.70W
03/14/2024  E3.25 inch       Pontotoc           OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball+ (3.25 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
607 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     Hail             1 S Ada                 34.76N 96.67W
03/14/2024  E2.75 inch       Pontotoc           OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Baseball (2.75 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
612 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Hail             2 SSW Byng              34.83N 96.67W
03/14/2024  E2.50 inch       Pontotoc           OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Tennis Ball (2.50 in.).

&&

RRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
614 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Hail             2 E Ada                 34.78N 96.63W
03/14/2024  E4.00 inch       Pontotoc           OK   Public

&&

RRB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     Hail             2 NE Mill Creek         34.42N 96.79W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Johnston           OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&