Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
122 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

 - Another morning with much needed rain across parts of the area.
   A few strong storms possible, along with heavy rainfall and
   isolated flooding possible.

 - Heat returns to parts of the area today and area-wide tomorrow
   Monday. Heat Advisory for southwest Oklahoma and western north
   Texas Sunday. Heat headlines likely through the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across
central into eastern Oklahoma this morning. No severe weather is
expected with this activity, however very high precipitable water
will result in efficient rain producers and heavy rainfall with
some isolated flooding possible.

This will also keep temperatures bit cooler along and east of I-35
compared to normal, although not as cool as was seen Saturday.
Farther west where more insolation is expected along with increasing
southerly low level flow and warming boundary layer temperatures
will respond and climb back into the upper 90s and lower 100s. These
temps combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in afternoon
heat indices between 105 and 110. Will likely go with a Heat
Advisory for portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

For tonight, there remains a chance for a few showers/storms across
northern Oklahoma with better chances shifting north and northeast
of the area. South winds will remain breezy which will aid in
keeping overnight temperates quite a bit warmer than we have had
the last few nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Although upper ridge begins to build back north still appears there
will be a low chance for a few showers along the Oklahoma Kansas
border Monday night. Otherwise, the middle of the week will be much
warmer with little in the way of rain chances. Will also see a
stretch beginning Monday and possible lingering through much of the
week for daily need of heat headlines as hot and humid conditions
remain in place.

Models then diverge as we go toward the end of the work week wrt to
strength or lack of upper ridge and possible trough/front and some
additional rain chances. For now will keep some low pops and
slightly cooler(less hot) temperatures, especially across the
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mostly MVFR conditions are expected, though there is a low chance
of LIFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms as they move
through KPNC and KSWO early Sunday morning. Precipitation exits
the area mid- to late- morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  76  95  77 /  40  20  10   0
Hobart OK        101  78 102  76 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  80 103  78 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           99  71  95  71 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     84  71  94  72 /  90  50  10  30
Durant OK         94  76 100  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ033>039-044-045.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
344 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-120845-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
344 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Showers and thunderstorms across the area this morning will
continue to move east out of the area during the afternoon hours.
A few strong and isolated severe storms will be possible with
quarter size hail possible. Heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices of 105 to 110 will be likely across
southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for that area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

.Thunderstorms...
Low chances for thunderstorms will continue Sunday and Monday
night, mainly across northern Oklahoma.

Storm chances return Thursday and Friday.

.Heat...
Dangerous heat and heat indices are expected across much of the
area Monday through Saturday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ015>017-110930-
Dewey OK-Custer OK-Blaine OK-
339 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Custer,
central Blaine and eastern Dewey Counties through 430 AM CDT...

At 339 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles southeast of Taloga to 4 miles east of
Fay. Movement was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watonga, Taloga, Greenfield, Oakwood, Eagle City, Fay, and Hucmac.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3614 9895 3588 9821 3584 9821 3563 9843
      3593 9906
TIME...MOT...LOC 0839Z 279DEG 17KT 3602 9891 3581 9857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
346 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ028-029-110900-
Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
346 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Cleveland
and west central McClain Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 345 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cole, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Norman, Noble, Goldsby, Dibble, Washington, and Cole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3504 9765 3512 9767 3520 9742 3501 9740
TIME...MOT...LOC 0845Z 265DEG 10KT 3509 9759

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ010-011-015>018-024-111000-
Major OK-Kingfisher OK-Woodward OK-Canadian OK-Dewey OK-Custer OK-
Blaine OK-
426 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern
Kingfisher, northeastern Custer, Blaine, eastern Dewey, southwestern
Major, northwestern Canadian and southeastern Woodward Counties
through 500 AM CDT...

At 426 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Mutual to 6 miles east of
Taloga to 4 miles south of Eagle City to 6 miles north of Calumet.
Movement was southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Reno, Watonga, Taloga, Geary, Okarche, Seiling, Canton, Calumet,
Longdale, Hitchcock, Greenfield, Oakwood, Mutual, Canton Lake,
Quinlan, Orion, Concho, Chester, Eagle City, and Cestos.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3565 9782 3543 9817 3553 9831 3555 9831
      3555 9835 3620 9930 3650 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 294DEG 24KT 3631 9911 3605 9886 3587 9857 3570
9816

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
433 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ027-028-111000-
Grady OK-McClain OK-
433 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Grady
and west central McClain Counties through 500 AM CDT...

At 433 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Blanchard, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Blanchard, Goldsby, Dibble, Washington, and Cole.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3500 9743 3503 9773 3515 9772 3518 9747
      3517 9746
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 274DEG 13KT 3510 9764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
434 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

OKZ024-027-111000-
Grady OK-Canadian OK-
434 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Grady and
southeastern Canadian Counties through 500 AM CDT...

At 434 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Minco, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mustang, Tuttle, Union City, and Minco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor NOAA Weather
Radio, local radio stations or available television stations for
additional information and possible warnings from the National
Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3523 9804 3538 9804 3543 9769 3526 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 249DEG 18KT 3532 9795

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

30

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