Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
122 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

 - Another morning with much needed rain across parts of the area.
   A few strong storms possible, along with heavy rainfall and
   isolated flooding possible.

 - Heat returns to parts of the area today and area-wide tomorrow
   Monday. Heat Advisory for southwest Oklahoma and western north
   Texas Sunday. Heat headlines likely through the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to move east across
central into eastern Oklahoma this morning. No severe weather is
expected with this activity, however very high precipitable water
will result in efficient rain producers and heavy rainfall with
some isolated flooding possible.

This will also keep temperatures bit cooler along and east of I-35
compared to normal, although not as cool as was seen Saturday.
Farther west where more insolation is expected along with increasing
southerly low level flow and warming boundary layer temperatures
will respond and climb back into the upper 90s and lower 100s. These
temps combined with dewpoints in the 60s will result in afternoon
heat indices between 105 and 110. Will likely go with a Heat
Advisory for portions of southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas.

For tonight, there remains a chance for a few showers/storms across
northern Oklahoma with better chances shifting north and northeast
of the area. South winds will remain breezy which will aid in
keeping overnight temperates quite a bit warmer than we have had
the last few nights.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 119 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Although upper ridge begins to build back north still appears there
will be a low chance for a few showers along the Oklahoma Kansas
border Monday night. Otherwise, the middle of the week will be much
warmer with little in the way of rain chances. Will also see a
stretch beginning Monday and possible lingering through much of the
week for daily need of heat headlines as hot and humid conditions
remain in place.

Models then diverge as we go toward the end of the work week wrt to
strength or lack of upper ridge and possible trough/front and some
additional rain chances. For now will keep some low pops and
slightly cooler(less hot) temperatures, especially across the
north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Mostly MVFR conditions are expected, though there is a low chance
of LIFR conditions with showers and thunderstorms as they move
through KPNC and KSWO early Sunday morning. Precipitation exits
the area mid- to late- morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  89  76  95  77 /  40  20  10   0
Hobart OK        101  78 102  76 /  20  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 101  80 103  78 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           99  71  95  71 /  20  20  10  10
Ponca City OK     84  71  94  72 /  90  50  10  30
Durant OK         94  76 100  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ033>039-044-045.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111945-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected from late tonight
into early Sunday morning, particularly across the northern one-
half of Oklahoma. A few storms may produce small hail. Heavy
rainfall and localized flooding will also be possible. Severe
weather is not currently anticipated.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across
portions of central and eastern Oklahoma. Concern for small hail
and heavy rainfall will continue with thunderstorms, though
severe weather is not currently anticipated.

Additional low chances for thunderstorms will continue Sunday
night and Monday night, mainly across northern Oklahoma.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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