Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

An upper-level low can be seen on satellite imagery to our north
over Indiana and Ohio, and surface observations show a cold front
just beginning to enter western TN. With abundant moisture present
as seen by dewpoints in the 70s and a PWAT of 1.63 inches on this
morning's sounding, storm coverage will once again increase this
afternoon with storms favoring areas east of I-65. Frequent
lightning and heavy rain will be the main concerns with any storm,
but damaging winds can't be ruled out and this lines up with the
current SPC Day 1 Outlook which places this area in a marginal
risk this afternoon.

Coverage will gradually come to an end after sunset, and the
upper-level low will slowly move to the east as the cold front
clears the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday as
highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s. With drier air in place,
most will be storm-free, too, but isolated to scattered storms
will continue across the Plateau with troughing still in place in
this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Weather conditions look to be much quieter as we head into the new
week as an area of high pressure builds over the Rockies and dry
northwest flow prevails over Middle TN. Dry conditions are
expected through at least the middle of next week, and high
temperatures will creep into the mid and upper 90s. Unfortunately,
this also means the return of triple digit heat index values.

There is uncertainty in the weather pattern by the time we get
into Thursday with models and ensembles advertising two primary
scenarios. The first scenario that is strongly supported by the
European and its ensembles and some of the Canadian ensembles is
that the upper-level high over the Rockies builds back towards the
east, producing strong ridging over the central CONUS. However,
the GFS and its ensembles support the breakdown of that high as a
troughing pattern reemerges over the Midwest area. Scenario 1
supports dry and very hot conditions while scenario 2 produces
more chances for rain and perhaps a break from the heat.
Unfortunately, scenario 1 appears to be the most likely scenario
at this point with about 60% of all ensembles supporting it. But
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

A weak boundary will continue its way through middle TN. Have
included storms for BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB. In addition models are
hinting at low VIS and CIG overnight...especially for the plateau.

Winds will be westerly and swing around to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  91  72  94 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    70  89  70  92 /  10   0  10   0
Crossville     66  82  64  86 /  30  50  10  10
Columbia       70  90  69  93 /  10  10  10   0
Cookeville     68  82  67  86 /  20  40  20   0
Jamestown      66  81  65  86 /  30  50  10   0
Lawrenceburg   70  88  69  91 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   70  90  69  93 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        70  91  70  94 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
147 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ062-021915-
Rutherford TN-
147 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smyrna, or 8 miles northwest of Murfreesboro, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Walterhill, and Lascassas.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 68 and 81.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 51 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8619 3578 8633 3590 8659 3607 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 293DEG 20KT 3596 8646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
149 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ034-021915-
Fentress TN-
149 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FENTRESS COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Jamestown, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Fentress County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3637 8473
      3635 8473 3635 8474 3634 8474 3634 8484
      3652 8488 3654 8480 3653 8478 3652 8473
      3644 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 260DEG 15KT 3645 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13