Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1243 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

An upper-level low can be seen on satellite imagery to our north
over Indiana and Ohio, and surface observations show a cold front
just beginning to enter western TN. With abundant moisture present
as seen by dewpoints in the 70s and a PWAT of 1.63 inches on this
morning's sounding, storm coverage will once again increase this
afternoon with storms favoring areas east of I-65. Frequent
lightning and heavy rain will be the main concerns with any storm,
but damaging winds can't be ruled out and this lines up with the
current SPC Day 1 Outlook which places this area in a marginal
risk this afternoon.

Coverage will gradually come to an end after sunset, and the
upper-level low will slowly move to the east as the cold front
clears the area. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Saturday as
highs range from the mid 80s to low 90s. With drier air in place,
most will be storm-free, too, but isolated to scattered storms
will continue across the Plateau with troughing still in place in
this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Weather conditions look to be much quieter as we head into the new
week as an area of high pressure builds over the Rockies and dry
northwest flow prevails over Middle TN. Dry conditions are
expected through at least the middle of next week, and high
temperatures will creep into the mid and upper 90s. Unfortunately,
this also means the return of triple digit heat index values.

There is uncertainty in the weather pattern by the time we get
into Thursday with models and ensembles advertising two primary
scenarios. The first scenario that is strongly supported by the
European and its ensembles and some of the Canadian ensembles is
that the upper-level high over the Rockies builds back towards the
east, producing strong ridging over the central CONUS. However,
the GFS and its ensembles support the breakdown of that high as a
troughing pattern reemerges over the Midwest area. Scenario 1
supports dry and very hot conditions while scenario 2 produces
more chances for rain and perhaps a break from the heat.
Unfortunately, scenario 1 appears to be the most likely scenario
at this point with about 60% of all ensembles supporting it. But
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

A weak boundary will continue its way through middle TN. Have
included storms for BNA/MQY/CSV/SRB. In addition models are
hinting at low VIS and CIG overnight...especially for the plateau.

Winds will be westerly and swing around to the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  91  72  94 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    70  89  70  92 /  10   0  10   0
Crossville     66  82  64  86 /  30  50  10  10
Columbia       70  90  69  93 /  10  10  10   0
Cookeville     68  82  67  86 /  20  40  20   0
Jamestown      66  81  65  86 /  30  50  10   0
Lawrenceburg   70  88  69  91 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   70  90  69  93 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        70  91  70  94 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
147 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ062-021915-
Rutherford TN-
147 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 147 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smyrna, or 8 miles northwest of Murfreesboro, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Walterhill, and Lascassas.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 68 and 81.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 51 and 64.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8619 3578 8633 3590 8659 3607 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 293DEG 20KT 3596 8646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
149 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ034-021915-
Fentress TN-
149 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FENTRESS COUNTY
THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 149 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Jamestown, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Fentress County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3637 8473
      3635 8473 3635 8474 3634 8474 3634 8484
      3652 8488 3654 8480 3653 8478 3652 8473
      3644 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1849Z 260DEG 15KT 3645 8477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
211 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ062>064-021945-
Cannon TN-Rutherford TN-De Kalb TN-
211 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN DE KALB...NORTHEASTERN
RUTHERFORD AND CANNON COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 211 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Murfreesboro to near Smithville. Movement
was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Murfreesboro, Smithville, Woodbury, Walterhill, Auburntown,
Lascassas, Bradyville, Milton, and Readyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8567 3585 8585 3585 8587 3583 8589
      3572 8616 3588 8644 3600 8640 3593 8621
      3597 8606 3596 8602 3597 8602 3603 8575
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 291DEG 26KT 3587 8635 3597 8588

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
217 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ028-021945-
Wilson TN-
217 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 216 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Juliet, or 12 miles east of Nashville, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Belinda City, Rural Hill, Green Hill, and
Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 223 and 236.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 68 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3619 8632 3607 8642 3614 8652 3614 8653
      3615 8654 3616 8656 3618 8657 3624 8659
      3628 8655
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 302DEG 17KT 3621 8657

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
218 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ033-034-021945-
Fentress TN-Overton TN-
218 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OVERTON AND CENTRAL
FENTRESS COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Algood to 7 miles east of
Jamestown. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Allardt, Crawford, Grimsley, and Rickman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 8469 3637 8470 3638 8472 3637 8473
      3635 8473 3635 8474 3633 8474 3633 8477
      3632 8479 3630 8480 3629 8487 3628 8488
      3624 8488 3616 8516 3627 8543 3649 8471
      3643 8469 3641 8466 3640 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 286DEG 14KT 3624 8534 3642 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
221 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

TNZ027-021945-
Davidson TN-
221 PM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON COUNTY
THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Antioch, or 8 miles southeast of Nashville, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Forest Hills, Oak Hill, Antioch, Berry Hill, and Percy Priest Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 212 and 217.
 Interstate 65 between mile markers 75 and 81.
 Interstate 24 between mile markers 52 and 62.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3606 8682 3615 8677 3614 8656 3598 8664
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 286DEG 14KT 3605 8672

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13