Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light showers continue across our west and some new showers have
developed across our southeast. The main focus of the forecast is
this afternoon as we monitor the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The biggest question is will the atmosphere
be allowed to destabilize enough for strong convection to happen?
Looking to our west, there are pockets of clearing in the clouds,
so if that trend continues east behind these ongoing showers,
then we'll likely be able to achieve higher instability. Another
question is will enough dry air filter in aloft to increase our
lapse rates? Profiles are pretty saturated this morning, so
unless more dry air builds in in the mid-levels, this will also
hurt strong thunderstorm development. The line of thunderstorms has
developed over northern MS and western TN and is moving east-
northeast towards ours area.

IF we are able to destabilize and lapse rates steepen a bit more
to get a good updraft going, storms will have the potential to
produce damaging winds and hail. The latest short-term guidance
suggests that our atmosphere will destabilize with surface-based
instability values near 2000 J/Kg and mid-level instability (for
hail potential) near 1500 J/Kg this afternoon. 0-6km shear is
still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30
kts, but that's still enough for thunderstorms to work with.
Models show mid-level lapse rates reaching 7 C/km or a touch
higher, specifically across our southeastern counties. For the
wind threat, DCAPE and PWAT values are quite high for this
afternoon, lending to the thought of some heavy downpours coming
out of the storms, increasing wind potential. In terms of tornado
threat, 0-1km storm-relative helicity values are showing at or
below 100 ms2/s2, so tornadoes are lower on the list of threats
today. I'm hesitant to say the threat is zero because the
ingredients are there, even if some are a bit lacking. Regardless,
be weather aware this afternoon in the event a warning be issued
for your area! Timing of thunderstorm impacts looks to be from 1pm to
7 or 8pm tonight.

A cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight, and
as the surface low continues to spin out of the area, some scattered
showers can be expected to linger into the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Shower activity will decrease and things should mostly clear out
come Wednesday night. A ridge will quickly build in aloft that will
help squeeze our temperatures up into the mid 80s by Thursday and
also give us a rain-free day. But as quickly as that ridge moves in,
it moves out, and we'll be on to our next round of unsettled weather
Friday and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts this weekend are near
1".

Weekend temperatures look to hang right around 80, warming into
the mid 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Low cigs will rise to VFR early this afternoon ahead of a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The line will move from west
to east from 20z to 02z. IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected in
any thunderstorms due to low cigs, low vis, and heavy rain. Gusty
winds will also be possible with any thunderstorms. Things will
dry out by the overnight and we could see some patchy fog develop
towards daybreak mainly in areas to the west of Nashville.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
late morning into the afternoon. Southerly winds up to 10 knots
becoming westerly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  77  62  84 /  50  60  10  10
Clarksville    60  75  59  82 /  50  50  10  10
Crossville     57  70  57  77 / 100  90  20  10
Columbia       60  77  59  84 /  40  50  10  10
Cookeville     59  71  59  78 /  90  90  20  10
Jamestown      57  71  57  76 / 100  90  20  10
Lawrenceburg   61  76  59  83 /  50  50  10  10
Murfreesboro   61  77  59  83 /  60  70  10  10
Waverly        59  76  58  83 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller

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