Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Light showers continue across our west and some new showers have
developed across our southeast. The main focus of the forecast is
this afternoon as we monitor the potential for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms. The biggest question is will the atmosphere
be allowed to destabilize enough for strong convection to happen?
Looking to our west, there are pockets of clearing in the clouds,
so if that trend continues east behind these ongoing showers,
then we'll likely be able to achieve higher instability. Another
question is will enough dry air filter in aloft to increase our
lapse rates? Profiles are pretty saturated this morning, so
unless more dry air builds in in the mid-levels, this will also
hurt strong thunderstorm development. The line of thunderstorms has
developed over northern MS and western TN and is moving east-
northeast towards ours area.

IF we are able to destabilize and lapse rates steepen a bit more
to get a good updraft going, storms will have the potential to
produce damaging winds and hail. The latest short-term guidance
suggests that our atmosphere will destabilize with surface-based
instability values near 2000 J/Kg and mid-level instability (for
hail potential) near 1500 J/Kg this afternoon. 0-6km shear is
still on the low-ish side on most of the new models; between 25-30
kts, but that's still enough for thunderstorms to work with.
Models show mid-level lapse rates reaching 7 C/km or a touch
higher, specifically across our southeastern counties. For the
wind threat, DCAPE and PWAT values are quite high for this
afternoon, lending to the thought of some heavy downpours coming
out of the storms, increasing wind potential. In terms of tornado
threat, 0-1km storm-relative helicity values are showing at or
below 100 ms2/s2, so tornadoes are lower on the list of threats
today. I'm hesitant to say the threat is zero because the
ingredients are there, even if some are a bit lacking. Regardless,
be weather aware this afternoon in the event a warning be issued
for your area! Timing of thunderstorm impacts looks to be from 1pm to
7 or 8pm tonight.

A cold front is expected to push across the area later tonight, and
as the surface low continues to spin out of the area, some scattered
showers can be expected to linger into the day Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Shower activity will decrease and things should mostly clear out
come Wednesday night. A ridge will quickly build in aloft that will
help squeeze our temperatures up into the mid 80s by Thursday and
also give us a rain-free day. But as quickly as that ridge moves in,
it moves out, and we'll be on to our next round of unsettled weather
Friday and into the weekend. Rainfall amounts this weekend are near
1".

Weekend temperatures look to hang right around 80, warming into
the mid 80s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Low cigs will rise to VFR early this afternoon ahead of a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms. The line will move from west
to east from 20z to 02z. IFR/LIFR conditions can be expected in
any thunderstorms due to low cigs, low vis, and heavy rain. Gusty
winds will also be possible with any thunderstorms. Things will
dry out by the overnight and we could see some patchy fog develop
towards daybreak mainly in areas to the west of Nashville.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
late morning into the afternoon. Southerly winds up to 10 knots
becoming westerly overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  77  62  84 /  50  60  10  10
Clarksville    60  75  59  82 /  50  50  10  10
Crossville     57  70  57  77 / 100  90  20  10
Columbia       60  77  59  84 /  40  50  10  10
Cookeville     59  71  59  78 /  90  90  20  10
Jamestown      57  71  57  76 / 100  90  20  10
Lawrenceburg   61  76  59  83 /  50  50  10  10
Murfreesboro   61  77  59  83 /  60  70  10  10
Waverly        59  76  58  83 /  40  50  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baggett
LONG TERM....Baggett
AVIATION.....Mueller

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ093-142015-
Wayne TN-
246 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM CDT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Waynesboro, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Wayne
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8775 3540 8761 3528 8791 3539 8798
      3540 8797 3541 8797 3541 8798 3542 8800
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 241DEG 25KT 3538 8787

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
310 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ025-057-142045-
Hickman TN-Dickson TN-
310 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL DICKSON AND HICKMAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, the public reported a cluster of strong thunderstorms
near Centerville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Public.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Centerville, Bon Aqua, Pinewood, Primm Springs, Lyles, and
Nunnelly.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 163 and 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3607 8740 3586 8721 3576 8723 3565 8758
      3582 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 242DEG 18KT 3578 8755

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

cc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
318 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ093-142045-
Wayne TN-
318 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Olive Hill, or 13 miles west of Waynesboro, moving northeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Clifton, and Flatwoods.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8802 3540 8797 3542 8798 3547 8788
      3547 8784 3549 8780 3549 8775 3548 8770
      3533 8758 3516 8798 3529 8798 3530 8800
      3530 8802 3535 8801 3536 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 239DEG 28KT 3529 8798

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
342 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ058-093-094-142115-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-
342 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS...WAYNE AND
WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Waynesboro to 7 miles northwest of
Underwood-Petersville. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrenceburg, Hohenwald, Waynesboro, Loretto, Collinwood, St. Joseph,
Gordonsburg, Henryville, Westpoint, Iron City, and Cypress Inn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 8786 3540 8788 3559 8741 3501 8735
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 242DEG 35KT 3537 8780 3496 8778

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

cc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
346 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TNZ005-142115-
Stewart TN-
346 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN STEWART COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Wranglers Campground, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Land Between The Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3663 8764
      3653 8794 3664 8802 3668 8798
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 240DEG 12KT 3661 8793

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CC

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