Tornado Warning 6, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
  Nebraska this morning until 8 AM.

- A low pressure system will bring severe storms through this
  morning moving, with a second round of storms possible this
  afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures work their way into the region
  beginning Wednesday and are expected to last through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The warm front has lifted north and is draped across northeast
Nebraska causing storms to train across this area which is
leading to flash flooding concerns. Some areas could see
rainfall in excess of 2 inches in northeast Nebraska.

Elsewhere, we're seeing a bit of a lull as we wait for the dry
line to arrive. You can see these storms currently across
central Nebraska and north-central Kansas. There is a much
greater amount of shear out ahead of these storms which has
allowed a QLCS to develop along the dry line with a distinct
bowing feature suggesting a damaging wind threat as well as
tornado threat. We have just issued a tornado watch for some of
our southeastern Nebraska counties, which may need to be
expanded eastward later this morning depending on how well the
QLCS is able to hold together as it moves into southeast
Nebraska. Hi-resolution models show that it may weaken as it
approaches the Missouri river, then re-intensifying as it moves
into Iowa after sunrise. Shear profiles may be able to hold this
line together, though.

This line of storms should exit our southwestern Iowa counties
by mid-morning, leaving us right under the surface low for the
afternoon. We get hit by the cold front during the afternoon
which will bring another potential round of thunderstorms,
though they will be more elevated in nature, but could bring
more of a wind threat. We will need to watch closely for the
potential for a wake low during the afternoon and evening, where
we could see wind gusts of around 45 to 55 mph mix down to the
surface on the back side of the low. We'll have 50 to 60 kt
winds right off the surface at around 1 km with unidirectional
winds out of the northwest.

The low exits our area by Wednesday with more zonal flow setting
up across the central CONUS for midweek. With a broad trough in
place across the Northern Plains, temperatures will trend down
going toward the end of the week. A shortwave will bring another
chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday, but we don't anticipate anything severe with this
system as it's more of a deformation band on the northern
fringe of a low that stays to our south.

We stay mostly dry and cool through the weekend under this zonal
flow regime with the next big trough coming through Sunday
night into Monday. This won't bring us any precip, but it does
bring back warmer temperatures going into next week as ridging
builds up behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions are in place at KOMA and KLNK, while KOFK
continues to see shower and storm activity alongside MVFR
conditions. Expect increasing coverage of storms from west of
KLNK northward with the expectation that those storms move
east-northeast, with brief stints of MVFR to IFR conditions with
the strongest storms. After storms roll through (and generally
after 00z) expect winds out of the northwest to gust between 30
and 35 kts and periods of MVFR ceilings through the night with
some diminishing during the mid-to-late morning hours.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Petersen

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-162215-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
311 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the
area this morning. Damaging winds, hail as large as quarters, and
tornadoes will all be possible. Another line of storms will move
through this afternoon, with low potential for strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight and early Tuesday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1145 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 AM     Tornado          3 SW Platte Center      41.51N 97.53W
04/16/2024                   Platte             NE   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reported a tornado 3 mi SW
            of Platte Center.

&&

DMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1146 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     Tornado          2.5 W Platte Center     41.54N 97.54W
04/16/2024                   Platte             NE   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reporting that the tornado
            is roping out and touching back down.

&&

DMP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     Flash Flood      Winside                 42.18N 97.18W
04/16/2024                   Wayne              NE   Emergency Mngr

            Street flooding in Winside.

&&

Pearson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1223 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0216 AM     Flash Flood      7 ESE Wayne             42.21N 96.88W
04/16/2024                   Wayne              NE   Emergency Mngr

            Many secondary roads under water in eastern
            Wayne county, including one primary highway.

&&

Pearson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     Flash Flood      2 ENE Belden            42.42N 97.18W
04/16/2024                   Cedar              NE   Emergency Mngr

            Water reported over Highway 20 east of
            Belden.

&&

Pearson

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     Funnel Cloud     2 WSW Creston           41.70N 97.39W
04/16/2024                   Platte             NE   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous reports of a funnel cloud extending
            nearly to the ground but not quite touching
            down. Lasted several minutes.

&&

BLB