Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
630 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of southeast
  Nebraska this morning until 8 AM.

- A low pressure system will bring severe storms through this
  morning moving, with a second round of storms possible this
  afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures work their way into the region
  beginning Wednesday and are expected to last through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The warm front has lifted north and is draped across northeast
Nebraska causing storms to train across this area which is
leading to flash flooding concerns. Some areas could see
rainfall in excess of 2 inches in northeast Nebraska.

Elsewhere, we're seeing a bit of a lull as we wait for the dry
line to arrive. You can see these storms currently across
central Nebraska and north-central Kansas. There is a much
greater amount of shear out ahead of these storms which has
allowed a QLCS to develop along the dry line with a distinct
bowing feature suggesting a damaging wind threat as well as
tornado threat. We have just issued a tornado watch for some of
our southeastern Nebraska counties, which may need to be
expanded eastward later this morning depending on how well the
QLCS is able to hold together as it moves into southeast
Nebraska. Hi-resolution models show that it may weaken as it
approaches the Missouri river, then re-intensifying as it moves
into Iowa after sunrise. Shear profiles may be able to hold this
line together, though.

This line of storms should exit our southwestern Iowa counties
by mid-morning, leaving us right under the surface low for the
afternoon. We get hit by the cold front during the afternoon
which will bring another potential round of thunderstorms,
though they will be more elevated in nature, but could bring
more of a wind threat. We will need to watch closely for the
potential for a wake low during the afternoon and evening, where
we could see wind gusts of around 45 to 55 mph mix down to the
surface on the back side of the low. We'll have 50 to 60 kt
winds right off the surface at around 1 km with unidirectional
winds out of the northwest.

The low exits our area by Wednesday with more zonal flow setting
up across the central CONUS for midweek. With a broad trough in
place across the Northern Plains, temperatures will trend down
going toward the end of the week. A shortwave will bring another
chance for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into
Thursday, but we don't anticipate anything severe with this
system as it's more of a deformation band on the northern
fringe of a low that stays to our south.

We stay mostly dry and cool through the weekend under this zonal
flow regime with the next big trough coming through Sunday
night into Monday. This won't bring us any precip, but it does
bring back warmer temperatures going into next week as ridging
builds up behind it.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Storms are moving north-northeast across eastern Nebraska this
morning. The back edge will move out of KLNK by 13Z, and out of
KOFK and KOMA by 16Z, with VFR conditions expected through
midday. Winds will be shifting to southwesterly. During the
afternoon, we'll see another line of showers, possibly
thunderstorms, develop, with fairly high cigs around 8000 ft or
so. We'll see winds shift to westerly behind these showers or
thunderstorms.

This evening, models trend higher in probability of MVFR cigs
developing between 03-06Z as winds turn northwesterly and become
fairly strong, gusting to 30 to 35 kt. Cigs could sink as low as
1500 feet.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...McCoy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
311 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-162215-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
311 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move across the
area this morning. Damaging winds, hail as large as quarters, and
tornadoes will all be possible. Another line of storms will move
through this afternoon, with low potential for strong winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight and early Tuesday.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
642 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 SSW Dodge             41.62N 96.94W
04/16/2024  M60 MPH          Colfax             NE   Public

            Measured on personal weather station during
            the time between 545 and 600 AM. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

BLB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
645 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 AM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 S Howells             41.65N 97.01W
04/16/2024  M70 MPH          Colfax             NE   Public

            Personal weather station reported a 70 mph
            wind gust between 555 and 600 AM. Time
            estimated based on radar.

&&

BLB