Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe thunderstorms move east across the area
  through this evening. Small hail, isolated damaging wind gusts,
  & a tornado or two are all possible.

- Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" are expected with the
  storms tonight. Localized amounts closer to 2" could
  exacerbate ongoing flooding.

- Scattered showers & thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. Small
  hail & gusty winds are likely with the strongest storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Thunderstorms have developed on schedule across western
Minnesota, & will continue to move eastwards across Minnesota &
into Wisconsin through tonight. Instability continues to build
ahead of the front, with temperatures in the mid 80s & dew
points in the mid to upper 60s generating 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE. Instability may even increase a bit more towards this
evening as the thunderstorms approach eastern Minnesota &
western Wisconsin. Deep shear remains the limiting factor, with
the strongest forcing aloft & deep shear with this system
remaining behind the cod front. Deep shear values along the
front are only in the 20-30 kt range & oriented unidirectionally
along the front, which has caused any stronger cells to quickly
become disrupted & form a messy line of convection. As a result,
thunderstorms will likely remain sub-severe for the next hour
or two, but we may still see an increase in intensity as they
enter the more unstable environment across eastern Minnesota &
western Wisconsin. The main threat into this evening will
continue to be marginally severe hail & isolated damaging wind
gusts, but fairly high values of low-level CAPE & vorticity mean
a tornado or two can't be ruled out if any cells are able to
remain semi-discrete. Cell-interactions within the line may
also generate enough local low-level shear & helicity to
generate a QLCS-type tornado or pockets of stronger wind within
the line. Brief heavy rain is likely with the strongest
convection along the line, but its narrow dimensions &
progressive nature should limit rainfall amounts to 0.5-1"
across the area. Locally higher amounts are still expected
wherever isolated cells are able to form ahead of the main
line, & rainfall amounts could approach 2" across these areas.
These locally higher amounts could exacerbate flooding in
sensitive areas from the heavy rain over the weekend, but
otherwise we're not expected much in the way of flash flooding
from this event.

The thunderstorms will move clear of eastern Minnesota this
evening & western Wisconsin overnight with skies clearing out in
their wake. Very strong northwest flow & colder temperature
aloft move over the region tomorrow. While cooler & drier air
behind the front will limit surface instability, cyclonic flow &
the cooler temperatures aloft will create a classic "cold core"
setup for convection tomorrow afternoon. Widespread diurnally-
driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
tomorrow afternoon, primarily along and north of I-94. While the
instability will be low, deep shear of 30-40 kts will be plenty
sufficient for the small hail and gusty winds with the
strongest storms. A lone funnel cloud or two would not be a
surprise as well. These showers and thunderstorms will wane
after sunset, with 0.1-0.25" of rain expected with any storms.

The northwest flow regime continues through the weekend, with
isolated diurnally-driven showers possible during the
afternoon, but otherwise mainly dry conditions. Models depict a
shortwave moving through the region sometime during the
Saturday-Sunday timeframe which could result in some more
widespread light rain. Temperatures will be cooler as well
through the weekend with high temperatures generally in the
upper 60s to low 70s through Sunday. Looking ahead, broad but
fairly modest ridging aloft builds over the central CONUS,
which will lead to warmer temperatures and generally dry
conditions through the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

The line of showers and storms is pushing through early in the
period with brief periods of IFR/MVFR due to low visibility due
to rain. -SHRA is expected after the first couple hours as storm
activity diminishes as head towards 05z, at which point all
sites should be mostly dry. Cloud levels will increase behind
the departing showers with mainly high clouds after roughly
05-07z. Winds increase late in the period with gusts from
25-30kts possible around 270 after 18z.

KMSP...The wind shift has occurred at the airport over towards
230-260 with a continued shift towards 300 over the first 6
hours of the period. With only -TSRA for a couple of hours to
begin with and -SHRA afterwards, we are past the point of
needing an AWW for winds as the environment is turned over
already. Expect winds to increase after 16z tomorrow with gusts
approaching 30kts at 270. There could be a few isolated storms
tomorrow afternoon however coverage is not enough to produce
even a prob30 for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 15-20G30-35kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20-25kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
051915-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move across Minnesota &
Wisconsin this afternoon through this evening. The strongest
storms may produce damaging winds, hail, and heavy rain. A tornado
or two can not be ruled out as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Flooding along area rivers will increase through the week as
heavy rain over the last few days continues to work through
streams & tributaries into the main stem rivers.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
528 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNZ052-053-061-042315-
Anoka MN-Isanti MN-Chisago MN-
528 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO...
NORTHEASTERN ANOKA AND EASTERN ISANTI COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near North Branch to 5 miles northeast of East
Bethel to near Blaine. Movement was north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cambridge, Coon Rapids, Blaine, Andover, Ham Lake, East Bethel, North
Branch, St. Francis, Isanti, Rush City, Oak Grove, and Spring Lake.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 144 and 163.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4565 9289 4560 9289 4556 9287 4552 9288
      4538 9309 4519 9315 4513 9330 4551 9331
      4574 9308 4573 9285
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 189DEG 28KT 4556 9295 4541 9314 4517 9325

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
532 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNZ093-042300-
Freeborn MN-
532 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN FREEBORN COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Austin, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Freeborn County.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 169 and 173.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4368 9319 4385 9309 4384 9305 4362 9305
      4361 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 203DEG 24KT 4369 9308

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
535 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MNZ060>062-042300-
Anoka MN-Hennepin MN-Ramsey MN-
535 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN HENNEPIN...SOUTH
CENTRAL ANOKA AND NORTHWESTERN RAMSEY COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM CDT...

At 535 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Minneapolis to near Richfield. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Brooklyn Park, Coon Rapids, Blaine, Edina, St.
Louis Park, Richfield, Roseville, Brooklyn Center, Fridley, and
Shoreview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

&&

LAT...LON 4519 9315 4497 9314 4487 9334 4512 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 209DEG 20KT 4500 9327 4490 9331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JPC

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>