Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Twin Cities, MN

353 
WWUS53 KMPX 292103
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
403 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

MNC009-095-097-292130-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-240829T2130Z/
Mille Lacs MN-Benton MN-Morrison MN-
403 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR MILLE LACS...EASTERN BENTON AND EAST CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 403 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Vineland to near Onamia to near Foreston, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Mille Lacs Lake, Isle, Wahkon, and Bock around 410 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Mille
Lacs Kathio State Park, Glendorado, Father Hennepin State Park,
Pease, Oak Park, Rum River, Lake Mille Lacs, Rum River State Forest,
and Bayview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4625 9343 4598 9343 4598 9352 4556 9351
      4557 9386 4588 9384 4616 9393 4616 9381
      4624 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 245DEG 43KT 4622 9379 4600 9365 4570 9369 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Borghoff

821 
WWUS53 KMPX 292121 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
421 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

MNC009-095-097-292131-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0176.000000T0000Z-240829T2130Z/
Mille Lacs MN-Benton MN-Morrison MN-
421 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MILLE LACS...EASTERN BENTON
AND EAST CENTRAL MORRISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
central and east central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4625 9343 4598 9343 4598 9352 4556 9351
      4557 9386 4588 9384 4616 9393 4616 9381
      4624 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 246DEG 43KT 4630 9352 4608 9338 4578 9343 

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
317 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A line of severe storms is ongoing this afternoon and will
continue through this evening. The main threats are damaging winds
and heavy rainfall, but a couple of tornadoes and large hail are
also possible.

- Following this event, the weather will be pleasant through early
next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

Severe storms are ongoing across west central and south central
Minnesota ahead of a front. Storm mode is somewhat messy, but these
initial storms will pose the greatest risk for a tornado or two
before things are expected to grow upscale and transition to more of
a damaging wind threat. The question is when/how far east this
transition will happen. SPC mesoanalysis suggests the environment is
more favorable for tornadoes across east central Minnesota into
western Wisconsin, so if cells can remain discreet enough, the
tornado threat will persist. The 19z MPX special sounding shows
impressive CAPE of 4200 J/kg and 35kts of shear, which is
considerably more shear than we saw with Monday's round of severe
weather. While pwats are around 1.5" (down from over 2" Monday
evening), locally heavy rain is still possible with QPF totals
around 1 to 1.5". Storms are also about an hour or so ahead of our
initial thinking, so expecting storms to reach the metro closer to
4:30-5pm and Wisconsin by 6pm. Showers aren't expected to linger
long behind this initial line, so thinking any precip will come to
an end by midnight.

Following this system, tranquil weather will prevail through the end
of the period. Temperatures this weekend will be in the low 80s for
Saturday before falling into the low 70s for Sunday and Monday.
Temperatures slowly creep back into the 80s by midweek with dry
weather continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

The IFR/MVFR stratus deck has shifted NE, but will still impact the
western Wisconsin sites for the early afternoon. A pocket of
clearing is visible over much of central Minnesota, while convection
is becoming more widespread along the western MN border. As the
front sags southeast, a period of heavy rain and convective wind
gusts will likely impact each site. Behind the line, cigs will
quickly rise and winds will weaken and shift out of the NW.
There is a chance for low stratus and patchy fog for some locations
overnight, especially over western Wisconsin.

KMSP...Timing is still on track, so not too much change for the
ongoing TAF. Scattered storms could arrive ahead of the front
around 20z, with the main line moving through close to 21-23z.
Some models indicate that more isolated storms storms could fill
in behind the main line, so we have maintained the tempo
through 01z for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
349 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
300900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
349 AM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms is present this afternoon
and evening, with damaging wind and large hail the primary threats
with a few tornadoes possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Paynesville             45.38N 94.72W
08/29/2024  M59 MPH          Stearns            MN   Mesonet

0255 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E New Ulm             44.31N 94.45W
08/29/2024                   Nicollet           MN   Trained Spotter

            Multiple trees down and power outages in New
            Ulm.

0245 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SW Willmar            45.11N 95.08W
08/29/2024                   Kandiyohi          MN   Public

            Large branches down on the southwest side of
            Willmar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
313 PM CDT Thu Aug 29 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     New Ulm                 44.31N 94.46W
08/29/2024                   Brown              MN   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report of multiple downed trees
            blocking roads throughout New Ulm. Time
            estimated from radar.

&&

BED