River Flood Warning 29, NWS Twin Cities, MN

686 
WGUS83 KMPX 211601
FLSMPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...

  Cottonwood River Above Springfield affecting Brown County.

  Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County.

  Minnesota River at New Ulm affecting Nicollet, Blue Earth and 
  Brown Counties.

  Minnesota River at Savage affecting Scott, Hennepin, Carver and 
  Dakota Counties.

  Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Scott, Le Sueur and 
  Sibley Counties.

  Minnesota River at Morton affecting Renville and Redwood Counties.

  South Fork Crow River at Delano affecting Wright and Hennepin 
  Counties.

  South Fork Crow River below Mayer affecting Carver County.

  Crow River at Rockford affecting Wright and Hennepin Counties.

  Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County.

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Minnesota and Wisconsin...

  Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Nicollet and Blue Earth 
  Counties.

  Minnesota River at Montevideo affecting Chippewa, Lac qui Parle 
  and Yellow Medicine Counties.

  Mississippi River near Hastings L/D 2 (COE) affecting Pierce, 
  Washington and Dakota Counties.

  Mississippi River at St. Paul affecting Ramsey, Washington and 
  Dakota Counties.

  Cannon River at Northfield affecting Rice and Dakota Counties.

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Minnesota...

  West Branch Lac Qui Parle River at Dawson affecting Lac qui Parle 
  County.

.Heavy, widespread rainfall over the last several days has already 
caused substantial rises in area rivers. With more heavy rainfall 
expected through tonight, river levels are forecast to 
increase even more in the coming days. From tonight through Sunday, 
much of southern Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin can expect at 
least an inch of additional rainfall. A corridor of higher rainfall 
amounts (2 to 3 inches) is expected, particularly over southern 
Minnesota, and a few localized areas within this corridor could even 
see amounts over 4 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

&&

MNC073-211715-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FL.W.0029.240623T0824Z-240621T1601Z/
/DAWM5.3.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the West Branch Lac Qui Parle River at Dawson.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 33.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 34.6
    feet Monday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 4493 9610 4493 9607 4495 9606 4498 9605
      4499 9601 4500 9599 4501 9598 4502 9596
      4501 9594 4500 9594 4498 9597 4497 9599
      4495 9600 4494 9600 4492 9601 4491 9603
      4491 9608 4492 9610

$$

MNC015-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-240629T0300Z/
/SPFM5.2.ER.240618T1049Z.240623T1800Z.240628T0900Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL FRIDAY, JUNE 28...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Cottonwood River above Springfield.

* WHEN...Until Friday, June 28.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 23.8 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 30.0
    feet early Sunday afternoon. It will then fall below flood
    stage Friday, June 28.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    30.1 feet on 03/23/2011.

&&

LAT...LON 4421 9510 4425 9497 4425 9490 4421 9490
      4417 9510

$$

MNC013-103-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0023.240621T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNKM5.2.ER.240621T1800Z.240624T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at Mankato.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 26.6 feet, Flood waters begin to impact Highway 169 
  in North Mankato.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 21.2 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 28.0 feet
    early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    28.3 feet on 09/27/2010.

&&

LAT...LON 4418 9416 4420 9415 4417 9408 4417 9402
      4420 9403 4424 9403 4424 9402 4424 9397
      4417 9399 4414 9401 4414 9404 4415 9408

$$

MNC037-131-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0027.240621T2120Z-000000T0000Z/
/NRFM5.3.ER.240621T2120Z.240623T1800Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cannon River at Northfield.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 901.5 feet, Water reaches bottom of deck on 2nd 
  Street bridge.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 896.2 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 901.5
    feet early Sunday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 897.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    901.5 feet on 09/24/2010.

&&

LAT...LON 4443 9322 4450 9314 4453 9302 4450 9302
      4445 9312 4441 9318

$$

MNC037-163-WIC093-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0024.240622T2200Z-000000T0000Z/
/HSTM5.3.ER.240622T2200Z.240628T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River near Hastings L/D 2 (COE).

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 19.0 feet, Flood waters begin to affect eastern 
  portions of Hastings.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 13.5 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    tomorrow afternoon and continue rising to 19.8 feet Friday,
    June 28. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    19.5 feet on 03/31/2019.

&&

LAT...LON 4479 9288 4476 9285 4476 9281 4472 9273
      4465 9273 4468 9277 4470 9277 4472 9281
      4473 9284 4476 9291

$$

MNC037-123-163-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0025.240623T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPM5.3.ER.240623T0900Z.240628T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL 
FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Mississippi River at St. Paul.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Warner Road may become impassable due to 
  high water.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1010 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 11.8 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Sunday morning and continue rising to 20.4 feet Friday,
    June 28. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.2 feet on 03/31/2019.

&&

LAT...LON 4490 9319 4491 9316 4496 9309 4495 9303
      4492 9300 4482 9298 4479 9294 4479 9288
      4476 9291 4476 9293 4475 9294 4475 9299
      4477 9303 4482 9302 4489 9304 4493 9308
      4489 9314 4489 9318

$$

MNC023-073-173-220715-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FL.W.0026.240624T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/MVOM5.1.ER.240624T0600Z.240626T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at Montevideo.

* WHEN...From late Sunday night until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Low lying areas and some roads along the 
  river begin flooding, along with some basements of houses along 
  the river.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 13.5 feet.
  - The river is beginning to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    early Monday morning and continue rising to a crest of 14.3
    feet Tuesday evening.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.2 feet on 06/25/1991.

&&

LAT...LON 4503 9578 4498 9571 4494 9571 4493 9568
      4491 9563 4488 9567 4489 9568 4489 9572
      4492 9574 4493 9577 4494 9581 4498 9585

$$

MNC013-015-103-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0022.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NULM5.1.ER.240620T0126Z.240627T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at New Ulm.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 795.0 feet, Water begins to impact the access roads 
  in the floodplain.
  At 796.0 feet, Water impacts park land and boat launch access road 
  is closed.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 945 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 800.3 feet.
  - The river is continuing to gradually rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 802.5
    feet Thursday morning.
  - Flood stage is 800.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    802.4 feet on 05/18/2022.

&&

LAT...LON 4436 9460 4439 9459 4438 9451 4434 9445
      4430 9441 4428 9438 4426 9431 4422 9431
      4424 9435 4426 9441 4427 9443 4430 9446
      4433 9450 4435 9452

$$

MNC015-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NWUM5.3.ER.240618T2027Z.240624T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Cottonwood River at New Ulm.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18.0 feet, Flood waters reach the back of the 
  campground at Flandrau SP

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 11.6 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 18.0
    feet early Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    17.9 feet on 03/24/2019.

&&

LAT...LON 4431 9446 4427 9441 4428 9451 4426 9456
      4426 9461 4428 9463 4428 9465 4427 9468
      4425 9468 4423 9470 4425 9471 4425 9470
      4429 9469 4430 9465 4430 9462 4428 9459
      4428 9456 4430 9451 4430 9448

$$

MNC019-037-053-139-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/SAVM5.2.ER.000000T0000Z.240628T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at Savage.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 710.5 feet, Flood waters begin to back up Eagle Creek 
  and block the Highway 101 Frontage Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 703.8 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to 711.5 feet
    Friday, June 28. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
  - Flood stage is 702.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    711.6 feet on 03/29/2011.

&&

LAT...LON 4481 9358 4482 9352 4482 9343 4480 9337
      4479 9334 4480 9330 4482 9326 4486 9321
      4490 9319 4489 9318 4489 9314 4488 9316
      4483 9319 4477 9330 4477 9338 4479 9353
      4478 9356

$$

MNC053-171-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/RKFM5.3.ER.240619T0200Z.240625T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Crow River at Rockford.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Low lying areas and some roads along the 
  river begin to experience flooding.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 11.7 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 14.0
    feet Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    14.0 feet on 07/01/2002.

&&

LAT...LON 4510 9379 4516 9370 4522 9367 4525 9357
      4525 9352 4521 9353 4518 9360 4507 9371

$$

MNC079-139-143-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/HENM5.3.ER.240619T0005Z.240625T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and major flooding is forecast. 
  This approaches the flood of record.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at Henderson MN19.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 737.0 feet, Highway 99 east of St Peter is closed 
  (estimated levels for spring flooding)

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 733.3 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 739.5
    feet Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 732.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    739.5 feet on 06/23/1993.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9394 4448 9393 4449 9392 4456 9392
      4459 9391 4461 9388 4463 9385 4464 9379
      4462 9379 4461 9383 4459 9387 4455 9388
      4451 9388 4446 9388 4447 9390 4445 9391

$$

MNC053-171-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0013.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/DELM5.3.ER.240619T1430Z.240624T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...South Fork Crow River at Delano.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20.0 feet, Flooding occurs on 90th St SE and 
  approaches County Rd 17 by 20.5 ft.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 18.1 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 19.7
    feet early Monday afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 16.5 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    20.0 feet on 04/15/2001.

&&

LAT...LON 4504 9377 4502 9378 4499 9379 4498 9380
      4498 9385 4500 9381 4505 9380 4508 9377
      4509 9377 4508 9374 4508 9373

$$

MNC019-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MAYM5.3.ER.240617T1140Z.240623T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and major flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...South Fork Crow River below Mayer.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Road to the Watertown Waste Water 
  Treatment plant is flooded. Yale Avenue flooded between County 
  Road 30 and 78th Street; and 62nd Street west of County Road 33 to 
  Yancy Avenue is closed.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 930 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 15.3 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.3
    feet early Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    16.4 feet on 03/26/2011.

&&

LAT...LON 4498 9380 4494 9384 4489 9386 4483 9393
      4482 9396 4484 9399 4484 9401 4488 9401
      4486 9396 4494 9387 4498 9385

$$

MNC127-129-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0006.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MTNM5.2.ER.240524T2233Z.240625T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Minnesota River at Morton.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 24.0 feet, Fleischer Rd flooded in North Redwood; 
  storm sewers closed off and bypass pumping begins.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 22.4 feet.
  - The river is beginning to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 24.6
    feet early Tuesday morning.
  - Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    24.4 feet on 03/31/2009.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9518 4463 9515 4458 9507 4458 9505
      4457 9504 4457 9502 4455 9496 4453 9492
      4452 9487 4448 9487 4450 9491 4452 9496
      4454 9505 4455 9509 4457 9513

$$

MNC127-220715-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0028.240621T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/RWDM5.1.ER.240621T1800Z.240624T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1101 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Redwood River near Redwood Falls.

* WHEN...From this afternoon until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 8.5 feet, Swayback bridge in Redwood Falls overtopped.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1000 AM CDT Friday, the stage was 5.7 feet.
  - The river is continuing to rise.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    this afternoon and continue rising to a crest of 9.0 feet
    Monday morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    9.0 feet on 03/04/1983.

&&

LAT...LON 4457 9513 4455 9509 4452 9512 4450 9521
      4447 9527 4448 9546 4451 9546 4454 9536
      4455 9526 4454 9522 4456 9520 4456 9514

$$

Dunleavy

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the area starting
  Friday and lasting into Saturday. Multiple round of
  thunderstorms will lead to heavy rain and flooding concerns.
  If these thunderstorms track over the same location,
  significant flooding is possible.

- The latest trend shows a southern shift in rain, with the heaviest
  amounts along and north of I-90.

- Going into next week, the weather pattern will become more
  progressive, but not necessarily dry. Additional thunderstorm
  chances will continue at times next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Early afternoon radar and satellite imagery
shows scattered convection ongoing across the region, with the most
concentrated area of storms across eastern South Dakota and
southwest Minnesota. These storms were developing along a stationary
boundary, and over the next 48 hours, this boundary will be the
focus for multiple rounds of thunderstorms. By Saturday afternoon,
most locations across southern Minnesota and into west central
Wisconsin will see 2 to 4 inches, with pockets of 5+ inches likely.
As to how high that "plus" is will be whether or not multiple rounds
of storms track over the same location. The latest trends show the
rain shifting slightly to the south, with the highest axis along and
just north of I-94.

As for the meteorology, PWAT values are approaching record values,
with weak southwest flow aloft parallel to the surface boundary.
This will result in continued ascent along the boundary, with storms
tracking across the same location. Forecast soundings show
tropopause values up near 150mb indicating a tropical air mass.
While confidence is high that heavy rain and flooding will occur
across parts of the region, there is still uncertainty on where
exactly this will happen. The overall synoptic forcing is weak,
meaning that there isn't a strong wave or deepening low pressure
system driving the QPF. Instead it is a stationary boundary with
around 20 to 25 kts of H925 low level jet that continually develops
storms across the region. Some models show this convection further
north along the front, say east/west of the Twin Cities, while now
more models are starting to come in line with a more southern
solution closer to the I-90 corridor. For now, have targeted the
Flash Flood Watch to the south, but can't completely rule out a
northward expansion.

There is also a slight risk for severe weather on Friday, mainly
near I-90. Storms will be ongoing in the morning, and could
intensify as peak heating warms the southern side of the boundary.
At this point, wind is the primary threat, with a secondary risk of
hail and tornadoes. This slight risk area shifts eastward into
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin for Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Eventually the aforementioned boundary
will move east as a shortwave trough drives the low toward the Great
Lakes. A brief area of high pressure will settle in through early
next week, but another chance for thunderstorms returns Monday
night. This will be followed by a couple more dry days on Tuesday
and Wednesday, with the next system arriving sometime later next
week. At this point, locally heavy rain and/or severe weather could
be possible, but details will remain uncertain until we get through
the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Widespread showers across southern MN will impact primarily MKT
and RWF during the next few hours. They should then weaken,
before another batch arrives overnight. That round will have
some TS and periods of heavy rain. Conditions will deteriorate
to IFR overnight area wide.

KMSP...A few showers could lift north to MSP this evening,
otherwise two rounds are expected during the next 24 hours. The
first will arrive tonight around 09Z. TS and periods of heavy
rain are likely though mid morning. Then, the second round will
arrive late Friday afternoon or early evening. Conditions will
deteriorate to IFR levels tonight and remain there through the
rest of the period.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...TSRA/IFR likely early, bmcg MVFR in aftn. Wind SW 10-15 kts
becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10 kts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Main item to pass along is the latest river forecast that were
issued this morning include 48 hours of QPF. This means the
forecast hydrographs on the webpage capture most of they heavy
rain that is expected the next couple of days. As a result,
moderate or major flooding is expected at many of the sites
along the mainstem rivers.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
     for Anoka-Blue Earth-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-
     Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Wright.
     Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     Brown-Martin-Redwood-Renville-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
     for Dunn-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Borghoff
HYDROLOGY...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
212045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Chance for rain and thunderstorms overnight, but the heaviest rain
should hold off until Friday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A few severe storms, heavy rainfall, and flash flooding are
possible with multiple rounds of thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday.

River levels will continue rising through late week with some
locations reaching moderate or major flood stage. Additional rain
could worsen the flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is unlikely, but rainfall reports are
appreciated.

jrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
607 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     Tornado          1 E Dresser             45.36N 92.61W
06/18/2024                   Polk               WI   NWS Storm Survey

            This tornado damaged several homes and
            farms. One home east-southeast of St Croix
            Falls had much of its roof removed. Hundreds
            of trees were broken or uprooted. It was
            rated EF1 with a path length of 5.0 miles.
            Maximum winds were estimated to be 90 mph
            and its maximum width was 100 yards. It
            dissipated at 920 pm. The tornado was
            preceded by downburst damage between Osceola
            and Dresser.

&&

TDK