Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Melbourne, FL

575 
WWUS52 KMLB 150857
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
457 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

FLC069-150907-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-240515T0915Z/
Lake FL-
457 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EDT for east central
Florida.

LAT...LON 2896 8195 2896 8166 2879 8163 2879 8165
      2878 8166 2875 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0856Z 265DEG 31KT 2887 8172 

$$

Weitlich

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1110 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Another active weather day today, with activity moving in from the
Gulf earlier in the day with showers and storms developing along the
east coast sea breeze into the afternoon and early evening.
Scattered storms are ongoing across the Atlantic this evening,
mainly north of Sebastian Inlet. This activity is moving eastward
around 15 mph. Any lingering activity will dissipate or move out of
the local area over the next hour. The next frontal boundary is
shifting eastward across the Gulf States, and will reach the Florida
Panhandle tonight. This will bring an increase chance for showers
and storms once again overnight and into the early hours on
Wednesday, with activity reaching northern FL overnight, brining the
threat for strong to isolated severe storms across our northern
areas before sunrise. Highest rain and storm chances (PoP 30-60
percent) tonight will be from a Titusville to Lake Kissimmee
northward just before sunrise. Main storm threats will be gusty
winds of 40-50 mph with isolated up to 60 mph, hail up to 1 inch,
and heavy downpours. A tornado can not be ruled out, especially
along and north or the I-4 corridor. Temperatures will be warm and
muggy tonight, with overnight lows in the low 70s under partly to
mostly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 1108 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Another round of showers and storm are expected later tonight and
into Wednesday morning. Have VCSH starting 10Z for most TAF sites,
however having it start at 8Z at LEE. VCTS starting at 13/14Z.
MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger storms possible. Have included
TEMPOs for 3SM TSRA BKN030 from VRB northward with most sites
starting at 14Z, however LEE starts at 13Z and VRB starts at 16Z.
Wind gusts of 35 KT or greater will affect some terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected. Gusty winds will develop
Wednesday by mid morning, with southwest winds increasing to 10-15
KT with gusts up to 20-25 KT. Latest CAMs suggest convection will
clear out starting across the north around 21Z and progressing
southward to around 23Z. Winds will decrease once again after
sunset, with southwest winds decreasing to 5-10 KT overnight.

&&

.PREVIOUS MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Tonight/Wed...Will continue the marginal SCA across the offshore
waters tonight for S/SE winds up to 20 knots and a Caution for the
BRevard and Treasure coast nearshore waters. AN even earlier onset
of storms is forecast Wednesday, many strong and some severe
pushing offshore. Seas 3-4 FT, up to 5 FT offshore.

&&

. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

Current-Tonight...The strong storms across the north/central
sections earlier have long pushed well offshore and the debris
cloudiness has diminished allowing reheating. But do not see
anything imminent that would spark additional convection through
the evening there. While no severe weather was reported, there
were a number of classic tree cleaners, storms containing 45-55
mph wind gusts. Isolated sea breeze storms will develop near the
coast south of the Cape and around Lake Okeechobee through the
early evening. Will need to watch these storms for isolated severe
potential into early evening. The next convective cluster seen on
hi-res sat over the northern Gulf will reach north FL overnight
and could bring a strong/marginal severe threat to northern areas
before sunrise.

Wed...Scattered lightning storms will redevelop during the morning
ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Conditions will be
favorable for another round of strong to severe storms that could
begin even earlier than today. Convection should initiate along
the differential heating boundary between the debris canopy and
sfc heating and develop E/SE from there. Strong mid level flow and
cold temps aloft look to produce a better chance for severe storms
from mid morning through mid aftn. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the primary threats with a few tornadoes possible.
Think a watch box (probably a Tornado watch) is more likely
tomorrow than it was today for much of EC FL. Max temps should
hold in the mid to upper 80s Orlando northward but reach the mid
90s across the south prior to onset of convection.

Thursday-Friday...Mid-level ridging is forecast to set up over the
Florida peninsula late this week, with the lingering weak front
remaining draped across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County
area on Thursday. A plume of moisture will remain situated over this
area, with isolated to scattered showers possible. Model guidance
does not currently indicate large support for severe storm
development, especially with decreasing offshore flow aloft and
warming 500 mb temperatures, but some modest instability may be
enough to kick off a few isolated strong storms across southern
portions of the forecast area. North of the Treasure Coast and
Okeechobee area, conditions are forecast to remain mostly dry as a
dry air mass with PWATs less than an inch filters in, though a few
stray showers still cannot be ruled out across Brevard and Osceola
counties. Decided to further decrease PoPs with this forecast
package based on model guidance and increasing confidence that the
front will sit a bit further south than previously thought. Any
showers and storms that do develop will move offshore across the
local Atlantic waters and diminish into the overnight hours.

By Friday, the boundary is forecast to lift northward across east
central Florida as a weak warm front. Guidance continues to indicate
the potential for isolated showers and storms, due to the modest
moisture return associated with the front. As a result, kept PoPs
around 20 percent for now across east central Florida, but would not
be surprised if this continues to trend lower, especially if the
Euro trends more towards the GFS (the drier solution). Any activity
that develops is expected to diminish during the evening and
overnight hours.

Afternoon temperatures will continue to be 5 to 10 degrees above
normal across east central Florida through the end of the work week,
with highs climbing into the 90s both Thursday and Friday afternoon.
Heat indices in some areas may reach to right around 100. Overnight
temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...Moisture is forecast to continue increasing
across the peninsula this weekend as the mid-level ridge shifts
eastward out over the Atlantic. Troughing aloft accompanied by a
surface low and its attendant cold front will move towards the
Florida peninsula on Sunday, with  the front expected to move south
of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday. The GFS continues to
indicate a cleaner frontal passage compared to the Euro. Model
discrepancies continue into Tuesday, with the Euro indicating drier
conditions than the GFS. In general, stuck with the NBM as a good
middle ground between the models, with PoPs in the 30 to 50 percent
range this weekend into early next week. Isolated storms will also
be possible. The heat will persist across the peninsula, with
afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Saturday could be
particularly toasty, with some areas south of the Orlando metro
climbing into the upper 90s and heat indices reaching the 100 to 105
range. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  87  69  91 /  50  70  10   0
MCO  74  87  71  92 /  40  70  20  10
MLB  72  90  72  90 /  20  70  30  20
VRB  72  94  72  93 /  20  70  40  20
LEE  74  85  72  90 /  60  70  20   0
SFB  74  87  72  92 /  50  70  20  10
ORL  74  87  73  92 /  40  70  20  10
FPR  72  94  71  93 /  20  60  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

Watson/Sedlock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1122 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-151200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1122 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
There is a risk for a few strong to severe storms tonight and into
early Wednesday morning, especially along and north of the
Interstate 4 corridor as storms move into East Central
Florida from the northwest. The greatest potential for storms
tonight will be from Brevard to Osceola counties northward

Main storm hazards will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds of 40 to 50 mph with isolated up to 60 mph, large hail up to
1 inch, and a tornado or two are also possible in and near the
strongest storms that develop. There is a very low risk for a
waterspout along the coast and along and north of the Interstate 4
corridor.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Areas that see repeated storms could experience localized, minor
flooding of urban and poorly drained locations.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at all
Atlantic beaches tonight.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Offshore-moving lightning storms are possible tonight, especially
from Indian River to Osceola counties northward. A few erratic
wind gusts of 35 to 45 knots may occur in their vicinity. Be
prepared to return to port if you see dark storm clouds
approaching.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
Outside of storms, southeast winds will generally range 15 to 20
knots over the local Atlantic waters tonight, and intracoastal
waters will remain choppy. A Small Craft Advisory continues for
waters beyond 20 nautical miles, as winds are forecast to freshen
to 20 to 25 knots over the Gulf Stream tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered storms will remain in the forecast through at least
Wednesday as a cold front settles into Central Florida. Unstable
conditions and strong wind energy will continue to promote at
least a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms on Wednesday.
The risk for severe weather quickly decreases beginning Thursday.

A spell of unusually hot weather, for mid-May, will continue
through at least Saturday. Daytime highs will reach well into the
90s each afternoon. A low to moderate risk of heat-related illness
will persist for those sensitive to the heat.

Poor boating conditions will persist over the offshore waters on
Wednesday as winds slowly subside.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is expected again
on Wednesday.

Scattered storms will become more common again this weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should monitor the weather and self activate if needed.

Kelly/Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
307 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

FLZ041-044-150745-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
307 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 AM EDT...

At 306 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Salt Springs, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Lake George, Eldridge, Sellers Lake, and Astor Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM EDT for east central
Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8135 2925 8135 2908 8164
      2928 8164 2930 8165 2931 8167 2932 8168
      2938 8145 2940 8143 2940 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 254DEG 23KT 2931 8173

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Law