River Flood Warning 37, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
322 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Mainstem river flooding and high water levels will continue
   over the next few days.

-  Heat index values into the 90s are possible today.

-  Strong Thunderstorms look to return later on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Today and Tonight:

Atmospheric conditions will change over most of the forecast
area after 15Z today. CAPE and overall moisture will be meager
after this time per models, as surface wind shifts more
westerly. Therefore, this afternoon and evening should be
generally dry. Temperatures will quickly rise by this afternoon
with many locations approaching the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Southern Wisconsin actually looks to be in a pinch this evening
and tonight between showers and thunderstorms to our south over
northern Illinois and another shortwave approaching from our
west. This wave should be monitored tonight, as cloud cover
increases. There also looks to be a weak surface boundary
setting up across the forecast area later tonight, which may
generate a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm, mostly near
Lake Michigan in far southeast Wisconsin.

KPL

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday through Monday:

Shortwave moves east Wednesday morning and early afternoon, as
drier air begins to advect into Wisconsin. Heights aloft then push
any energy well north of the forecast area. All indications are
that shortwave ridging will result in dry weather later Wednesday
through Thursday. In fact, it should be dry into early Friday
across southern Wisconsin.

Flow aloft then becomes more southwesterly on Friday with
increasing moisture aided by yet another low level jet for Friday
afternoon and evening. There also looks to be lift in the mid and
upper levels with another trough approaching Wisconsin from the
west. The result should be more thunderstorms, some could be
strong. It will also be quite warm on Friday.

There should also be a surface cold front moving through sometime
Friday night into early Saturday. Thinking the instability will
stick around for Saturday to keep some shower and thunderstorm
chances. Will have to keep an eye out for another shortwave aloft
during the day Saturday, possibly supporting steeper lapse rates
(and hence instability). Temperatures should be a little cooler
on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday in the extended then look dry and pleasant
across southern Wisconsin. No weather threats to consider at this
time, but will take a closer look as we approach the upcoming
weekend.

KPL

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Surface winds will decrease later this morning and afternoon.
Any remaining storms will dissipate or exit the region, leaving
VFR conditions for this afternoon and evening. There will
remain some cloud cover tonight into early Wednesday, but a
brief drying trend will occur across southern Wisconsin routes.

KPL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Storms will move off the northern parts of Lake Michigan this
morning. There will be some clearing with less wind by this
afternoon. Winds will then be variable over most of Lake
Michigan through Wednesday. Isolated showers and storms remain
possible early Wednesday before a drying trend begins. Next day
for increasing waves and small craft concerns will be on Friday.

We will also allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 12Z.

KPL

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Tuesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260845-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move over Lake
Michigan early this morning. Strong winds of 60 MPH or greater
will be the greatest threat, along with locally heavy rain.

Most of this thunderstorm activity will end after 9 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Runoff from recent heavy rains will cause many rivers and streams
to continue rise through the week, with flooding possible.

There are additional chances for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday.

Warm temperatures and high dewpoints will cause heat index values
to rise into the lower to middle 90s today.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed until 9 am this morning. This
especially includes Fond du Lac, Ozaukee, and Sheyboygan
Counties. Any reports of damaging winds, excessive rainfall or
flooding will be appreciated.

LMZ643>646-260845-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will impact the
nearshore waters until 10 am this morning. These storms will
contain strong wind gusts and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are additional chances for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-260845-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
344 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to impact the lake
this morning, bringing very gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Storms
will move east by this afternoon with decreasing surface winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There are additional chances for thunderstorms Friday into
Saturday. Gusty winds are likely over the entire lake on Friday.

KPL

www.weather.gov/mkx

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