Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
221 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

As the influence of Debby becomes a non-factor in the local weather
scenario, conditions across SoFlo will improve today as the breezy
winds subside and the air mass becomes drier. But it won't be a
true return to a normal weather pattern since wind direction will remain
generally from the west and southwest through the weekend instead of
the typical ESE flow associated with the Atlantic high.

The main adjustment to the forecast philosophy will be to incorporate
latest trend in ensembles and global model solutions of having less
POPs and storm coverage during the next several days. Expect mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms today with POPs in the 30-40 percent
over the eastern half of SoFlo and in the 50-60 percent range for interior
and west coast areas, Even lower POPs on Thursday with 30-40 percent
over much of SoFlo.  Best chances will happen during the afternoon hours
with daytime heating.

A few strong or even an isolated severe storm can't  be ruled out. Outflow
boundaries from early storms could provide the extra lift needed for
deeper/taller cells to develop.

The combination of lingering low level moisture and lowering
rain activity will help in pushing afternoon temps into the mid
90s across the Atlantic metro areas today, along with heat
index values in the 105-106 range, with locations at higher values
possible. Elsewhere, temps in the low 90s will be the norm. A Heat
advisory will be in effect today, mainly for Miami-Dade, Broward,
Palm Beach, and Collier counties. Similar temps are expected
again on Thursday, maybe a couple of degrees cooler.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

The weekend will feature a weak upper trough filling/weakening as
broad/expansive ridging builds aloft. This will maintain a weak
steering flow regime through the weekend, with mean winds within the
boundary layer fluctuating from south to east-southeast. As a
result, expect a typical sea-breeze driven convective regime, with
afternoon thunderstorm coverage typically reaching maximum coverage
around peak diurnal heating. The weak steering flow regime and high
precipitable water indices (around 2.0 inches) should allow for
heavy rainfall which may become a nuisance and cause street flooding
in affected locations.

Beyond the weekend into early next week, expansive upper ridging
becomes established over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the
Bahamas, allowing for the persistent weak flow pattern to continue.
An east to southeasterly SFC-850 mb wind regime can be expected
through much of next week as well, which will favor early morning
showers/storms along the east coast, and greatest convective coverage
over the interior and southwest Florida. There also exists the
potential for Saharan dust plumes to advect over the western
Atlantic waters, though a bit of uncertainty remains here regarding
whether or not this will directly impact South Florida.

The extended forecast period will feature hot and humid conditions,
with afternoon highs expected to range from the low to mid 90s. Heat
indices may span from 105 to 110, possibly prompting heat advisories
through portions of this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

Breezy southwest flow continues this afternoon and evening with
SHRA/TSRA developing across portions of the area. Coverage is
expected to be more limited today and tomorrow with not enough
confidence for TEMPOs. Southwest flow continues tomorrow as well
although expected to be a bit less gusty than today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

Marine conditions continue to gradually improve with speeds
likely remaining in the 10-15 mph range, although occasional
higher gusts are possible. Therefore, is still prudent to mention
that conditions could remain near cautionary levels through the
rest of the forecast period. Also, brief periods of rough seas

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

A low risk will continues along the Atlantic today , while a high
risk of rip currents remaining in place along the Gulf coast
until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  94 /  20  40  10  40
West Kendall     78  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  95 /  20  40  10  40
Homestead        79  92  79  92 /  20  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  93  79  92 /  20  40  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  80  93 /  20  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  96  80  97 /  20  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  94 /  20  50  10  50
Boca Raton       79  94  79  94 /  20  50  10  40
Naples           81  91  80  91 /  40  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto

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