Special Weather Statement, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
221 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

As the influence of Debby becomes a non-factor in the local weather
scenario, conditions across SoFlo will improve today as the breezy
winds subside and the air mass becomes drier. But it won't be a
true return to a normal weather pattern since wind direction will remain
generally from the west and southwest through the weekend instead of
the typical ESE flow associated with the Atlantic high.

The main adjustment to the forecast philosophy will be to incorporate
latest trend in ensembles and global model solutions of having less
POPs and storm coverage during the next several days. Expect mainly
scattered showers and thunderstorms today with POPs in the 30-40 percent
over the eastern half of SoFlo and in the 50-60 percent range for interior
and west coast areas, Even lower POPs on Thursday with 30-40 percent
over much of SoFlo.  Best chances will happen during the afternoon hours
with daytime heating.

A few strong or even an isolated severe storm can't  be ruled out. Outflow
boundaries from early storms could provide the extra lift needed for
deeper/taller cells to develop.

The combination of lingering low level moisture and lowering
rain activity will help in pushing afternoon temps into the mid
90s across the Atlantic metro areas today, along with heat
index values in the 105-106 range, with locations at higher values
possible. Elsewhere, temps in the low 90s will be the norm. A Heat
advisory will be in effect today, mainly for Miami-Dade, Broward,
Palm Beach, and Collier counties. Similar temps are expected
again on Thursday, maybe a couple of degrees cooler.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

The weekend will feature a weak upper trough filling/weakening as
broad/expansive ridging builds aloft. This will maintain a weak
steering flow regime through the weekend, with mean winds within the
boundary layer fluctuating from south to east-southeast. As a
result, expect a typical sea-breeze driven convective regime, with
afternoon thunderstorm coverage typically reaching maximum coverage
around peak diurnal heating. The weak steering flow regime and high
precipitable water indices (around 2.0 inches) should allow for
heavy rainfall which may become a nuisance and cause street flooding
in affected locations.

Beyond the weekend into early next week, expansive upper ridging
becomes established over the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the
Bahamas, allowing for the persistent weak flow pattern to continue.
An east to southeasterly SFC-850 mb wind regime can be expected
through much of next week as well, which will favor early morning
showers/storms along the east coast, and greatest convective coverage
over the interior and southwest Florida. There also exists the
potential for Saharan dust plumes to advect over the western
Atlantic waters, though a bit of uncertainty remains here regarding
whether or not this will directly impact South Florida.

The extended forecast period will feature hot and humid conditions,
with afternoon highs expected to range from the low to mid 90s. Heat
indices may span from 105 to 110, possibly prompting heat advisories
through portions of this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

Breezy southwest flow continues this afternoon and evening with
SHRA/TSRA developing across portions of the area. Coverage is
expected to be more limited today and tomorrow with not enough
confidence for TEMPOs. Southwest flow continues tomorrow as well
although expected to be a bit less gusty than today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

Marine conditions continue to gradually improve with speeds
likely remaining in the 10-15 mph range, although occasional
higher gusts are possible. Therefore, is still prudent to mention
that conditions could remain near cautionary levels through the
rest of the forecast period. Also, brief periods of rough seas

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

A low risk will continues along the Atlantic today , while a high
risk of rip currents remaining in place along the Gulf coast
until this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  93  80  94 /  20  40  10  40
West Kendall     78  93  77  94 /  20  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        80  94  79  95 /  20  40  10  40
Homestead        79  92  79  92 /  20  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  80  93  79  92 /  20  40  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  80  93  80  93 /  20  40  10  40
Pembroke Pines   80  96  80  97 /  20  40  10  40
West Palm Beach  79  94  79  94 /  20  50  10  50
Boca Raton       79  94  79  94 /  20  50  10  40
Naples           81  91  80  91 /  40  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067>075-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ069.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...Rizzuto

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
331 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

FLZ066-067-072030-
Hendry FL-Inland Palm Beach County FL-
331 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hendry
and western Palm Beach Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 331 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
strong thunderstorms capable of producing a landspout along a line
extending from near Lake Harbor to 6 miles southeast of Montura.
Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade, Clewiston, Pahokee, South Bay, Canal Point, Lake Harbor,
Okeelanta, Belle Glade Camp, Fremd Village-Padgett Island, Holey Land
Wildlife Refuge, and Harlem.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Funnel clouds occasionally touch down and produce tornadoes or
waterspouts. Move indoors and stay away from windows.

Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until these storms pass. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2691 8042 2642 8069 2653 8110 2676 8095
      2674 8086 2670 8082 2669 8074 2670 8072
      2676 8075 2678 8073 2674 8071 2676 8069
      2681 8070 2686 8064
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 253DEG 11KT 2672 8087 2659 8100

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

RAG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

FLZ067-072030-
Inland Palm Beach County FL-
403 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Palm Beach
County through 430 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, National Weather Service meteorologists were tracking
a strong thunderstorm over Belle Glade, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Belle Glade, Pahokee, South Bay, Canal Point, Belle Glade Camp, Lion
Country Safari Park, Fremd Village-Padgett Island, and Loxahatchee
NWR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons participating in outdoor activities should seek sturdy
shelter until this storm passes. Open shelters found in parks,
beaches, or golf courses offer no protection from the dangers of
lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2653 8035 2662 8076 2669 8074 2670 8072
      2673 8073 2676 8073 2677 8072 2675 8072
      2674 8071 2676 8069 2679 8070 2681 8070
      2684 8065 2687 8063 2690 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 276DEG 21KT 2670 8064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

RAG

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