Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
117 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

 - Hot and humid conditions continue today and throughout the
   weekend, with peak heat indices in the 105 to 112 range.

 - Scattered thunderstorms each afternoon through the weekend,
   with some strong storms possible.

South Florida will remain in a fairly stagnant pattern through
Saturday under the base of a mid-level trough that stretches up
across the Eastern US. South-southwest flow in the low levels
will continue to pump a hot and humid airmass into the region,
with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, and heat indices in
the 105-112 range for most areas. This has prompted Heat
Advisories along the East Coast metro counties for today.
Saturday has the potential to be a few degrees warmer than today,
so another round of Heat Advisories or even Excessive Heat
Warnings may be required across nearly all of South Florida. The
only potential relief for residents would be when scattered
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms temporarily move
through and cool things down. With relatively cool mid-level temps
around -8C and MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg each afternoon, a few
strong to even storms cannot be ruled out, especially along the
sea breeze. Most storms will be garden-variety, capable of
producing gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy
downpours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

To open the weekend, the mid-level trough will begin to depart
the area with its attendant surface boundary approaching northern
Florida before stalling out. This will keep a south-southwesterly
wind regime in place across the area. Sea breezes will be the
primary driver for ascent and thunderstorm development through the
weekend, although with enhanced southerly flow, temperatures
aloft will begin to warm to the -4 to -6 degree range, so this
should limit stronger storm potential. PoPs will be around 50-60%
for most locations this weekend and convection should trend more
towards the east coast compared to the west coast under light
west-southwest flow. High temperatures could reach the mid to
upper 90s each day, with areas in the interior potentially topping
out in the triple digits. Heat indices will climb into the mid
100s for most areas under southwest flow, and thus there is an
increasing potential for Heat Advisories or even an Excessive Heat
Warning issuance for portions of the area.

For early to the middle of next week, guidance starts to vary more
drastically. Overall, most guidance is hinting at the potential
for a disturbance to form in the Caribbean or GOM which would have
the potential to impact the region at some point next week. Local
weather across South Florida will depend heavily on the exact
track and development of this disturbance. Overall, there is no
real consensus yet regarding potential impacts for the area. For
now, keeping POPs capped at 70% for each afternoon through the
middle of next week, although these may need to be nudged upward
(or even downward) as guidance comes into better agreement
regarding the disturbance. At the very least, a disturbance in the
general vicinity (anywhere from the western Gulf waters near the
TX/LA border or over the Atlantic waters) would only reinforce the
southerly flow in place, so rain chances will likely remain
higher next week regardless as enhanced moisture filters in across
the area from the south. Stay tuned for more through the week
regarding any potentially impactful weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms may bring brief periods of MVFR/IFR
conditions through this evening, especially for the Atlantic
sites. TEMPOs may be required. WSW winds at the Atlantic sites
will veer to the S/SE around 10kt after the sea breeze moves
inland this afternoon, then light and variable later in the
evening. APF will keep a westerly flow through the afternoon.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1221 PM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Generally benign boating conditions should prevail across the
coastal waters through the weekend and likely into early next
week, with winds in the 5-10kt range. Only exception will be in
the vicinity of any thunderstorm that forms, which will bring
brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. Seas are expected at
2 feet or less across all local waters for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  79  91 /  20  60  30  60
West Kendall     76  93  75  93 /  20  50  30  60
Opa-Locka        78  93  78  93 /  20  60  30  60
Homestead        76  91  78  91 /  20  50  30  60
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  78  91 /  20  50  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  78  92  78  92 /  20  50  30  50
Pembroke Pines   79  94  79  95 /  20  60  30  50
West Palm Beach  76  94  76  93 /  20  50  20  50
Boca Raton       77  93  78  93 /  20  50  30  50
Naples           79  92  80  93 /  20  30  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ067-068-071>074-
     168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...Culver

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
081415-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach County-Metro Palm Beach County-
Coastal Collier County-Inland Collier County-Inland Broward County-
Metro Broward County-Inland Miami-Dade County-
Metropolitan Miami Dade-Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach County-
Coastal Broward County-Coastal Miami Dade County-Far South Miami-
Dade County-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
1009 AM EDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...Peak Heat Indices In The Triple Digits Across South Florida...
...Scattered Thunderstorms Possible...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Florida, southern Florida, southwest Florida and Gulf of
Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Excessive Heat: Peak indices of 104 to 108 degrees are likely
for most of South Florida today while a few areas could approach
110 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect today from 10AM through
6PM for the entire East Coast metro (Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-
Dade Counties).

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the afternoon
hours into the early evening. Storms may contain periods of heavy
rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible each day,
with the greatest coverage expected each afternoon over the
interior.

Temperatures will remain hot through the weekend and into next week
with peak heat indices ranging from 105 to 112 each day across South
Florida. Additional heat advisories or possibly excessive heat
warnings may be necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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