Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
512 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Severe storms will remain possible through midday Friday with
areas in north Mississippi at the greatest risk of experiencing
damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

Bitter cold temperatures will move into the Mid-South Saturday
night ahead of a winter weather system. Snow will likely begin
late Sunday and last through midday Monday with accumulations
likely areawide. Subzero wind chills will remain through midweek
before temperatures begin slightly warming on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

An active weather period will begin today as a strong low pressure
system impacts the Mid-South. Bombogenesis will occur as this
system pushes across the region, with several solutions depicting
a 10-15 mb drop over a 6 hour period. Strong surface winds are
already being realized across the region with surface observations
depicting wind gusts in excess of 40 mph in several locations.
Strong winds will persist through midnight tonight with wind
gusts up to 50 mph possible. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
the entire Mid-South through midnight tonight.

Outside of gradient winds, severe weather is also expected through
midday today. 330 AM radar imagery depicts showers and elevated
thunderstorms confined to northeast Arkansas and northwest
Tennessee. Upscale growth of these storms is not expected as they
push into an environment comprised of lack luster CAPE and lapse
rates. However, an additional line of storms currently stretches
from northeastern Texas to Central Arkansas. As these storms
propagate east, the environment over the Mid-South will become
slightly more conducive for severe storm development as mid level
lapse rates increase to around 7.5 C/km and MLCAPE values approach
400 J/kg in north Mississippi. An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) is
in place across much of north Mississippi with areas stretching
from Tallahatchie to Monroe counties at the greatest risk of
damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado.

By late Saturday, an Arctic front will impact the Mid-South,
causing temperatures to rapidly decrease to the teens by Sunday
morning. A stout 700 mb moisture plume will overspread much of the
Mid-South at this time. In addition, a 140 kt 250 mb jet streak
will develop overhead. These, combined with elevated snow liquid
ratios and a saturated dendritic growth zone, will result in the
development of snow showers through midday Monday. Snow totals at
this time remain uncertain. However, both GEFS and ECMWF Ensembles
place a 50-70% chance of greater than 1" of accumulating snow
area wide. For northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel, the
probability for greater than 3" of snow is between 10-30%.
Additional details regarding snow totals will come subsequent
forecast updates.

Bitter cold temperatures will remain in place through midweek as
morning lows remain in the single digits to low teens. Subzero
wind chill values will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday mornings
with areas north of I-40 experiencing the coldest conditions. A
Wind Chill Advisory will likely be needed at this time.

Long range models depict an additional low pressure system
impacting the Mid-South on Thursday night. Additional wintry
precipitation will be possible at this time. However, it remains
too early to iron out the details.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

Generally followed HRRR on TSRA timing, as the model has shown
minimal run-to-run variation. May see a brief LLWS period at MEM,
MKL and TUP during the passage of an occluded front. That LLWS
should be short-lived and is handled with prevailing TS.

Post-frontal 925mb winds only around 35-40KT this afternoon.
Peak gust potential should prevail below that.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ARZ009-018-026>028-
     035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for TNZ001>004-019>022-
     048>055-088>092.

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     Hail             Weiner                  35.62N 90.90W
01/12/2024  M1.00 inch       Poinsett           AR   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Quarter-sized hail.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
557 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

ARZ026-027-035-121230-
Poinsett AR-Craighead AR-Cross AR-
557 AM CST Fri Jan 12 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL CRAIGHEAD...
POINSETT AND NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM CST...

At 556 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Waldenburg, or 8 miles southwest of Harrisburg, moving northeast at
60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jonesboro, Trumann, Marked Tree, Harrisburg, Bay, Weiner, Waldenburg,
Greenfield, Fisher, Payneway, Hergett, Wiley Crossing, Apt, Tulot,
Supply, Weona Junction, Weona, Hatchie Coon, Gum Point, and Stewart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 AM CST for eastern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 9092 3557 9101 3563 9097 3586 9056
      3556 9032
TIME...MOT...LOC 1156Z 241DEG 51KT 3551 9086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Schlessiger