Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
Issued by National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
703 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The dry line has pushed well into New Mexico and far west Texas
this afternoon as result of a low level westward push of moisture.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening for mainly the Davis mountains and potentially for plains
areas well north of Midland. Convective activity along the east
slopes of the Sacramento mountains and Guadalupe mountains will
shift eastward the next several hours to generate a the isolated
storm coverage. The remainder of the region remains dry, with
strong capping in place with little to no storm development
expected. Temperatures will remain cooler.

Widespread thunderstorm activity will return on Saturday as an
upper level trough passing through the region helps enhance
thunderstorm development along the dryline straddling region.
There will be a threat of large hail, winds, and a few tornados
with these storms in the afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday will see diminished chances for thunderstorms as drier and
more stable air flow pattern begins to take hold. The dryline will
retreat to the east toward San Angelo and Abilene, leaving much
of the area from Midland westward dry with southwest winds and
mostly clear skies. The drying trend will continue on Monday as
the dryline shifts further to the east with a dry breezy west flow
occurring over much of west Texas. Temperatures on both Sunday
and Monday will be near seasonal values with lower to mid 90s for
afternoon readings.

For Tuesday through Thursday dry conditions will continue across
west Texas, but with much warmer temperatures. A strong ridge of
high pressure will build over west Texas and New Mexico, setting
up a stable subsidence pattern that will cause afternoon
temperatures to rise well into the 100s for much of the Permian
Basin and Trans Pecos area. Heat stress concerns will be a
potential impact for those days.

The high will shift more to the east next Friday, allowing a
stronger southerly flow that will bring moisture back into the
region for a chance of Thunderstorms. Temperatures will also
moderate and decline several degrees back closer to seasonal
norms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Southeast flow overnight 10 to 15 knots with skies mostly clear.
Chance of IFR CIGs at KFST and Davis Mountains Saturday morning,
with FEW-SCT020 in that area. Otherwise, conditions should remain
VFR through Saturday afternoon. Southeast flow increases tomorrow
with gusts to 30 knots likely mid-afternoon. Scattered TSRA
forming over Guadalupe/Apache ranges, moving east through the
evening hours. Will likely need additional mention of TS between
21-03Z tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Elevated fire danger west of the dryline on this afternoon,
including most of the Davis Mountains, Guadalupe Range, and Eddy
County Plains. Min RH 5-12% and east winds 10 to 15 mph. ERCs
remain quite high above the 90th percentile in those areas.

Lightning starts will be possible on Saturday as the dryline
shifts further west and thunderstorm chances across much of west
Texas and southeast New Mexico will pose a risk for the elevated
terrain and forested areas. Conditions dry out quickly again
early next week with stronger west flow and warmer temperatures
due to the strengthening of high pressure aloft. Critical
conditions possible Monday/Tuesday if forecasted winds remain
breezy.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               67  90  67  92 /  10  30  40  20
Carlsbad                 67  95  65 101 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                   72  95  72  96 /  10  30  30  10
Fort Stockton            70  96  69  99 /  10  40  30  20
Guadalupe Pass           64  88  65  92 /  10  30  10  10
Hobbs                    63  91  64  95 /  20  30  30  10
Marfa                    57  95  58  96 /  10  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     67  91  68  93 /  10  30  30  10
Odessa                   69  92  69  93 /  10  30  30  10
Wink                     70  97  70 101 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

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