Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

282 
WGUS74 KMAF 022104
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
404 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

TXC135-329-022230-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-240902T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ector TX-Midland TX-
404 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR ECTOR AND NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTIES...

At 404 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 5 inches of rain have 
fallen just northwest of Odessa. Flash flooding is ongoing.  
Although rain rates have diminished, any extra rainfall will only 
exacerbate flooding already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Midland, Odessa, Goldsmith, West Odessa, Midland International Air 
  and Space Port, Odessa Schlemeyer Field, Warfield, Penwell, 
  Midland Airpark, Skywest Airport, Cotton Flat and Notrees.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Mustang Draw, Johnson Draw, Monahans Draw and Midland Draw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3172 10229 3172 10279 3209 10280 3209 10272
      3209 10271 3209 10260 3209 10241 3209 10239
      3209 10238 3209 10234 3209 10232 3209 10229
      3209 10222 3209 10221 3209 10203 3209 10190
      3186 10190 3183 10229

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

James DeBerry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
216 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Rain continues to be the main feature for the forecast with light
to moderate rain falling nearly areawide this afternoon. Today's
rainfall amounts range from under an inch to over 4 inches with
spots like Andrews(over 4 inches) and Fluvanna (over 6 inches)
seeing the most so far. Marginal instability (between 500-100 J/kg
MUCAPE), divergence aloft, and the front that moved through this
morning will act in concert with the 1.25-1.5" PWATs to keep rain
chances elevated through tonight. Additional rainfall up to an
inch or more can be expected for many spots through tonight and
into tomorrow with locally higher amounts possible that end up
under training showers or under embedded thunderstorms. Lightning,
heavy rain, and gusty winds will be the main concerns with any
thunderstorms. Small hail may be possible, but current environment
(shallow mid-level lapse rates) don't favorably support hail
growth. Flooding of low lying areas/roads will continue to be
likely.

Drier air begins to move into the area during the day tomorrow
and the best rain chances are shifted to the south and southeast
where better moisture and lift will be present. All locations will
still have a chance of at least a trace during the day tomorrow
before chances really taper off from north to south. Temperatures
drop into the 60s for most tonight with the higher elevations
dipping into upper 50s. Rain and clouds will keep temperatures
well below normal for Tuesday with most areas reaching into the
70s before falling back into the 60s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

A drier pattern will set in in the wake of the mid/upper trough.
Building geopotential heights over the western CONUS will extend
east into TX and allow for large scale subsidence to set in. This
will reduce rain chances over the area from Wednesday into next
week. Ensembles have backed off on showing development of
troughing over the northern Great Plains and the extended forecast
shows high and low temperatures near to slightly above normal for
early September. Therefore, a comparatively uneventful weather
situation is in store for the end of this week into next week. We
can still expect showers and storms resulting from heating of
elevated terrain over the usual spots of the Davis Mountains into
the Lower Trans Pecos. However, large scale subsidence will
maintain low rain chances for the rest of the area.

Highs remain below average this week into this weekend, rising
from mostly the 70s and 80s on Wednesday into the 80s and above by
Thursday and Friday for most regions, with highs rising into the
90s appearing over larger portions of the Rio Grande basins,
eastern Permian Basin, and up the Pecos River once again next week
as the warming and drying trend continues. NBM has trended lower
by a few degrees for highs this week, but slightly higher with
highs next week. By Monday next week, highs are forecast to be
near to slightly above normal, with 80s, 90s for northeastern
Permian Basin, along the Pecos River, in the basins of western
Culberson County and near the Rio Grande, with 80s in higher
elevations and near triple digit heat along the Rio Grande. Lows
will be near normal with 60s, 50s over higher elevations and
northern Lea County, and lows only falling into the 70s and above
over Terrell County into the Big Bend. Light winds and easterly
flow will keep dew point temperatures in the 50s and 60s into this
weekend before dew point temperatures begin to fall into the 50s,
40s over westernmost regions both during the day and night as
drier air moves in from the north and west. Despite the relatively
meager warm up, lowering dew point temperatures next week, and
beginning of meteorological fall on September 1, we still cannot
say we have seen the last of summer heat this year.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Numerous showers continue to move through the area and will be a
fixture into tonight. CIG/VIS will bounce from MVFR/IFR at times
before settling more towards IFR this evening. TS will be possible,
but not currently included due to low confidence on timing and
location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               65  73  65  80 /  90  80  30  30
Carlsbad                 61  75  61  80 /  40  30  10  20
Dryden                   68  79  68  81 /  70  60  60  50
Fort Stockton            64  73  64  79 /  80  70  40  50
Guadalupe Pass           57  69  58  76 /  50  30  10  20
Hobbs                    60  73  60  80 /  50  40  10  20
Marfa                    60  73  59  77 /  60  40  20  50
Midland Intl Airport     64  73  65  79 /  80  70  30  30
Odessa                   65  73  66  79 /  80  60  30  30
Wink                     65  76  65  82 /  70  60  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...93

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
219 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-031930-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
219 PM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024 /119 PM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Flash flooding is possible in areas of heavier showers and storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland