Flash Flood Warning 50, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
624 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Current radar shows showers continue across the area this morning.
Despite a few moderate cells with enhanced reflectivities, no
lightning is currently being observed and believe this trend will
continue today with much more rain than lightning occurring. However
this is not an indication that there will be no heavy rainfall
today, rather there is a good chance of spotty heavy rainfall due to
a very saturated airmass and slow storm movement. A very dry summer
though has left soils able to withstand this heavy rain and
therefore do not anticipate a widespread flash flood threat today.
The flash flood threat will be confined mainly to urban areas and
low water crossings which will be fairly isolated in nature. Turn
around and don't drown, if you encounter flowing water across a road
please don't try to cross.

Clouds, rain, and a reinforcing surge of cooler air will keep
temperatures in the 70s today, a welcome reminder that fall is just
a few weeks away. Unfortunately outdoor Labor Day plans may be
ruined due to the expected rain. The upper low bringing the rain
today will remain in the area tomorrow giving many locations another
good chance at making up this year's rainfall deficit. Conditions
will be similar to today with rain and clouds keeping temperatures
in the 70s again. Depending on the amount and areal coverage of
rainfall received today, there may be a need for a Flash Flood Watch
tomorrow.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

The rain chances remain a welcomed sight through the end of this
week. By the middle of the week, the stationary front across Far
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico remains firmly in place. While
this feature continues to support our cooler and wetter weather
pattern, the upper-low unfortunately begins to exit the region.
Despite this, a chance of showers and thunderstorms remains possible
each afternoon through Thursday for much of the area along and south
of I-20 nearest the frontal boundary. Temperatures during this time
continue their cooler stretch with lower to middle 80s being
maintained.

Unfortunately, this period is the last of the more substantial
rainfall potential for the time being. Another shortwave dives into
the southern Great Plains late Thursday and Friday. This pushes a
reinforcing front through the region, but drier air accompanies the
boundary this time. A slight chance of rain is maintained over the
higher elevations, but the lower elevations begin to dry out. This
drier pattern continues for all into next weekend as the upper-ridge
builds back towards the Four Corners and drier air is maintained
across the region. On the bright side, temperatures remain a touch
below normal in the upper 80s for the majority.

-Chehak

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Today will be chaotic with numerous showers in the area causing
CIG/VIS to bounce up and down through the next 24 hours. A general
worsening trend is expected with VFR/MVFR CIGs dropping to IFR by
00Z and continuing overnight. TS will be much more isolated than
showers and will have to be handled with amendments as needed
because knowing where TS will be with much advance warning will be
difficult.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               74  65  75  64 /  90  70  70  20
Carlsbad                 75  62  78  61 /  80  40  30  10
Dryden                   82  68  79  68 /  80  80  80  50
Fort Stockton            75  64  74  63 /  90  80  80  30
Guadalupe Pass           68  58  72  58 /  70  40  40  10
Hobbs                    75  60  77  60 /  80  30  40  10
Marfa                    73  60  74  59 /  90  60  70  20
Midland Intl Airport     73  65  75  64 /  90  60  70  20
Odessa                   73  65  75  66 /  90  60  70  20
Wink                     77  65  79  65 /  80  60  60  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....91
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-030700-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
200 AM CDT Mon Sep 2 2024 /100 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland