Tornado Warning 11, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
652 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...Severe storms likely through tonight...

Our first substantial severe event of the spring is underway with
numerous severe storms likely thru tonight. In addition to the
potential for all convective hazards, the threat for flash flooding
will increase tonight as well.

12Z RAOB data from KLZK showed modest instability beneath a
pronounced capping inversion with nearly 1500 J/kg SBCAPE, as well
as pronounced SRH values in excess of 300 m^2/s^2. Satellite trends
thru the morning have hinted at a gradual agitation of cumulus
across the area, although deep convection has been confined to
portions of OK/TX near a SW-to-NE oriented dryline. Anticipating at
least iso/sctd deep convection to initiate over Nrn portions of the
area by 21Z with the more substantial OK/TX convection moving into
Wrn sections around the same time.

The atmosphere these storms will act on remains volatile with a
large reservoir of strong instability (MUCAPE >3000 J/kg) for the
Wrn half of AR this afternoon. 19Z VAD profiles show similar flow
geometry compared to the 12Z RAOB, although the magnitude is
slightly lesser but still sufficient for modest SRH on the order of
200 m^2/s^2. LAPS analysis hints at a mesoscale boundary developing
across central AR coincident with a corridor of locally backed sfc
winds. Aloft, flow remains on the weaker side with nebulous synoptic-
scale forcing for ascent, so convective evolution today will be
largely driven by mesoscale processes/boundaries which inherently
carry low confidence in their predictability.

Current thinking maintains a gradual progression of severe
convection into the NW half of the area by 15/00Z, although more iso
convection will be possible downstream of this activity where
capping is overcome. Any of these storms will readily tap into the
primed atmosphere that's in place with rapid intensification likely.
All severe hazards will be possible, including destructive hail of 2
inches or greater and tornadoes, with the highest hail threat tied
to more discrete cells/clusters this afternoon/evening.

By late evening into tonight, upscale growth into a primarily
cluster/line morphology is anticipated as deep-layer flow aligns
with the mesoscale boundary in place across central AR. This will
support an increase in damaging wind potential with sig hail
becoming somewhat less likely, although iso instances of destructive
hail will remain possible. Gradual stabilization of the BL suggests
a decrease in the tornado threat overnight, but locally backed winds
along/S of the boundary coupled with a slight increase in low-level
flow will enlarge already favorable hodographs with a continued
tornado threat where cells maintain near-surface inflow.

Flash flooding will also be a concern given the highly anomalous
tropospheric moisture in place. NAEFS PWAT progs show mean values
around 1.5 inches (>90th percentile) loosely aligned with the
aforementioned boundary draped over central sections. Given
convective intensity and antecedent moisture, rainfall will be
intense along this corridor, and with the increasing likelihood of
training convection tonight, the flash flood threat will similarly
increase.

Storms should begin pushing SE of the area thru Fri morning as
consolidated outflows move SEwrd, but some lingering stratiform rain
will remain until later in the day when the synoptic cold front
pushes thru with drier air in its wake. Fair, mild weather is
expected thru Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

To begin the period, a weak disturbance will slide just to the south
of the state bringing light rain chances across portions of southern
and central Arkansas. High pressure is expected to move back into
the state by Monday promoting calmer and drier conditions through
the rest of the period.

Rainfall with this system will be on the lower end with QPF amounts
likely staying below a quarter of an inch. The highest rainfall
amount will be confined towards extreme southern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest towards the beginning and end of the
period with a cold front dropping temperatures Monday. High
temperatures Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons are forecast
to be in the lower 60s to mid 70s with overnight lows in the upper
30s to mid 40s. Freezing temperatures will be possible Monday and
Tuesday mornings across the north as the state falls into to the
lower 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Ongoing convection wl cont to expand in coverage and eventually
work to the southeast overnight. Flight conds wl deteriorate at
sites impacted by the storms, with MVFR/IFR conds bcmg common as
the evening progresses. Areal coverage wl gradually dcrs fm the NW
late tngt into Fri mrng, with little improvement in conds
expected.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...69
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
256 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-151000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
256 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight. All
modes of severe weather will be possible, especially for portions
of northwestern, western, central, and eastern Arkansas. Heavy
rainfall is also likely with the threat for flash flooding
increasing during the overnight hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

At or below freezing temperatures will be possible across portions
of northern Arkansas Monday and Tuesday mornings.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will be needed through tonight.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

69/67

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
726 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0527 PM     Hail             2 E Spring Lake Estates 36.36N 92.38W
03/14/2024  E1.00 inch       Baxter             AR   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

65

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
728 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Rea Valley          36.22N 92.56W
03/14/2024                   Marion             AR   Public

            Power poles broken.

&&

65

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
735 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

ARZ053-054-062-150100-
Hot Spring AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-
735 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Clark,
northwestern Dallas and south central Hot Spring Counties through 800
PM CDT
...

At 734 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Richwoods, or 9 miles southeast of Arkadelphia, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dalark...                         Joan...
Griffithtown...                   Willow...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southwestern
Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 9296 3402 9304 3425 9289 3411 9265
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 229DEG 23KT 3403 9295

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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