Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
116 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Line of strong to potentially severe storms will work from
    southern IN southward through central KY late tonight into
    early Tuesday morning.

*   Storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall and
    localized flooding. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
    possible.

*   Unsettled pattern with daily thunderstorm chances through the
    end of the week. Outside of storms, very warm and at times
    oppressively humid conditions expected each day, with the heat
    index exceeding 100 degrees at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 116 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Cluster of convection with torrential rainfall and gusty winds
continues to move east-southeast across southern Indiana this
morning.  Couple of stronger storms we have been watching include
one moving across southern Harrison and northern Meade county along
with another storm up in the Orange/Washington IN area.  The
Orange/Washington cell is a bit stronger and has decent cold pool
which may produce some wind gusts of 40-50 mph.  The Meade/Harrison
cell continues to move east-southeast and contains torrential
rainfall and fairly intense lightning.  Latest thinking is that this
cluster of convection will continue to advance east-southeast and
will impact areas north and east of a line from Perry county IN to
Marion/Casey county KY.  These storms will impact the Louisville
metro area overnight producing intense lightning and torrential
rainfall which could produce flash flooding in spots.  This activity
may advance east enough overnight to get into the Bluegrass region,
but the highest confidence in area to get hit would be that area
between Louisville and Frankfort (basically along the I-64 corridor).

Issued at 1052 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Convection is continuing to blossom over central Indiana and we have
even seen a cell develop over Dubois County. These storms are still
cellular and generally moving due east with the mean flow, while
deeper convection over southern Illinois is beginning to dive SSE
along the axis of DCAPE, more toward western Kentucky. Damaging
winds are the main threat, and until the storms become more linear,
large hail and tornadoes can't be ruled out either.

Overall trend from previous forecasts continues to be a bit slower,
but not prepared to slow things down too much as there will be an
acceleration if storms can organize into a line.

Any storms tonight will be capable of torrential rainfall, and
localized flooding is possible. For more significant flash flooding
to occur would require training or repeated heavy rainfall. Starting
to see a cluster of storms come together between Terre Haute and
Bloomington, and if they continue a gradual turn to ESE movement,
flash flooding could come into play, mainly in southern Indiana
roughly along and north of a line from Salem to Madison. Still
uncertainty in any other locations for repeated heavy rain.

Issued at 905 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Convection is beginning to fire from central Illinois across central
Indiana, roughly along the I-70 corridor.  It's cellular for now,
and just enough shear is present to allow storms to rotate. Look for
this activity to continue to blossom over the next couple hrs, and
likely organize into a line that will dive SSE, following the
instability gradient into the Ohio Valley.

SPC has just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for southern Indiana
and north-central Kentucky, clipping it west of Frankfort and
Lexington at least initially. There will be plenty of opportunity to
see how this complex unfolds to expand the watch as needed. There is
a window while storms are cellular that we could see a tornado risk,
especially in southern Indiana. However, as storms organize into an
accelerating line and we get deeper into the night, the tornado
threat will decrease or even end. Main threat with any storms will
be damaging winds.

Torrential rainfall is possible with storms tonight, but this
convective system will be progressive enough to limit concerns about
flooding. Will have to watch south-central Kentucky later in the
night for potential training, but not confident enough in where the
line will hang up to go with a Flood Watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Current visible satellite imagery over region shows mostly cloudy
skies over southern IN and central KY with a few breaks. MCS and
associated outflow did very little to disturb the very warm, moist
and unstable airmass currently over the Ohio Valley this afternoon.
Instability per the SPC meso analysis page was between 2500-3000
J/kg across all our CWA. Upper low currently located over Lake
Michigan and associated vort max coming out of WI/IL looks to
trigger convection over central IL into central IN around 00z this
evening then coalesce into a convective QLCS along the I-70 corridor
late this evening. Once it forms it is expected to push southward
towards the Ohio River by around 04-05z then continue to work
southward through central KY overnight into the early morning hours.
SPC continues to have southern IN and central KY under a Slight Risk
(2 out of 5) for severe weather this evening. Model soundings show
effective shear values between 25-30kts and a looping hodograph due
to the veering winds through the column especially in the lower
atmosphere. 0-1km SRH is around 120-140m2/s2 which supports the SPC
placing the area in a 5 percent tornado risk for this evening.
Strong damaging winds and a few spin-up tornadoes are all possible.

This activity will also be supported by a 25-40kt LLJ that will also
increase moisture transport into the area. PWAT values this
afternoon were between 1.7-1.9 and could be as high as 2" when the
storms move producing very heavy rain and with the flow of the LLJ
nearly parallel to the convective line, some training of the heavy
rain could be possible resulting in localized flash flooding. Given
the rain we have seen over the last couple of days, it wouldn't take
much to reach 1 to 3 hr MRMS FFG. potential storm total QPF could
range between 1.50" to 2.00" with some areas potentially getting
over 3 inches from these storms overnight.

The remnants of the MCS should work south and out of the area by
around 12z tomorrow morning. Initially we should see a break from
the activity but with increasing height from the strengthening upper
ridge over the south-central US, it will be hot and very humid as
dew points return to the mid/upper 70s and highs into the low 90s.
Decided to back off a few degrees from guidance as there are
questions about lingering convective debris over the area. Heat
index values will reach above 100 to near 105 tomorrow afternoon,
especially west of I-65.  Another MCS forming over IA tomorrow
morning will likely work along the remnant outflow boundary of the
departing MCS. Hi-res models pick up on this idea and show the next
round of storms working into western and central KY by tomorrow
evening. Once again, SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather for
tomorrow but this time a little further to the west including most
of IL and nosing into western KY with the bulk of our CWA in a
Marginal risk. Given the heat and ample amounts of moisture, there
will be plenty of instability with modest amount of deep layer
shear, organized convection is once again possible especially along
the lingering outflow boundary. Gusty damaging winds appears to be
the main threat along with heavy rains that could lead to localized
flooding once again across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Active weather pattern looks to continue into Tuesday night as the
region remains on the outer periphery of an upper level ridge where
shortwaves and/or vort max's will traverse. Unsurprisingly, models
vary on some of the temporal and spatial details, likely because
they are too small to 'capture' and/or not being resolved well.
Convection may already be ongoing to start off Tuesday night, but
additional storms could stream in from the northwest Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Much like the previous wave(s), it will feature some
low-end severe and flooding threats given modest low/mid level shear
and instability in a very moist airmass.

It's not until about Thursday that we see a slight change in the
upper level pattern. A shortwave trough will come diving into the
northern Plains and eventually swing into the Great Lakes region. In
response to that feature, upper heights will build into the region
from the southwest, shifting the active storm pattern some to our
north and east. While rain/storm chances can't be completely ruled
out, if this pattern holds, capping in the low/mid levels from the
influence of upper ridging without any sort of lifting mechanism at
the surface would tend to result in a drier forecast.

A weak frontal boundary is likely to push into the region Thursday
night into Friday AM, bringing the potential for more
showers/storms. The forecast from the weekend going into early next
week remains a bit uncertain, but the general consensus is to
advertise low PoPs and slightly 'cooler' temps (near normal climo
values) as stout upper ridging remains centered over the western
CONUS and broader/weaker troughing slowly shifts into the far
eastern CONUS, shunting most of the stronger flow aloft and
waves/vort max's well into the northern U.S. and southern Canada.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Active weather will be seen at the KSDF/KLEX terminals this morning
as a cluster of strong convection drops south and east out of
southern Indiana and into portions of north-central and east-central
Kentucky.  Storms will mainly have heavy rainfall which may reduce
visibilities down to 1/2-1SM at times with wind gusts of 25-35kts as
they pass through.  Activity should exit KSDF by 30/07-08Z and clear
KLEX by 30/09-10Z.  MVFR/IFR cigs may remain in the KLEX terminal
toward sunrise and into the morning hours.  After sunrise, look for
VFR conditions to become dominant across the region with a broad
west/west-southwest flow.  Winds may become gusty in the early-mid
afternoon, if strong mixing occurs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...DM
AVIATION...MJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
347 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-302000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
347 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024 /247 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Line of strong to potentially severe storms is possible late this
evening through the overnight hours. Storms will be capable of
producing torrential rainfall and localized flooding. Damaging winds
and a few tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Unsettled weather will persist this week with thunderstorms possible
each day. The stronger storms could produce torrential rainfall,
localized flooding, and gusty winds.

Hot and humid conditions are expected, with heat index values
possibly exceeding 100 Tuesday through Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

BTN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1157 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

INZ083-084-089-KYZ025-300445-
Crawford IN-Perry IN-Dubois IN-Meade KY-
1157 PM EDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN DUBOIS...CENTRAL
CRAWFORD...NORTHERN PERRY AND NORTHWESTERN MEADE COUNTIES THROUGH
1245 AM EDT/1145 PM CDT/...

At 1156 PM EDT/1056 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles southwest of English, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Carefree Town, Mount Pleasant, Leopold, Birdseye, Leavenworth, Alton,
Roberta, Beechwood, West Fork, and Sulphur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3834 8671 3828 8628 3818 8632 3818 8633
      3817 8632 3802 8638 3817 8677
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 287DEG 21KT 3823 8666

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ/REJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1240 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

INZ084-089-090-KYZ025-028-300515-
Crawford IN-Perry IN-Harrison IN-Meade KY-Hardin KY-
1240 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD...EAST CENTRAL PERRY...MEADE AND NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN
COUNTIES THROUGH 115 AM EDT/1215 AM CDT/...

At 1240 AM EDT/1140 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles south of Carefree Town, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brandenburg, Muldraugh, West Point, Elizabeth, Ekron, Mauckport,
Alton, Laconia, New Amsterdam, and Roberta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT/300 AM
CDT/ for south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3821 8644 3811 8591 3801 8594 3801 8595
      3800 8594 3787 8599 3803 8647 3805 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 286DEG 25KT 3811 8640

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ/REJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1255 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

INZ076-077-300530-
Orange IN-Washington IN-
1255 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN ORANGE AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 AM EDT...

At 1255 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Bedford, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paoli, Orleans, Stampers Creek, Campbellsburg, Hardinsburg, Livonia,
Saltillo, Bromer, Leipsic, and Woodlawn Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
south central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 8607 3842 8638 3869 8655 3869 8631
      3873 8631 3874 8629 3876 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 329DEG 31KT 3875 8642

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Graham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
117 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

INZ084-090-KYZ025-028>030-300600-
Crawford IN-Harrison IN-Jefferson KY-Bullitt KY-Meade KY-Hardin KY-
117 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN HARRISON...SOUTHEASTERN
CRAWFORD...CENTRAL MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN JEFFERSON...WEST CENTRAL
BULLITT AND NORTH CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

At 117 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brandenburg, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Brandenburg, Valley Station, Pleasure Ridge Park, Muldraugh, West
Point, Elizabeth, Mauckport, Laconia, New Amsterdam, and New Boston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
south central Indiana...and central Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 8639 3818 8635 3815 8582 3788 8588
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 280DEG 23KT 3808 8621

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ/REJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
119 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

INZ076-077-090>092-300545-
Orange IN-Washington IN-Floyd IN-Clark IN-Harrison IN-
119 AM EDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN HARRISON...WEST
CENTRAL CLARK...NORTHWESTERN FLOYD...EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT...

At 118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Paoli, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Galena, New Pekin, Palmyra, Borden, Greenville, Campbellsburg,
Hardinsburg, Livonia, and Fredericksburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
south central Indiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 8636 3868 8623 3846 8581 3826 8600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 308DEG 32KT 3866 8638

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Graham

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