Flash Flood Warning 85, NWS New Orleans, LA

276 
WGUS54 KLIX 120242
FFWLIX
LAC005-007-047-093-095-120345-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240912T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
942 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Ascension Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northern Assumption Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Iberville Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  St. James Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  West Central St. John The Baptist Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* Until 1045 PM CDT.

* At 942 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
  shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Donaldsonville, Napoleonville, Gramercy, Lutcher, Convent, Belle 
  Rose, Paincourtville, North Vacherie, Wallace and Garyville.

This includes the follwing Interstate...
	Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 192 and 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 9122 3011 9100 3015 9063 2999 9065
      2996 9092 2989 9120 2992 9123 2993 9123
      2995 9125 2996 9125 2999 9126 3000 9126
      3000 9123 3003 9122

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Zeringue

358 
WGUS54 KLIX 120317
FFWLIX
LAC005-007-047-093-095-120545-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240912T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1017 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southwestern Ascension Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Northern Assumption Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  Southern Iberville Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  St. James Parish in southeastern Louisiana...
  West Central St. John The Baptist Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* Until 1245 AM CDT.

* At 1017 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Flooding impacts will continue, but no additional 
  rainfall is expected. Flash flooding is ongoing.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Donaldsonville, Napoleonville, Gramercy, Lutcher, Convent, Belle 
  Rose, Paincourtville, North Vacherie, Wallace and Garyville.

This includes the follwing Interstate...
	Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 192 and 197.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 9122 3011 9100 3015 9063 2999 9065
      2996 9092 2989 9120 2992 9123 2993 9123
      2995 9125 2996 9125 2999 9126 3000 9126
      3000 9123 3003 9122

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Zeringue

957 
WGUS74 KLIX 120527
FFSLIX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1227 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

LAC005-007-047-093-095-120537-
/O.CAN.KLIX.FF.W.0085.000000T0000Z-240912T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ascension LA-Assumption LA-Iberville LA-St. James LA-St. John The
Baptist LA-
1227 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ASCENSION, NORTHERN 
ASSUMPTION, SOUTHERN IBERVILLE, ST. JAMES AND WEST CENTRAL ST. JOHN 
THE BAPTIST PARISHES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

&&

LAT...LON 3004 9122 3011 9100 3015 9063 2999 9065
      2996 9092 2989 9120 2992 9123 2993 9123
      2995 9125 2996 9125 2999 9126 3000 9126
      3000 9123 3003 9122

$$

Zeringue

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
139 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine continues to move generally northeast toward
the eastern portions of Vermillion Bay. Landfall should be around
sunset this evening and the storm will continue to move north and
east into southern MS by late tonight and early Thursday morning.
Overall, no impact changes from the overnight package with the
highest winds residing along and west of I-55 and south of I-12.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will continue to spread over the
region increasing the flash flood potential across the region.
Otherwise, a dry slot seems to have developed just east of the
center which is likely going to further entrain into the system as
it continues to move north and east...so any additional
strengthening of the hurricane will be extremely limited. With the
dry air entrainment, think that some of the outer bands will start
to rotate leading to a higher tornado potential, especially north
and east of the center of Francine. Storm surge will also begin to
increase with max surge generally along the Terrebonne coast. That
said, as water piles into the tidal lakes remember it will likely
take time especially with onshore flow continuing for some of the
water to drain on the backside of the storm, which may result in
high waters for a couple of high tide cycles.

The storm as it pulls northward away from the region, expect dry
conditions to take over leading to much better weather going into
the day on Thursday. Dry northwesterly flow will set up with much
of any residual rain/storms move east and north away from the
CWFA. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dry northwesterly flow will continue into the start of the
weekend as we remain on the western periphery of the upper level
trough over the southeast U.S. A weak vort/mid level impulse will
develop and move southward within this flow, which should bring
with it some increased POPs by Sunday and into the start of the
new workweek. Temperatures will again increase starting Friday and
into the weekend and beyond, however, with the upper trough in
place, expect temperatures to only climb into the upper 80s or
lower 90s. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Rainbands are now moving into the KMCB area with the inner core beginning
to encroach on KHUM and Terrebonne Parrish areas. Ceilings at all
airfields are either below, or soon to be below, IFR conditions.
Low level wind shear will be an issue at all stations through
12/12 utc. Have indicated IFR conditions in the prevailing groups
everywhere except for KGPT. Looking at flight tracking websites,
KGPT still has scheduled service indicated for them into the
overnight hours and have utilized TEMPO groups there through
12/00 utc to try to account for some gaps/spacing between
peripheral rainbands. As the center moves inland after 12/00 utc
and the winds begin to shift to a more southerly direction expect
KGPT to go below IFR and stay there.

KHUM hasn't reported an ob in several hours and assume that field
is closed/evacuated. I have not NILed the forecast as I am
assuming that information could be useful for planning Preliminary
Damage Assessment flights. Understand that the TAF is based on a
total observation concept based on satellite imagery, radar and
neighboring observations, use it with caution.

The center is still forecast to pass between KBTR and KHDC between 12/03
to 12/07 utc with rapidly shifting winds at those fields.
Hurricane force gusts will be near, if not over, KHDC at the
center's Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Have topped the gusts
there out at 60 knots, but that's a very fine line with the Radius
of Maximum Winds (RMW) progged to pass very close to (the west
of) the airport.

The center will pass near, or directly over, KMCB between 12/08 to 12/11
utc. As with the previous AFD am not going to try to forecast
that aspect. Also any shift to the west could bring hurricane
force gusts to KMCB as well. It is just a matter of miles in track
deviation between the calm center or the RMW moving over the
field.

Winds will gradually diminish for the fields along and south of
Interstate 10 after 12/06 utc but conditions will remain gusty
until after 12/18 utc. A low stratus/cumulus deck between 1-1.5
kft will move in from off the Gulf behind the system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue across the local waters as
Hurricane Francine moves through the outer waters south of
Terrebonne Bay. The hurricane will make landfall later this
afternoon or early evening. Dangerous conditions will persist
through the overnight and into early Thursday before improvement
begins as the storm moves more to the north and east away from the
region. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  81  63  84 / 100  40  10   0
BTR  72  86  68  89 /  90  20   0   0
ASD  73  86  68  88 /  90  30  10   0
MSY  73  86  71  87 /  80  20   0   0
GPT  73  85  70  87 / 100  50  10  10
PQL  76  88  71  90 / 100  60  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Watch for LAZ058-060-076>078-080-082>084-087>089.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-058-060-064-069>071-
     076>084-087>090.

     Hurricane Warning for LAZ046>048-056-057-059-065>068-085-086.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ530.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-
     572-575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ550-570.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

GM...     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-
     575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ570.

&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...ACS-JAX
MARINE...RDF

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
513 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     Tropical Cyclone 2 SW Dulac              29.35N 90.73W
09/11/2024                   Terrebonne         LA   Mesonet

            58 mph sustained wind with gust to 77 mph at
            Mesonet station XDUL Dulac.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
530 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     Tropical Cyclone 2 SW Dulac              29.35N 90.73W
09/11/2024                   Terrebonne         LA   Mesonet

            61 mph sustained wind with a gust to 83 mph
            at Mesonet station XDUL Dulac.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
538 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     Tropical Cyclone 2 SW Dulac              29.35N 90.73W
09/11/2024                   Terrebonne         LA   Mesonet

            Sustained wind of 68 mph with a gust to 96
            mph at Mesonet station XDUL Dulac.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
559 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     Tropical Cyclone 1 NNW Kenner            29.99N 90.26W
09/11/2024                   Jefferson          LA   ASOS

            Wind gust to 59 mph at ASOS station KMSY New
            Orleans Intl-Louis Armstrong.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
619 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0542 PM     Tropical Cyclone 25 S Grand Isle         28.89N 90.03W
09/11/2024                   GMZ552             LA   Mesonet

            Sustained wind of 46 mph with a gust to 59
            mph at Mesonet station LOPL1 24 S Grand
            Isle.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
640 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 WSW Walker            30.46N 90.90W
09/11/2024                   Livingston         LA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Tree down on house E. Lakeside in Walker;
            relayed in slack.

&&

DSS