Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
139 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Hurricane Francine continues to move generally northeast toward
the eastern portions of Vermillion Bay. Landfall should be around
sunset this evening and the storm will continue to move north and
east into southern MS by late tonight and early Thursday morning.
Overall, no impact changes from the overnight package with the
highest winds residing along and west of I-55 and south of I-12.
Additionally, heavy rainfall will continue to spread over the
region increasing the flash flood potential across the region.
Otherwise, a dry slot seems to have developed just east of the
center which is likely going to further entrain into the system as
it continues to move north and east...so any additional
strengthening of the hurricane will be extremely limited. With the
dry air entrainment, think that some of the outer bands will start
to rotate leading to a higher tornado potential, especially north
and east of the center of Francine. Storm surge will also begin to
increase with max surge generally along the Terrebonne coast. That
said, as water piles into the tidal lakes remember it will likely
take time especially with onshore flow continuing for some of the
water to drain on the backside of the storm, which may result in
high waters for a couple of high tide cycles.

The storm as it pulls northward away from the region, expect dry
conditions to take over leading to much better weather going into
the day on Thursday. Dry northwesterly flow will set up with much
of any residual rain/storms move east and north away from the
CWFA. (Frye)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dry northwesterly flow will continue into the start of the
weekend as we remain on the western periphery of the upper level
trough over the southeast U.S. A weak vort/mid level impulse will
develop and move southward within this flow, which should bring
with it some increased POPs by Sunday and into the start of the
new workweek. Temperatures will again increase starting Friday and
into the weekend and beyond, however, with the upper trough in
place, expect temperatures to only climb into the upper 80s or
lower 90s. (Frye)

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Rainbands are now moving into the KMCB area with the inner core beginning
to encroach on KHUM and Terrebonne Parrish areas. Ceilings at all
airfields are either below, or soon to be below, IFR conditions.
Low level wind shear will be an issue at all stations through
12/12 utc. Have indicated IFR conditions in the prevailing groups
everywhere except for KGPT. Looking at flight tracking websites,
KGPT still has scheduled service indicated for them into the
overnight hours and have utilized TEMPO groups there through
12/00 utc to try to account for some gaps/spacing between
peripheral rainbands. As the center moves inland after 12/00 utc
and the winds begin to shift to a more southerly direction expect
KGPT to go below IFR and stay there.

KHUM hasn't reported an ob in several hours and assume that field
is closed/evacuated. I have not NILed the forecast as I am
assuming that information could be useful for planning Preliminary
Damage Assessment flights. Understand that the TAF is based on a
total observation concept based on satellite imagery, radar and
neighboring observations, use it with caution.

The center is still forecast to pass between KBTR and KHDC between 12/03
to 12/07 utc with rapidly shifting winds at those fields.
Hurricane force gusts will be near, if not over, KHDC at the
center's Closest Point of Approach (CPA). Have topped the gusts
there out at 60 knots, but that's a very fine line with the Radius
of Maximum Winds (RMW) progged to pass very close to (the west
of) the airport.

The center will pass near, or directly over, KMCB between 12/08 to 12/11
utc. As with the previous AFD am not going to try to forecast
that aspect. Also any shift to the west could bring hurricane
force gusts to KMCB as well. It is just a matter of miles in track
deviation between the calm center or the RMW moving over the
field.

Winds will gradually diminish for the fields along and south of
Interstate 10 after 12/06 utc but conditions will remain gusty
until after 12/18 utc. A low stratus/cumulus deck between 1-1.5
kft will move in from off the Gulf behind the system.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Dangerous marine conditions continue across the local waters as
Hurricane Francine moves through the outer waters south of
Terrebonne Bay. The hurricane will make landfall later this
afternoon or early evening. Dangerous conditions will persist
through the overnight and into early Thursday before improvement
begins as the storm moves more to the north and east away from the
region. (Frye)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  81  63  84 / 100  40  10   0
BTR  72  86  68  89 /  90  20   0   0
ASD  73  86  68  88 /  90  30  10   0
MSY  73  86  71  87 /  80  20   0   0
GPT  73  85  70  87 / 100  50  10  10
PQL  76  88  71  90 / 100  60  20  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hurricane Watch for LAZ058-060-076>078-080-082>084-087>089.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-058-060-064-069>071-
     076>084-087>090.

     Hurricane Warning for LAZ046>048-056-057-059-065>068-085-086.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

     Storm Surge Warning for LAZ058-066>070-076-078-080-082-084.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ530.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-552-555-557-
     572-575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ550-570.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ068>071-077-083>088.

     Storm Surge Warning for MSZ086>088.

GM...     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-552-555-557-572-
     575-577.

     Hurricane Warning for GMZ570.

&&

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...ACS-JAX
MARINE...RDF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1046 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

LAZ066-111615-
Lower Terrebonne LA-
1046 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
TERREBONNE PARISH THROUGH 1115 AM CDT
...

At 1043 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing landspouts or waterspouts over inland lakes 19
miles south of Amelia, or 23 miles south of Morgan City, moving
northwest at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts, waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects. Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create
         locally hazardous waters.

This storm will remain over mainly marshy areas of southwestern
Terrebonne Parish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2932 9119 2933 9116 2931 9116 2933 9113
      2936 9116 2936 9123 2933 9123 2935 9127
      2937 9125 2938 9120 2943 9121 2945 9126
      2948 9128 2954 9127 2960 9118 2939 9090
      2922 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 129DEG 51KT 2938 9105

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

LAZ059-067>069-088-111745-
Lower Plaquemines LA-Lower Jefferson LA-Lower Lafourche LA-
Upper Lafourche LA-Coastal Jefferson LA-
1213 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
JEFFERSON, EAST CENTRAL LAFOURCHE AND WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES
PARISHES THROUGH 1245 PM CDT
...

At 1212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms capable of producing waterspouts over marsh areas
along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Buras to 12 miles
southwest of Port Sulphur to 13 miles east of Golden Meadow.
Movement was northwest at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port Sulphur, Pointe A La Hache, Empire, and Grand Isle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2927 8969 2929 8982 2927 8991 2919 9002
      2960 9023 2963 9005 2956 8971 2916 8943
TIME...MOT...LOC 1712Z 147DEG 29KT 2925 8956 2934 8982 2941 9006

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JRK

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