Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
340 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Elevated storms earlier today that brought hail and heavy rains
are now transitioning into surface based storms with the
possibility of tornadoes and damaging winds to go along with hail
and heavier rainfall as higher low level instability now surges
onshore. Above 64F dew points seems like the magic number to see
where the higher instability air that surface based activity can
get rooted. Some areas have seen some clearing and solar heating
that will just allow for more instability as storms redevelop.

Discrete cells that have been occurring, will continue to develop
through the remainder of the afternoon, with activity eventually
congealing into a squall line ahead of the cold front. Severe
threat with the discrete cells will be mainly tornadoes and
damaging winds, then transitioning into damaging wind/large hail
with the squall line, although some embedded quick spin up
tornadoes can not be ruled out.

Of other note is the potential for heavy to excessive rainfall.
Latest special upper air sounding from 20z shows PWAT values over
1.5 inches, which is well over the 90th percentile, and mid and
lower relative humidity values over 90 percent. Therefore, the
strong convection will produce high rain rates with rates around 2
inch per hour. Also, as flow starts to become more parallel to the
mid level flow and the front, the potential for cell mergers and
training will come about increasing the flood risk. Therefore, the
flood watch was extended to include all of the Louisiana portions
of the forecast area as some heavy rainfall amounts have already
occurred earlier today priming the situation for potential
flooding.

Timing still shows the cold front entering southeast Texas around
5 pm and exiting lower Acadiana shortly after midnight.

Drier air will gradually move in behind the front with shower
activity gradually ending before daybreak.

For Tuesday, cooler conditions will be around with good cold air
advection despite the sunshine. Northwest low level jet around 50
knots is expected. With mixing, expect some of these winds reach
the surface with wind advisory criteria continuing until sunset.

Remainder of the short term looks cool with fair conditions.

Rua

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The roller coaster of storms will continue with the next system
scheduled for Thursday night/early Friday that again could bring
strong gradient winds and the potential for severe weather.

As we get toward the end of the period there is still some
question as to how soon a potential cold blast will reach the
forecast area. Currently, this issue looks to be beyond the
forecast period and early next week.

Rua

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase as we head
into the afternoon hours. MVFR and IFR conditions will occur with
the storms. Also, strong and gusty winds will continue with
frequent gusts over 30 knots.

Conditions will not improve until after a cold front moves across
the terminals between 09/00z-04z. Winds will then become from the
northwest and still stay rather gusty with gusts over 20 knots.
Clouds will gradually clear with VFR conditions developing.

On Tuesday, mainly clear skies with VFR conditions. The main issue
will be winds again with west-northwest winds frequently gusting
over 30 knots.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Gale conditions to continue through Tuesday as the strong onshore
flow will become strong offshore flow. Low level jet around 50
knots is seen behind the cold front late tonight into Tuesday, and
with good cold air advection moving over the relatively warmer
waters, some decent turbulence and mixing should occur to allow
frequent gusts over 40 knots to reach the surface.

The strong onshore flow through this evening will produce the
potential for coastal flooding with tide levels 1.5 to 2.5 feet
above astronomical predicted levels. This will be replaced by
strong offshore flow that will bring about quite a current running
through the ship channels and pushing the water out of coastal
lakes and bays producing low water conditions by morning.

Conditions will improve overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as high
pressure settles over the region.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  36  50  27  58 /  90   0   0   0
LCH  41  52  34  60 /  90   0   0   0
LFT  45  54  34  60 /  90  10   0   0
BPT  40  54  35  64 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for LAZ027>033-073-074-
     141>143-241>243.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ044-045-055-152>154-
     252>254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LAZ073-
     074.

     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight CST tonight for LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ615.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>