Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

At the moment the higher instability environment with dew points
in the mid 60s+ is located from the southwest side of Houston into
the northwest Gulf about 40 to 60 nm offshore. Right now, shower
and storm activity that is moving into the forecast area is
elevated but showing strong mid level rotation. Therefore, the
threat in the near term will be hail from these cells.

Latest VAD from KLCH shows a good 50 knot low level jet from 2K to
6K feet with a veering profile with height. The low level jet is
only expected to strengthen as we head into the afternoon. This
should help push the warm front and higher instability axis inland
increasing the threat for surface based storms and the severe
risk. This also should help increase gradient winds even away from
the storms. So the severe threat from surface based discrete cells
are looking at from noon to 6 pm, with then a squall line feature
from 6 pm to midnight.

No changes are needed at this point to forecast. Be weather aware.

Rua

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Upper level low pressure continues to take shape across the SW US
this morning per recent UA analysis and WV imagery, with a closed
low now noted over NM. While WV imagery also shows some residual
dry air aloft over the region, moisture has been steadily
increasing since last evenings KLCH RAOB. PWATs at the time of the
sounding (00Z) were 0.25-0.30 inches, and now range from around
0.5 to 0.7 inches per LAPS Layer PW analysis.

Regional surface analysis shows low pressure already developing
and strengthening over W TX/E NM, with pressures at Tucumcari
(KTCC) in eastern NM falling from 998.2 to 996.2 mb over the 3
hours from midnight to 3 AM. Winds have strengthening considerably
across TX and will be doing so across our area over the next few
hours as the low continues to deepen.

This large storm system will bring significant hazards to the
area today, including very strong winds, severe weather, heavy
rainfall with the possibility of flooding, along with marine and
coastal impacts.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The strong and dynamic system is expected to mature as it
progresses over the southern plains today. The primary surface low
over W TX will slowly move toward W OK through the day, while a
surface trough is expected to form across central TX this morning,
evolving into a close low as it moves east toward E TX/W LA. This
will enhance southerly low level flow, allowing warm sector
intrusion across the area. Dewpoints are progged to climb into the
low to middle 60s across the area through the afternoon. A very
tight pressure gradient will develop in response to the deepening
low, with a 50-70 KT LLJ translating east across TX into LA.
Aloft, an 80 KT SWly jet streak in advance of the main 500 MB jet
will be situated atop the LLJ, providing strong deep layer shear.
Forecast soundings depict large curved hodographs, with low level
storm relative helicity values exceeding 400 m2/s2 in the 0-1KM
layer and over 1000 m2/s2 in the 0-3KM layer. Deep layer moisture
advection will allow PWATs to climb to near 1.7 inches today,
which is near the max value for this time of year, and 2-3
standard deviations above normal.

The following are the hazards of concern with this system, and the
latest updates:

Severe weather...
Conditions are expected to become increasingly conducive for
storms to become organized today. Convection will likely begin
early this morning, increasing in coverage and intensity going
into the afternoon hours. The main challenge or inhibiting factor
for storms to really acquire severe characteristics will be a
relatively stable and moist near surface layer, but warm advection
should help to begin eroding this layer and help increase
destabilization. ML CAPE values are expected to climb above 1200
J/kg and possibly up to around 2000 J/kg later today. The
combination of shear and instability should favor rotating
updrafts by this afternoon, with all modes of severe weather
possible. While discrete supercell type storms can be expected
this afternoon, an evolving squall line is expected to form across
TX along the front and move across the area later this evening,
providing a secondary risk for damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes.

SPC has maintained a ENH risk for severe storms across
south central LA, with a risk for strong tornadoes and damaging
wind gusts of 74 MPH. A SLGT risk is in place for the remainder of
the area.

Heavy Rainfall and Flooding...
With PWATs progged to climb to unusually high values, storms
should be efficient precipitation producers. Heavy rainfall and
high rainfall rates will contribute to the potential for flooding
across the area, and a Flood Watch remains in effect for portions
of south central LA where rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
expected. Cell mergers and the potential for a few training storms
will enhance the risk for locally higher amounts in a few
locations, and WPC has continued a MDT risk for excessive rainfall
across this area. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches
will be common, with a SLGT risk for excessive rainfall across the
remainder of SW LA and a MRGL risk across SE TX.

Gradient Winds...
The strong wind fields across the region will result in east to
southeast winds today between 20 and 30 MPH with gusts possibly as
high as 45 MPH. Once the front moves through tonight, winds will
shift westerly. A strong LLJ will develop behind the low, with
winds potentially mixing to the surface, resulting in sustained
speeds again between 20 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 45 MPH. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for both today and Tuesday, and was
extending to include the overnight period. Although winds will
briefly subside with the frontal passage, winds will remain
elevated and gusty, and should begin strengthening again from west
to east before daybreak.

Coastal Flood...
A coastal flood advisory was maintained across SE TX and SW LA as
the strong southerly fetch will produce tide levels between 1.5
and 2.0 FT MHHW. Minor flooding will be possible along the
Jefferson County coast as well as Cameron Parish. Further east,
the advisory was upgraded to a coastal flood warning as tides near
Eugene Island are expected to climb above 2.0 FT MHHW later today.
This could lead to significant flooding across coastal portions of
south central LA.

Conditions should finally be improving by Tuesday night as surface
high pressure builds across the region. A much colder airmass will
spread into the region, with lows Tuesday night possibly falling
into the upper 20s across interior SE TX and central LA. At this
time, a hard freeze is not expected. Dry and mild weather will
continue into midweek as southerly winds return with the high
moving east.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

The long term portion of the forecast period begins with yet another
period of transition aloft as a zonal flow through the mid-week gets
replaced by a more swrly flow aloft in response to a digging trof
over the wrn CONUS. Meanwhile, a srly low-level flow is progged to
develop behind passing sfc high pressure. Moisture will continue to
steadily increase through the day with forecast soundings indicating
mean RH values around 60 percent and PWAT values to near 1.25 inches
by 12z Friday. A significant shortwave rounding the base of the trof
will approach the region through Thursday night, spreading good lift
across the area, while also helping spin up/deepen a sfc low over
TX. The combo of all these features is expected to lead to
widespread shower development beginning Thursday evening and
continuing through Friday morning when the shortwave and an
associated sfc cold front sweep through the area. Forecast soundings
also show sufficient lapse rates/CAPE for some storm development
along with plenty of wind/low-level speed shear. As usual, the main
issue will be how much instability will develop. And speaking of the
wind, Friday looks very windy with the approach/deepening of the sfc
low significantly tightening the gradient, along with good CAA...and
advisory conditions look like a good bet at the moment.

Once the trof axis/sfc low/attendant cold front swing through
the forecast area on Friday, precip should gradually end from west
to east with dry weather expected for the duration of the long term.
In its place will be drier but much cooler conditions as good low-
level CAA develops with an Arctic airmass gradually settling over
the region. Still looking at the possibility of borderline hard
freeze conditions Saturday morning for the usual cold-prone nrn-most
locations, while apparent temps could briefly touch the high teens
across the nrn tier of zones.

25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase as we head
into the afternoon hours. MVFR and IFR conditions will occur with
the storms. Also, strong and gusty winds will continue with
frequent gusts over 30 knots.

Conditions will not improve until after a cold front moves across
the terminals between 09/00z-04z. Winds will then become from the
northwest and still stay rather gusty with gusts over 20 knots.
Clouds will gradually clear with VFR conditions developing.

On Tuesday, mainly clear skies with VFR conditions. The main issue
will be winds again with west-northwest winds frequently gusting
over 30 knots.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...A Period of Hazardous Marine Conditions Expected Monday Through
Tuesday...

Conditions will deteriorate over the coastal waters late tonight
and on Monday as a deep surface low pressure system forms over
the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. As the low moves to the east, a
low level jet of 50 to 60 knots will develop across the northwest
Gulf of Mexico. This will likely translate into frequent gusty
winds down to the surface in the 40 to 45 knot range with seas
offshore building to 8 to 12 feet. Therefore, a Gale Warning has
been issued for all marine zones starting on Monday morning.

Showers and thunderstorms will also develop out ahead of the low
with some of the storms become strong to severe with the potential
for waterspouts beginning late Monday morning and continuing into
Monday evening.

As the low moves off to the east on Monday night, a trailing cold
front will move through the coastal waters. Decent cold air
advection and turbulence behind the cold front will likely be
sufficient to mix some stronger winds associated with a low level
jet down to the surface. Therefore, again frequent gusts over 45
knots will be possible with seas building up to 14 feet, and the
Gale Warning will continue into Tuesday.

With this issuance, a low water advisory has been issued. The
strong offshore winds will allow for water to be pushed out of
the local lakes and bays with tide guidance showing actual levels
falling to near (-1) feet mean lower low water that would create
low water conditions on Tuesday morning. With the quick change
from very high to very low tides in the 12 to 15 hour range, there
should be quite a fast current running down the ship channels.

Conditions will improve overnight Tuesday into Wednesday as high
pressure settles over the region.

Rua/24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  36  50  27 / 100  90   0   0
LCH  69  41  52  34 /  90  90   0   0
LFT  70  45  54  34 / 100  90  10   0
BPT  72  40  54  35 /  90  90   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for LAZ027>033-044-045-055-
     073-074-141>143-152>154-241>243-252>254.

     Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ044-045-055-153-154-253-
     254.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LAZ073-
     074.

     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight CST tonight for LAZ252>254.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ615.

GM...Gale Warning until 9 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432-435-436-450-
     452-455-470-472-475.

     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ430-432.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...07

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
117 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

LAZ031-032-141-142-081945-
Evangeline LA-Allen LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-
Northern Jefferson Davis LA-
117 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
SOUTHWESTERN EVANGELINE...EAST CENTRAL CALCASIEU AND ALLEN PARISHES
THROUGH 145 PM CST...

At 117 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Buller, or 7 miles south of Reeves, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to vegetation and outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iowa, Kinder, Oberlin, Elton, Elizabeth, Fenton, Reeves, Mittie,
Buller, Harmony, Topsy, Lebleu Settlement, Allen Parish Airport, and
Leblanc.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3089 9278 3080 9269 3055 9252 3025 9302
      3025 9309 3027 9313 3044 9313 3060 9301
      3060 9298 3064 9298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 218DEG 54KT 3041 9303

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

78