Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
625 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Severe Thunderstorms Watches 237 continue through 8 PM & 239
through Midnight. Very severe MCS moving very quickly with a
history of 60 to 80 mph winds and tornadoes. Portions of these
watches will likely be cleared behind the TSRA clusters as it is
moving to the east around 40 mph. Another cluster of TSRA across
the coastal waters likely to remain along the coast into the
coastal waters.

08/DML

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast remains on track this afternoon as MCS is gaining steam
across SETX. We are starting to see the rear inflow jet descend
into the backside of the line with multiple bowing segments
evident on radar. This will quickly shift us from hail threat to
wind threat. It is quite possible, fairly widespread wind damage
could accompany this MCS as it pushes east into 3000-4500 j/kg
MLCAPE. We could see some significant wind gusts upwards of 65kts
localized across the areas as well. With the sufficient shear and
deep unidirectional flow parallel to the bndry layer, this MCS
should track across the I-10 corridor. Any large hail will be from
supercells anchoring along the bndry and/or cell mergers, before
they merge into the main MCS.

Flash flood threat remains, especially on the northern flank
where some areas are seeing 1-2hrs of very heavy to intense
rainfall rates. This will continue along the bndry, but flash
flood threat along the main MCS will be more so from intense
rainfall rates in urban areas. HREF LPMM continues to show areas
approaching 5 or 6 inches of rain generally along/north of I-10 to
US 190.

The threat for a tornado or two remains possible, but will be
confined to circulations along the MCS as it marches east.

It will take some time for the MCS to finally exit the region,
with lingering stratiform rain/gusty winds in the wake of the
MCS. By 06Z, much of the activity should be east of the CWA, but
some uncertainty remains as to timing.

The rest of Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and warm/muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Moving forward into Thursday notable low-level subsidence will be
present over SETX / SWLA throughout the morning while the upper
level flow carries a slight amplification along the southern Plains
and Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a partially cutoff shortwave
from the northern stream pattern over the Four Corners regions
quickly begins to merge into the pattern north allowing a narrow
neck of speed divergence over Texas to develop surface troughing
across the state and TX/LA Gulf Coast by the end of the day. There
has been much variability in the signals of specific QPF. Previous
analysis suggested a surface low shifting inland from the SW below
the ARKLATEX region generating shower / thunderstorm activity along
the sfc low and associated warm front lifting NE over the
Mississippi Valley through Friday evening.

The region of divergence aloft is very progressive across the
Mississippi into the SE CONUS with the aforementioned weak surface
low moving off the Delaware Capes by Saturday, however, with only
broad ridging suggested in the wake of the system, the potential for
isolated to scattered POPs remains unsettled over lower SETX and
SWLA with a stalled frontal boundary that could easily interact with
minor perturbations aloft. Overall, this transitioning pattern,
though still unsettled, does not indicate signal of significant
weather headlines Friday through the upcoming weekend. This analysis
of the forecast is congruent with the SPC understanding of no severe
weather risks in the day 4-8 outlook. Convective modes of hazardous
weather aside, it is worth noting given the variance of guidance
with the recently experienced wet pattern, portions of SETX and SWLA
carry both a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Thursday – Friday
night- ending Saturday morning. Thus, the big picture in the long
term is determining further rainfall on top of already well
saturated soils.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Severe thunderstorm cluster hitting LFT now and ARA within the
next half hour. LFT just gusted to 69 kt or 79 mph, expect
something similar for ARA within a few minutes. Remainder of
forecast will see MVFR ceilings overnight, with MVFR visibility
possible for southern sites between 10-14z. Improving conditions
expected for Tuesday.

08/DML

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Moderate southerly winds will continue into the evening hours
ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary extending along the TX / LA
Gulf Coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase west
to east through tonight, with a few strong to severe storms
likely. Heavy rainfall rates are likely over the coastal water
through midnight into Tuesday which will severely reduce
visibility at times amidst strong thunderstorm gusts. Winds will
shift westerly on Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night with the
passage of a weak cold front. Winds will gradually veer back
southeast by Wednesday night, with rain chances returning by
Thursday as another low pressure system approaches the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  86  61  88 /  60   0   0   0
LCH  67  87  65  88 /  70   0   0   0
LFT  70  89  66  90 /  70  10   0   0
BPT  67  89  66  89 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     141>143-152-153-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....78
AVIATION...08

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
614 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SW Lafayette          30.17N 92.08W
05/13/2024  E60 MPH          Lafayette          LA   Local Official

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0611 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NNW Carencro          30.34N 92.05W
05/13/2024  E60 MPH          Lafayette          LA   NWS Employee

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
616 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 N Maurice             30.17N 92.14W
05/13/2024                   Lafayette          LA   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
617 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 NE Crowley            30.25N 92.35W
05/13/2024  M56 MPH          Acadia             LA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station LSU03 Crowley.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
619 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Lafayette          30.17N 92.07W
05/13/2024                   Lafayette          LA   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
623 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     Hail             2 SW Abbeville          29.95N 92.15W
05/13/2024  E0.75 Inch       Vermilion          LA   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&