Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
157 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY... Issued at
1120 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

NOTE: We will be launching a special sounding here shortly to
sample how the environment is evolving this morning.

Current satellite imagery only shows minor breaks in the clouds
across the area, however insolation is more than enough to push
temps into the lower and middle 80s. This is combined with TDs in
the upper and lower 80s, yielding impressive MLCAPE upwards of
3000 J/KG. This will likely climb to at lets 4000 J/KG later this
afternoon.

All modes of severe weather remain likely with the potential for
supercells developing along/just south of the warm
front/stationary bndry by early afternoon. With these initial
cells, very large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado
will be possible.

The threat quickly shifts to a MCS by evening with parameters
pointing to a strong, likely damaging MCS, with localized swaths
of wind greater than 60 kts. This is seen in the 12Z HREF
guidance with even stronger winds in the coastal waters. As the
MCS tracks across the region, damaging winds, some significant
(65kts+), will be the primary concern with isolated QLCS
tornadoes possible.

The flood threat will be with initial HP supercells training
along the frontal bndry and any cell mergers into the main MCS. As
the MCS develops and moves east, the flash flood threat will
shift to intensity of rainfall rates and higher rates in urban
areas. 12Z LPMM HREF guidance suggest isolated totals up to 6" is
possible.

Remaining uncertainty - The evolution of the MCS and the eventual
track. Latest ThetaE gradient suggests across the I-10 corridor,
but a southern track, with the worst of the impacts offshore
cannot be ruled out. HREF neighborhood probabilities of 50kts+ are
highest just offshore, but 10-50% along the I-10 corridor to the
coast. This is where the highest confidence currently exists for
strongest winds.

We will have another update early afternoon with the latest
forecast package and sounding data. Please see early morning
discussion for additional information.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

An active pattern continues tonight, with a strong storm moving
east across the Lakes Region toward western LA. Additional scattered
showers and an isolated storm or two are noted on KLCH/KPOE
radars across the area. Regionally, multiple convective clusters
are noted across the central and N LA into MS. These storms
remain rather potent, even without the added energy of daytime
heat, thanks to a rather robust impulse crossing the region aloft.
The latest WV imagery and UA analysis shows the main low system
driving this extended active pattern spinning over SW KS as it
moves slowly east. South of this feature, an active subtropical
jet continues to supply copious moisture over the area, while
lower in the atmosphere, elevated southerly winds continue to
advect Gulf moisture northward.

At the surface, a warm front is draped from inland SE TX (north of
I-10 east and southeast toward the lower Atchafalaya Basin). North
of this front, temperatures remain in the middle to upper 60s,
while to the south, a warm and muggy airmass has returned with
temperatures in the upper 70s and dewpoints only a degree or two
lower.

A Flood Watch remains in effect for today north of the I-10
corridor to Hwy 190 corridor in LA. Radar estimated rain amounts
of at least 2 inches fell across much of the flood watch area
yesterday, with localized amounts of up to 4-5 inches. The area
remains in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall
today. But perhaps the greater concern for today will be severe
weather, and SPC has recently upgraded their Day 1 outlook to an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 out of 5), with damaging wind gusts and
large hail the primary threats.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

The mid/upper low and its attendant surface reflection will
slowly migrate east across the central US. This will lift the warm
front further inland, allowing a more buoyant warm sector to
overspread the area. Warming in the lower levels will provide
substantial destabilization today, with surface based CAPE values
increasing to 3000-4000+ J/kg while midlevel lapse rates steepen
to 8+ C/km. Enhanced midlevel westerlies translating over the
region amid of series of perturbations aloft, will provide
sufficient deep layer shear to support organized updrafts once
convection initiates by midday across portions of central/SE TX.

CAM guidance suggests convection will evolve into a squall
line/MCS as it progresses east into our area later this
afternoon/evening. Timing and overall coverage remain somewhat
uncertain however, and CAMs have struggled with convective
initiation/evolution in this rather complex pattern. Given the
strong midlevel lapse rates, there is a significant risk (greater
than 10%) for hail larger than 2 inches across the area. This will
be in addition to the potential for damaging wind gusts within any
bowing segments as well as a few isolated QLCS-type tornadoes.

Beyond the risk for severe weather, there is an ongoing concern
for flooding. While the axis of extreme PWATs (greater than 2
inches) looks to shift east toward SE LA, values over the region
will continue to be between 1.7 and 1.9 inches (still at least 2
standard deviations from the mean). This will support efficient
rainfall production with high rainfall rates within some of the
storms. HREF LPMM rain accumulations indicate multiple 1 to 3
inch swaths across the area (with localized higher amounts).
Again, there is some uncertainty regarding where these belts of
higher rain totals could set up and CAM storm total solutions
vary quite a bit. At this time, will opt to leave the Flood Watch
as it is, but an extension southward may be needed should the
axis shift closer to I-10 (as the HRRR seems to indicate).

The last of the convection for this round should be exiting to the
east late tonight into the overnight hours as the main trough axis
moves into the region. The passage of this low system will drag a
weak cold front through the area on Tuesday, allowing for a much
needed but short-lived break in the wet pattern. Any coolness
associated with the front will be felt mainly overnight, with
lows possibly falling into the lower to middle 60s by Wednesday
morning. Otherwise, daytime temperatures will remain near or even
warmer than normal, with the potential for highs around 90 degrees
across southeast TX on Wednesday.

Unfortunately, the next round of rain will return to our doorstep
Wednesday night as the next disturbance moves toward the region.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Precip chances return Thursday as a warm front lifting North out of
the gulf is overrun by a couple of disturbances aloft ahead of a
cold front that will then push through the region over the weekend.
Guidance has been in consistently good agreement on deep moisture
pooling with forecast PWAT values climbing to near or slightly above
2 inches. This will allow for rounds of torrential rainfall that
could lead to flash flooding especially across parts of Southeast
Texas that have seen well above normal rainfall this spring. There
is more uncertainty regarding the timing of the end of the precip
following fropa. The most widespread activity looks to be Thursday
through Friday morning with the better upper level energy, but the
moisture will remain in place until the fropa sometime Saturday
afternoon to Sunday morning.

The airmass behind the front won't be appreciably cooler or drier as
it's getting rather late in the season for airmass changing cold
fronts, but it will scour out the moisture aloft bringing precip to
an end through early next week.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

VCTS shifting toward BPT and SETX through early afternoon with LCH
and AEX to follow shortly during the mid to late afternoon.
Conditions will periodically limit VIS to LIFR near and in heavy
thunderstorms but otherwise trend MVFR ceilings outside of storms
throughout the evening. Sites LFT and ARA will trend to similar
conditions with 2-3 hour later offset compared to SETX. Do note,
convective storms will likely bring +TSRA conditions periodically to
all site through 14th / 0800Z before shifting east leaving low MVFR
/ IFR ceiling leading into daybreak. Shortly after, dry air will mix
these conditions out to VFR with skies clearing into the midday
hours.

30

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 407 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Moderate southerly winds will continue through tonight, but
should relax below exercise caution levels this morning. Shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase later today
into tonight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, with
strong wind gusts, large hail and isolated waterspouts possible.

Winds will shift westerly on Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night
with the passage of a weak cold front. Winds will turn back to the
east and southeast by Wednesday night, with rain chances
returning by Thursday as another low pressure system approaches
the area.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  86  61  88 /  60   0   0   0
LCH  67  88  65  89 /  70   0   0   0
LFT  70  89  68  90 /  70  10   0   0
BPT  68  89  66  89 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     141>143-152-153-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1146 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 W Newton              30.85N 93.78W
05/13/2024                   Newton             TX   Public

            Homeowner called to report wind damage at
            her residence. Trees were snapped between
            her and neighbors. Mentioned twisted cedar
            trees, lots of debris all over the place.
            Most reported damage occurred near 1710
            Court rd.

&&

CK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
219 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

TXZ201-515-131945-
Hardin TX-Upper Jefferson TX-
219 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON AND
HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 219 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sour Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Beaumont, Lumberton, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Saratoga, Bevil Oaks,
China, Batson, and Honey Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9430 3011 9411 3000 9444 3011 9445
      3011 9460 3034 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 235DEG 18KT 3016 9449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Tingler