Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
615 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The warm front is currently lifting across the region with a rapid
destabilization of the atmosphere underway. CAMs show a robust
and rapid development of showers and storms with multiple focus
areas. The first area will be an east/west oriented MCS walking
south that will move into central LA and inland SETX this evening.
The second focus will be in the broader warm sector south of the
lifting warm front.

Numerous showers and storms will rapidly intensify and drift/merge
into the MCS walking south. This will enhance the overall flash
flood threat as training convection could lead to impressive
1hr/3hr totals, especially where cell mergers are able to push
instantaneous rainfall rates in the 5-7" range. With already
saturated grounds and elevated/flooded waterways, it will not take
much for significant flash flooding. In fact, we have much of the
area in a moderate and high risk for this very threat. These High
Risk days are exceedingly rare and account for the majority of
flood fatalities. We can not emphasize enough how quickly things
could go south as the evening wears on. Flash flooding is even
more dangerous at night.

For the severe threat, there is a Tornado Watch until 11pm for the
entire area. Tornadoes will be possible with any QLCS circulation
and/or supercell along/just south of the lifting warm front.
Damaging winds and large hail will also pose a threat this evening
withe modest HREF probabilities showing wind gusts in excess of
50kts and localized areas upwards of 60kts possible. The focus
area seems to be along the I-10 corridor.

With regards to rainfall amounts, widespread 2-6 inches are
likely, which is supported by all guidance with HREF
LPMM/HRRR/Other high res CAMs showing a reasonable worst case (90%
exceedance) scenarios of approaching 12" of rain. Highest
probabilities for these totals exists across inland SETX and into
central LA.

Now for the second round from Friday afternoon into Friday evening
and early Saturday morning. This situation will be different as SW
flow increase across the area with robust upper level diffluent
flow. This overall synoptic pattern remains stationary for some
time, which will allow significant and sustained moisture
advection streaming across the region. While severe weather is
possible, flash flooding remains the biggest threat. PWAT values
could reach into the 2.0 to 2.25"+ range with favorable and
efficient ingredients for intense rainfall rates and training.
ECMWF EFFI values point to significant rainfall totals, which
further adds to the building confidence in the second round. As
always, there remains some uncertainty as to where the axis of
heaviest rainfall sets up. Currently guidance suggest this will
fall primarily over Acadiana and generally east of a line from
Lake Charles to Opelousas. Several more inches of rain will be
possible in these areas with new/renewed/worsening flash flooding
impacts. It is likely some areas will overlap seeing significant
rainfall from round 1 and 2, thus increasing their flood risk.

Finally by early Saturday morning, much of the activity should be
exiting the region. Lingering showers/storms will be possible
over Acadiana, but much of the area dry.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The start of next week will be dominated by high pressure that will
settle overhead. The high pressure will remain our main weather
feature through Wednesday. Clear skies and south winds will lead to
widespread low 90-degree highs across the region, with dew points in
the mid-70s. This will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s
and even a few inland areas feeling like the triple digits.

Long-range models are starting to hint at another round of rain on
Thursday as a disturbance moves across the region. It is still way
too far out to give any specifics, but we could see our temperatures
dip down back into the upper 80s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

An upper level disturbance will move east across the forecast area
this evening and tonight and bring a likely meso complex of storms
with it. Have tried to time this feature as best as possible.
Gusty winds, lower visibilities with heavy rainfall and low
ceilings will be possible with the storms, with IFR conditions.

Expecting a break after 17/06z, with the potential for more storms
on Friday afternoon.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the
coastal waters this evening and continue into Friday evening as a
low pressure system moves across the area. Onshore flow will
between 15 and 20 knots will continue this evening as the low
approaches increasing seas to 3-5 feet. Winds and seas could be
significantly stronger in the vicinity of storms. Winds will
weaken by Friday afternoon with seas gradually falling through the
weekend. No precip is expected this weekend through next week as
light onshore flow prevails.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  81  66  87 /  90  40  40  30
LCH  70  85  70  87 /  80  50  50  20
LFT  72  89  71  87 /  80  60  60  40
BPT  72  85  69  89 /  70  40  40  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for LAZ027>033-044-045-
     141>143-152-241>243.

TX...Flood Watch through late Friday night for TXZ180-201-259>262-515-
     516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...78
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
901 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

LAZ030-031-073-074-141-142-241-242-170245-
West Cameron LA-Southern Calcasieu LA-Allen LA-Beauregard LA-
Southern Jefferson Davis LA-Northern Calcasieu LA-
Northern Jefferson Davis LA-East Cameron LA-
901 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL CAMERON...CENTRAL
JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHEASTERN BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALLEN PARISHES THROUGH 945 PM CDT...

At 901 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Elton to near Evangeline to Thornwell to
near Creole to near Cameron. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Charles, Cameron, Westlake, Welsh, Iowa, Kinder, Oberlin,
Fenton, Reeves, Grand Lake, Moss Bluff, Lake Charles Regional
Airport, Hacketts Corner, Topsy, Lebleu Settlement, Gillis, Leblanc,
Sweet Lake, Buller, and Harmony.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 25 and 56.
 Interstate 210 between mile markers 1 and 12.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for southwestern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9333 2980 9333 2979 9335 2982 9360
      3019 9332 3062 9319 3067 9280 3032 9272
      3010 9294 2977 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 285DEG 38KT 3053 9268 3034 9260 3008 9278 2977
9319 2979 9336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Calhoun

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
953 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 SSE Cade              30.03N 91.88W
05/16/2024  M67 MPH          Iberia             LA   AWOS

            AWOS station KARA 4 SSE Cade.

&&

MKC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1038 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SW Lafayette          30.17N 92.07W
05/16/2024                   Lafayette          LA   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

0904 PM     Flash Flood      Jennings                30.23N 92.65W
05/16/2024                   Jefferson Davis    LA   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

0628 PM     Flood            2 SW De Ridder          30.82N 93.31W
05/16/2024                   Beauregard         LA   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1041 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE New Iberia         30.01N 91.81W
05/16/2024                   Iberia             LA   Public

            Report from mPING: Street/road flooding;
            Street/road closed; Vehicles stranded.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1044 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NE Saint Martinville  30.16N 91.78W
05/16/2024                   St. Martin         LA   Public

            Public reports roof blown off of home in St.
            Martinville. Time estimated by radar.

&&

MKC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1047 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WSW Lafayette         30.21N 92.05W
05/16/2024                   Lafayette          LA   Public

            Photo received of a tree snapped off in
            Lafayette.

&&

MKC