Special Weather Statement, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Key West FL
450 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Squalls have been lashing the Keys this afternoon, with the
strongest one moving through the western Lower Keys around 2 pm.
This squall produced wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph between Key West
and Big Coppitt. This same squall has tracked across the length of
the Keys, and the leading edge is now moving through the Upper
Keys. Stratiform rain has tailed this squall, but there are other
embedded stronger storms still lurking to our west and south.
Outside of convection, winds have started to come down across the
coastal waters. With Tropical Storm Debby well to our north now,
the Tropical Storm Warning in the waters west of the 7-mile Bridge
have been removed and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. The
Wind Advisory and the Coastal Flood Advisory has also been
cancelled as these south to southwesterly winds have trended
downwards and the highest tide of the day has passed.

Tropical Storm Debby will continue to trek to the northwest to
north over the next few hours and will gradually strengthening.
The storm is forecast to become a hurricane overnight before it
reaches the Big Bend Coast. There is high confidence of a landfall
in northern Florida. After this, the forecast becomes a lot
murkier. The two steering mechanisms, an upper trough dipping
across the Southeast and an expansive high in the North Atlantic,
will actually work against each other and hinder TS Debby from
quickly jutting up the East Coast. Model guidance is suggesting
that the storm will meander off the Southeast coast for a bit,
bringing astronomical rain totals to that area. Depending on the
exact trajectory of the storm, we could remain in its expansive
moisture envelope for a while. With southwesterly steering flow
for a majority of next week, this could be a good setup for a
reverse cloud line development. Have nudged PoPs up to 40 % for
Tuesday through Thursday to account for this. Otherwise, the
forecast is status quo with near normal rain chances and
temperatures through the remainder of the extended forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

The Tropical Storm Warning in the coastal waters west of the
7-Mile Bridge has been cancelled and been replaced by a Small
Craft Advisory. The Small Craft Advisory in all other waters east
of the 7-Mile Bridge has been continued. Tropical Storm Debby
continues to track northward and away from the Florida Keys
coastal waters. However, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
all Florida Keys marine zones for residual southerly winds and
elevated seas through at least late this evening. High pressure
building across the Atlantic, interacting with slow- moving Debby
over the Southeast United States, will result in generally light
to gentle southerly breezes for much of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 450 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

As Tropical Storm Debby moves north northwest away from our coastal
waters, conditions will begin to improve for the terminals. Squalls
passing through are still possible through this evening into
tonight, but frequency will start to diminish as the storm continues
on. Near surface winds are elevated at near 25 knots with gusts of
30 to 35 knots and will start to decrease to near 20 knots later
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  90  83  91 /  50  30  30  30
Marathon  82  90  83  91 /  50  30  30  40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP/JAM
Data Acquisition.....JAM

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-052030-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
418 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Florida Keys coastal
waters. Southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots will slowly slacken late
this evening and overnight. Seas in the Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico will subside to below 7 feet in the
late overnight hours.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with occasional squalls this
evening will gradually decrease in coverage and intensity tonight.
The primary hazards will be cloud to surface lightning strikes,
heavy downpours, and strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period. The primary hazards will be cloud to surface lightning
strikes, heavy downpours, and locally strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service Key West FL
254 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     Tropical Cyclone 9 SW Key West           24.45N 81.88W
08/04/2024                   GMZ044             FL   C-Man Station

            A southwest wind gust of 41 knots, or 47
            mph, was measured by the Sand Key Light
            C-MAN station at 130 PM EDT.

0145 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 E Key West            24.56N 81.76W
08/04/2024  M52 MPH          Monroe             FL   ASOS

            A southwest wind gust of 45 knots, or 52
            mph, was measured by the ASOS at Key West
            International Airport at 145 PM EDT.

0146 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E Key West            24.56N 81.73W
08/04/2024  E47 MPH          Monroe             FL   Mesonet

            A southwest wind gust of 41 knots, or 47
            mph, was measured by a mesonet station at
            the Stock Island Plant at 146 PM EDT.

0200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Boca Chica              24.58N 81.68W
08/04/2024  M55 MPH          Monroe             FL   ASOS

            A southwest wind gust of 48 knots, or 55
            mph, was measured by the ASOS at NAS Key
            West on Boca Chica at 200 PM EDT.

0247 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 W Key West            24.56N 81.80W
08/04/2024                   Monroe             FL   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Reports of a tree down blocking the road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
352 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ076-077-042015-
Monroe Upper Keys FL-Monroe Middle Keys FL-
352 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MIDDLE KEYS IN MONROE AND UPPER
KEYS IN MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Duck Key, or 9 miles south of West End Of Long Key
Viaduct, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
East End Of Long Key Viaduct, Long Key Viaduct, Channel 5 Bridge,
East End Of Channel 5 Bridge, West End Of Channel 5 Bridge, West End
Of Long Key Viaduct, Teatable Key, Lower Matecumbe Key, Long Key, and
Duck Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 59 and 82.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2482 8093 2482 8088 2487 8077 2493 8071
      2494 8069 2492 8062 2487 8064 2479 8078
      2478 8086 2472 8096
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 201DEG 26KT 2465 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JAM

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