Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Key West, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

Wind observations along the Lower and Middle Keys prompted the
cancellation of both the Tropical Storm Watch and Tropical Storm
Warning. Despite the fact that winds in the Lower Keys dropped
below TS criteria, a wind advisory issued for sustained winds near
25 mph with gusts to near 35 mph. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains
in effect until this afternoon, with the highest water levels
likely seen on the Atlantic side of the island chain due to the
strong southerly winds. The rain threat has minimized, so the
Flood Watch has also been dropped.

Tropical Storm (TS) Debby continues to strengthen, with good
convective towers on GOES infrared imagery. Maximum sustained
winds of TS Debby have increase to 65 mph and are expected to
increase this afternoon as the system intensifies. Closer to home,
the western coastal waters are blanketed in a shield of
stratiform rain with embedded stronger showers. A few of these
stronger showers have moved over the Lower Keys over the past few
hours, resulting in wind gusts between 45 to 50 knots. KBYX radar
highlights a large squall in the Straits of Florida pivoting
towards the Lower Keys, and we will keep an eye on this squall and
issue products as necessary. These squalls will continue as the
tail of TS Debby whips through our area. As TS Debby shifts
farther north and away from the Florida Keys forecast area tonight
and tomorrow, conditions will begin to improve. Winds should
start subsiding further by later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for all coastal
waters west of the 7-Mile Bridge. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for all coastal waters east of the 7-Mile Bridge. Tropical
Storm Debby is centered about 130 miles west southwest of Tampa,
FL and is still tracking north-northwestward at approximately 12
kts through the Gulf of Mexico. As Tropical Storm Debby moves even
farther away this afternoon and tonight, the strong and gusty
breezes will finally trend lighter. Monday through at least
Thursday night, gentle to moderate south to southwest breezes
will prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

As Tropical Storm Debby moves north northwest away from our coastal
waters, conditions will begin to improve for the terminals. Squalls
passing through are still possible through this evening but
frequency will start to diminish as the storm continues on. Near
surface winds are elevated at near 25 knots with gusts of 30 to 35
knots and but will start to decrease to near 20 knots later this
evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  88  83  90  83 /  90  50  30  30
Marathon  89  82  90  83 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     FLZ076>078.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031-032-042-043-052-053-072-073.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ033>035-044-054-055-074-075.

&&

Public/Marine/Fire...NB
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Key West FL
1202 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075-051615-
Monroe Upper Keys-Monroe Middle Keys-Monroe Lower Keys-
Florida Bay including Barnes Sound, Blackwater Sound, and
Buttonwood Sound-
Bayside and Gulf side from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge-
Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee 20 to 60 NM out
and beyond 5 fathoms-
Gulf of Mexico including Dry Tortugas and Rebecca Shoal Channel-
Gulf of Mexico from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon
Shoal out to 5 Fathoms-
Hawk Channel from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out to the reef-
Hawk Channel from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile Bridge out
to the reef-
Hawk Channel from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to Halfmoon Shoal
out to the reef-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas out 20 NM-
Straits of Florida from Ocean Reef to Craig Key 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Craig Key to west end of Seven Mile
Bridge 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from west end of Seven Mile Bridge to south of
Halfmoon Shoal 20 to 60 NM out-
Straits of Florida from Halfmoon Shoal to 20 NM west of Dry
Tortugas 20 to 60 NM out-
1202 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Florida Keys and
adjacent coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the western
Straits of Florida and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, including
the Dry Tortugas. Tropical Storm conditions with southerly winds
of near 30 knots will continue across this area this afternoon as
Tropical Storm Debby pushes northward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the adjacent nearshore
and offshore coastal waters of the Middle and Upper Keys.
Southerly winds of 20 to 25 knots today will gradually decrease
this afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys
through this evening for sustained winds of 25 mph, with gusts up
to 35 mph.

Abnormally high tides and strong onshore winds will result in
minor saltwater flooding across the Florida Keys through early
this afternoon, with water levels peaking 1 to 2 feet above
ground or mean higher high water. There is a slight risk of minor
overwash for Atlantic facing beaches and seawalls. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remains in effect.

There is a marginal risk for severe weather this morning, with
the main threat being an isolated tornado or two or isolated
damaging wind gusts.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and occasional squalls today
will gradually decrease this afternoon and tonight. The primary
hazards will be cloud to surface lightning strikes, heavy
downpours, and strong to locally damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period. The primary hazards will be cloud to surface lightning
strikes, heavy downpours, and locally strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
1151 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ078-041615-
Monroe Lower Keys FL-
1151 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A STRONG SQUALL WILL IMPACT LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY THROUGH
1215 PM EDT...

At 1150 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Geiger Key, or 7 miles south of Boca Chica, moving
north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Key West, Big Coppitt Key, Boca Chica Channel Bridge, Boca Chica, Key
Haven, Saddlebunch Keys, Geiger Key, Bay Point, Shark Key, and Upper
Sugarloaf Key.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 4 and 20.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2469 8176 2473 8168 2470 8162 2477 8159
      2478 8154 2481 8152 2482 8150 2459 8153
      2453 8171 2452 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 183DEG 33KT 2447 8166

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Key West FL
1213 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Big Coppitt Key         24.60N 81.65W
08/04/2024  M48 MPH          Monroe             FL   Mesonet

            At 1200 PM, a southerly wind gust of 42
            knots, or 48 mph, was measured by the Big
            Coppitt Substation Mesonet.

&&

AJP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Key West FL
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

FLZ078-041815-
Monroe Lower Keys FL-
126 PM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024

...A STRONG SQUALL WILL IMPACT LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY THROUGH
215 PM EDT...

At 125 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Sunset Key, or 13 miles south of Key West, moving
north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Key West, Boca Chica, Big Coppitt Key, Boca Chica Channel Bridge,
Saddlebunch Keys, Geiger Key, Sunset Key, Shark Key, Fleming Key, and
Key Haven.

This includes US 1 between mile markers 0 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2452 8189 2459 8188 2458 8184 2466 8180
      2471 8171 2472 8169 2468 8156 2456 8162
      2453 8171 2452 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1725Z 197DEG 33KT 2437 8183

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AP