High Wind Warning 1, NWS Jackson, KY

437 
WWUS73 KJKL 120357
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1057 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

KYZ088-118-121300-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.240112T1200Z-240112T2200Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T2200Z-240113T1200Z/
Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, 
and Whitesburg
1057 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST
FRIDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...During the High Wind Warning, expect southeast to south
  winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph or higher for locations
  above 2500 feet elevation and immediately downwind of Pine and
  Black Mountains, and expect southeast to south winds of 15 to 20
  mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph elsewhere. During the Wind
  Advisory, expect southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 
  to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Harlan and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 7 AM to 5 PM EST 
  Friday. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM Friday to 7 AM EST 
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is 
  from Friday morning into the afternoon, especially for ridgetops
  and areas of more open terrain as well as locations immediately
  downwind of Black and Pine Mountains. The second timeframe is 
  from late Friday evening into the night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
120-121300-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T1200Z-240113T1200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1057 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Expect southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with
  gusts of 35 to 50 mph on Friday, with isolated higher gusts
  possible. For Friday evening and Friday night, southwest winds 
  of 15 to 30 mph, with widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is 
  from Friday morning into the afternoon, especially for ridgetops
  and areas of open terrain. The second timeframe is from late 
  Friday evening into the night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JP/HAL

878 
WWUS73 KJKL 120821
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
321 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

KYZ088-118-121800-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.240112T1200Z-240112T2200Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T2200Z-240113T1200Z/
Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, 
and Whitesburg
321 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO
5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...During the High Wind Warning, expect southeast to south 
  winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 60 mph or higher for 
  locations above 2500 feet elevation and immediately downwind 
  of Pine and Black Mountains, and expect southeast to south 
  winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph elsewhere. 
  During the Wind Advisory, expect southwest winds 15 to 30 mph 
  with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Harlan and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM
  EST this afternoon. For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this
  afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is from
  this morning into the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and
  areas of more open terrain as well as locations immediately
  downwind of Black and Pine Mountains. The second timeframe is
  from late this evening into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
120-121800-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T1200Z-240113T1200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
321 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Expect southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with
  gusts of 35 to 50 mph to develop this morning and continue into
  the afternoon, with isolated higher gusts possible. For this
  evening and tonight, southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, with 
  widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is from
  this morning into the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and
  areas of open terrain. The second time frame is from late this
  evening into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

393 
WWUS73 KJKL 121634
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1134 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

KYZ088-118-130045-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T2200Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T2200Z-240113T1200Z/
Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, 
and Whitesburg
1134 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...During the High Wind Warning, expect southeast to south 
  winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 60 mph or higher for 
  locations above 2500 feet elevation and immediately downwind 
  of Pine and Black Mountains, and expect southeast to south 
  winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph elsewhere. 
  During the Wind Advisory, expect southwest winds 15 to 30 mph 
  with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Harlan and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 5 PM EST this afternoon.
  For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
  Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is into
  the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and areas of more open 
  terrain as well as locations immediately downwind of Black and 
  Pine Mountains. The second timeframe is from late this evening 
  into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
120-130045-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1134 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Expect southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with 
  gusts of 35 to 50 mph to develop this morning and continue 
  into the afternoon, with isolated higher gusts possible. For 
  this evening and tonight, southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, 
  with widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is into
  the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and areas of open 
  terrain. The second time frame is from late this evening into 
  the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JP

439 
WWUS73 KJKL 121641 CCA
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1141 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

KYZ088-118-130045-
/O.CON.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T2200Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T2200Z-240113T1200Z/
Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, 
and Whitesburg
1141 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...During the High Wind Warning, expect southeast to south 
  winds 20 to 30 mph, with gusts to 60 mph or higher for 
  locations above 2500 feet elevation and immediately downwind 
  of Pine and Black Mountains, and expect southeast to south 
  winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph elsewhere. 
  During the Wind Advisory, expect southwest winds 15 to 30 mph 
  with gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Harlan and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, until 5 PM EST this afternoon.
  For the Wind Advisory, from 5 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST 
  Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is into
  the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and areas of more open 
  terrain as well as locations immediately downwind of Black and 
  Pine Mountains. The second timeframe is from late this evening 
  into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
120-130045-
/O.COR.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
1141 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Expect southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with
  gusts of 35 to 50 mph during the afternoon, with isolated 
  higher gusts possible. For this evening and tonight, southwest 
  winds of 15 to 30 mph, with widespread gusts of 40 to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strongest and most frequent wind gusts
  are generally expected during two time frames. The first is into
  the afternoon, especially for ridgetops and areas of open 
  terrain. The second time frame is from late this evening into 
  the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JP

835 
WWUS73 KJKL 122140
NPWJKL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
440 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

KYZ088-118-130700-
/O.CAN.KJKL.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T2200Z/
/O.EXT.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.240112T2140Z-240113T1200Z/
Harlan-Letcher-
Including the cities of Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, 
and Whitesburg
440 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to
  50 mph, especially from late this evening through tonight.

* WHERE...Harlan and Letcher Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts are expected to be weaker early
  this evening and then increase again from late this evening 
  into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106>117-119-
120-130700-
/O.CON.KJKL.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1200Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, 
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, 
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, 
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, 
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, 
Pineville, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, 
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, 
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, 
Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
440 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, with gusts of
  40 to 50 mph, especially from late this evening through tonight.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, south central and 
  southeast Kentucky.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts are expected to be weaker early
  this evening and then increase again from late this evening 
  into the overnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
117 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024

Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations
and trends. These generally lowered dewpoints a bit from the
previous forecast as well as raised temperatures in some of the
south and southwest a degree or two. With sunshine persisting
over the next couple of hours, an upward adjustment to high
temperatures of a couple of degrees was made in the locations that
were running a bit warmer than the previous forecast. Overall,
forecast changes at this point are minimal.

The main forecast challenge of the next 24 to 48 hours remains the
gusty wind threat during Friday morning into the afternoon and
again from later in the evening into Friday night after a bit of a
lull late Friday afternoon to early evening. Some adjustments were
made to the NPW and the HWO to highlight these threat periods.

UPDATE Issued at 650 AM EST THU JAN 11 2024

The forecast largely remains on track. Have fine tuned temperature
grids, as S/SW surface winds and passing low to mid-level clouds
have aided in bringing temperatures up in some locations compared
to the running forecast. Have adjusted accordingly through the
morning hours. Have also tweaked sky grids, as coverage has now
departed east of the area. Lastly, included the latest Td/Wind obs
for consistency. Updated grids have been sent to NDFD and
Webfarms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EST THU JAN 11 2024

Key Points:

* Dry and mild today, with highs topping out above average in the
  mid to upper 40s near/north of I-64 to low 50s along the border of
  Tennessee.
* Strong winds are expected ahead of an approaching low pressure
  system Friday into Saturday, with gusts of 40 to 55 mph, and
  locally higher, expected. A Wind Advisory has been issued to cover
  the threat of strong or damaging winds.
* Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts within showers or
  thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

A generally clear and quiet night across Eastern Kentucky.
Temperatures vary from the low 20s in sheltered eastern valleys, to
low and mid 30s on ridgetops and across the more mixed Cumberland
Basin. A passing shield of low and mid-level clouds are noted on the
IR and Microphysics channels, which is expected to scrape across
locations north of the Hal Rogers Parkway through the AM hours. This
could limit the quicker drop-off of temperatures early this morning,
but most should still bottom out in the low 20s across deeper
valleys and upper 20s to around 30 degrees elsewhere.
Clearer/sunnier skies will then find us area-wide into the late
morning and afternoon, as the disturbance north of the area departs.

Through the short-term period, guidance is in good agreement. A
shortwave will ride northward from the Midwest to Great Lakes,
contributing to the aforementioned cloud cover this morning. Subtle
heights rises are expected, as a shortwave ridge trails the wave and
meanders across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes this afternoon. At
the surface, high pressure is stationed across Florida but will
progress off-shore through the day. Return flow will allow for a
surge of above average temperatures this afternoon, and again
Friday, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s today and low to mid
50s Friday. The upper pattern then reloads for our next disturbance
the second half of the period and into the extended. A deepening
wave, originating from the Pacific Northwest, will dive through the
Southern Plains before lifting and closing off into the Midwest by
the end of the period. This will support quickly deepening low
pressure, with anomalously low pressure readings possible.
Deterministic guidance suggests a SD of -4 and NAEFS ensemble
guidance is right on par with similar thinking. All this to say,
another very climatologically strong low is expected to impact the
region Friday into the weekend.

This system will force an occluded front out of the Tennessee Valley
and towards the area by period's end, where widespread rainfall, a
few storms, and very gusty winds are anticipated ahead of the
boundary. With deep layer moisture advection ahead of the system,
PoPs will increase through Friday, peaking Friday afternoon.
Soundings highlight some growing instability through the day, which
paired with the broad upper level support, could result in a few
strong to severe storms - damaging winds being the primary threat.
Outside of convective winds, the environment will be conducive for
very gusty winds. The Euro ensemble depicts high agreement within
ensemble members for gusts of 40 mph or greater for the CWA, and
medium probability (50% or greater) for gusts exceeding 60 mph in
the high terrain bordering Virginia and into portions of the
Tennessee Valley. Deterministic guidance also backs their parent
ensembles, with BUFKIT GFS momentum transfer to around 50 kts
throughout Friday. Given the high agreement and confidence in strong
winds, even outside of stronger showers or thunderstorms, have
hoisted a Wind Advisory for Friday into Saturday. Will keep a close
eye on how things trend in further packages, but there could be a
need for further upgrade (warning) for some portions of the area.
For now, have worded the NPW and HWO strongly for the higher end
wind gust threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM EST THU JAN 11 2024

Key Messages:

*Strong cold front clears the area Friday evening with strong winds
gradually diminishing through Saturday in its wake. Widespread rain
showers gradually diminish in intensity and coverage while changing
over to snow overnight Friday night, with scattered snow showers
continuing through Saturday as temperatures fall through the 30s.

*Snow accumulations Friday overnight through Saturday will be
minimal and confined primarily to grassy and elevated surfaces.

*Arctic front reaches eastern Kentucky Sunday morning, but stalls
somewhere between the KY/VA border and the spine of the Appalachians
by Sunday night into Monday. Arctic air will bleed into the area
from the west during this time late this weekend into early next
week.

*Weak and progressive upper-level disturbances moving along the
arctic front late Sunday through Tuesday producing periods of light
accumulating snow across the Tennessee River Valley and much if not
all of eastern Kentucky Sunday night into Tuesday. The proximity of
the arctic front to eastern Kentucky will play a pivotal role in
forecasts in the coming days, including the duration, timing, and
intensity of snow. However, differences in the location of the
arctic front and the strength of upper disturbances has resulted in
increasing uncertainty in the temperature and snow forecasts.

Analysis and Discussion:

At the beginning of the period, a strong cold front is progged to
have just cleared the CWA to the east and will be moving rapidly
away from the area. In its wake, strong cold advection will result
in strong gusty winds gusting 35 to 45 mph with locally higher gusts
to 55 mph continuing through the evening, then gradually diminishing
Friday overnight through early Saturday afternoon. Widespread rain
showers in the evening accompanying the strong gusty winds will
gradually diminish with a changeover to snow occurring around
midnight for most locations as cold air spills across eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures bottom out Saturday morning in the upper 20s
to lower 30s, which will provide for some snow to accumulate on
primarily elevated surfaces such as grassy areas and elevated
surfaces, but with minimal impacts expected for roads. Temperatures
fall through the day Saturday in the continued cold advection
regime, reaching the 20s to lower 30s by Saturday evening.

Arctic high pressure bleeds into and across eastern Kentucky
Saturday night through Sunday, pushing an arctic front slowly east
to near the KY/VA border or just east of the CWA Sunday night into
Monday. As is typical with arctic fronts, a sharp temperature
gradient is expected to develop along the front, which results in
increased uncertainty in temperature forecasts during this time
especially in the far southeastern parts of our CWA near the KY/VA
border.

By Sunday evening or Monday morning and lasting through Tuesday
afternoon, models begin to push a series of upper disturbances east
and northeast along the arctic front, increasing the chances for
light accumulating snow to the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-
Atlantic region, including eastern Kentucky. Most models keep the
arctic front just east of the area or move it further away from the
area Monday into Tuesday, with the ensemble members keeping the
arctic front closer to eastern Kentucky generally producing higher
QPF and thus snow accumulations, while ensemble members that drift
the arctic front farther south and east into the central Carolinas
and Virginia result in generally lesser QPF and resulting snow
accumulations. The Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (P-
WSSI) tool shows 24-hour probabilities for winter impacts peaking at
around 40 to 50 percent for Minor Impacts, and between 10 to 15
percent for Moderate impacts between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday
evening.

Once snow exits the area with at least partial clearing of skies,
which most modeling indicates occurs by Tuesday evening,
temperatures likely plummet into the single digits to lower teens
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with the potential for sub-
zero lows in the valleys if there is a decent snowpack.

Given the aforementioned uncertainties involved in the forecast, the
NBM Deterministic was used for the grids. Overall, temperatures
trended colder from the previous forecast package by 1 to 3 degrees
from Sunday into Monday, trended about 7 to 10 degrees warmer Monday
night into Tuesday given a trend towards increased cloud cover and
light snow occurring, followed by little temperature difference from
yesterday's forecasts for temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday
of next week as the coldest temperatures occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EST THU JAN 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with mid level
clouds arriving from the west and southwest around 12Z and after
along with the potential for showers encroaching on the region
ahead of a strong system that will impact the OH Valley region.
Winds will average southwest to west before 00Z at generally
around 10KT or less with some gusts of 15 to 20KT. Winds will then
slacken and eventually become southeast on average at 10KT or
less through about 12Z. Winds aloft, however, will be increasing
and by 12Z from the south and lead to a threat of LLWS to end the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...BB
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-121700-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City,
Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville,
Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City,
Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville,
Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
1155 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Southeast to south winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 55 mph
on Friday, with isolated higher gusts. For Friday evening and Friday
night, southwest winds of 15 to 30 mph, with widespread gusts of 40
to 50 mph with isolated higher gusts.

Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible within any stronger
showers or thunderstorms on Friday afternoon and evening.

Another storm system and arctic cold front will bring the threat for
an accumulating snow late Sunday into Tuesday of next week.

An arctic mass will settle in behind the second system, with high
temperatures remaining well below freezing and low temperatures in
the single digits and teens from Monday night through the middle of
next week. Wind chills are likely to drop to near or below zero for
many areas Monday night and Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

BB/CMC/JP