Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
847 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Busy near term with ongoing/unfolding flooding and severe weather
event. For an overall perspective, confidence in seeing flash
flooding across more locations is high while seeing severe weather
is more medium, but is really dependent on location ad the
position of the cold pool boundary. Southern areas is where
confidence in severe exists, while it becomes much less so as you
get along and north if I-20. Below is a break down of threats and
expectations.

Flash and River Flooding: Our NW areas are primed now from seeing 2-
5 inches over the past 24hrs. The next round is heading eastward
from NE Tx and will impact the W/NW and N-central areas tonight.
Efficient rain processes will exist with high quality moisture
advecting northward. Hi-res guidance has some variability on
specific locations and additional totals, but feel our current area
we have highlighted fits well and is where an additional 3-7 inches
is most likely through mid-day Wed. As noted earlier, we added the
SE portion of the FF Watch for Wed. This area has less duration, but
has greater potential to see high end to extreme precip rates with
the MCS. So the southern 3rd looks to see a quick 2-4 inches.
Overall, confidence in flooding is high. As we have been messaging,
there's also potential for higher end type flooding (significant)
where areas see the greatest accumulations and high rain rates.

Severe Threat: Potent weather system will be driving this potential
event and there looks to be a solid combination of elements to
support a robust type event. However, the details matter and there's
uncertainty in the details, thus confidence is more in the medium
range. Before we get to Wednesday, there's a threat for this
evening. Currently, a MCS is organizing in NE Tx and will evolve
eastward along the I-20 corridor. Damaging winds are the primary
threat with some tornado potential as well. Hail is a low
probability, but the more E it gets, hail chances lower. This will
serve to establish a boundary over the area which will have BIG
implications on storm evolution Wed. There's a decent signal in the
hi-res guidance for a MCS to evolve and push through the area
starting roughly 9am Wed and moving eastward through 5pm. The signal
is mainly for the south half of the forecast area as a qlcs type MCS
looks to move through. They key feature will be a cold pool boundary
that will get established from this evening/overnight storms. While
there remains some differences in position of the boundary, the
scenario of a more south boundary is favored. With strong forcing
and increasing divergence/lift, a surface low will deepen across the
area. This will serve to increase the wind shear and support
damaging winds and tornadoes. While a strong tornado is possible, it
is a lower probability due to instability issues. Greatest
confidence in the severe is the southern 3rd with a quickly
decreasing potential as you go northward to along and N of I-20. Due
to this and with coordination with WFO Memphis, we lowered the
threat levels across the north due to lower potential and low
confidence in severe.

Gradient winds: On final element to touch on, with the evolving MCS
Wed, there's been a signal for a "wake low" feature as the back edge
of the precip pushes east during the afternoon. These features are
very hard to predict, but a signal for one has been showing up. If
it does materialize, areas mostly N of I-20 could see a 1-2 hr
window where E or NE winds blow from 30-50 mph. /CME/

Friday through Monday: Overall, weather impacts will be
negligible in the longer range portion of the forecast. Dry and
subsident northwest flow and surface high pressure will bring
continued dry weather with seasonable temperatures as we finish up
the week and head into the weekend. By Sunday, we should see
ridging aloft result in a warmer weather regime with temperatures
getting back above normal. Most global model guidance indicate a
shortwave trough will begin to approach the region early next
week, so rain chances and breezier conditions will begin to return
by Monday. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 846 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Generally poor flying conditions through the TAF period as a few
rounds of SHRA and TSRA bring variable ceilings and visibility
conditions. Between rounds of heavier rain, MVFR to IFR ceilings
and -RA remain possible at most sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  72  56  69 /  50 100  60  10
Meridian      63  73  57  70 /  30 100  80  10
Vicksburg     66  74  55  72 /  80 100  40  10
Hattiesburg   66  75  58  73 /  20 100  50   0
Natchez       67  76  55  72 /  60 100  20   0
Greenville    63  70  55  69 / 100 100  60  10
Greenwood     63  70  55  68 /  90 100  80  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for MSZ018-019-025>045-
     047>050-053-054-059-060.

     Flood Watch from 6 AM CDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening
     for MSZ046-051-052-055>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

CME/EC/NF

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1007 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     Hail             1 E Ridgeland           32.43N 90.12W
04/09/2024  M1.00 Inch       Madison            MS   Storm Chaser

            Hail up to the size of quarters fell in
            Ridgeland. Report relayed via Spotter
            Network.

&&

NF