Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
705 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Today and Tonight: A significant severe weather event is likely
across our south later this morning into the afternoon while there
remains the potential for isolated severe storms and flash flooding
over the central portions of the CWA currently. Local radars showed
the leading edge of a broken line of strong thunderstorms with heavy
rainfall from Greenwood to Vicksburg and back across Catahoula
Parish. This activity will have the potential for damaging wind
gusts, small hail and rainfall rates in excess of two inches per
hour. Much of the area northwest of this line has received four to
seven inches or more over the last couple of days. Record rainfall
was set at Jackson and Greenwood yesterday.

For today early morning satellite imagery, RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a closed low over west Texas that will shift east
to the Sabine River by this evening and then northeast to the
Missouri Bootheel by sunrise Thursday. As the closed low approaches
our region this morning a shortwave rounding its base, including a
70-80kt speed max is expected to help enhance convection into an MCS
that will track east northeast across the southern portions of our
CWA. A strengthening kinematic field will lead to favorable shear
and decent instability to be in place across our region ahead of the
MCS. Damaging wind gusts of 60-70mph will be the main threat
although tornadoes; some strong(EF2+) will be possible especially
with any discrete storm development ahead of the MCS. In addition
to the severe storm potential, very heavy rainfall of 2-5 inches
will be possible across the southern portions of our CWA as well. An
additional inch or two will be possible across the northwest half of
the area that was already experiencing flooding and river flooding.

By this evening direr air will be working into our CWA from the
southwest while circulation around the closed low will maintain rain
chances across our north through the night. Temperatures by morning
will be back in the 50s areawide. /22/

Thursday through Tuesday night...The upper low/trough will move
across the area on Thursday, and this may kick off a few showers
mainly in the north early on Thursday before ending in the
afternoon. High pressure will build in Thursday night, with lows in
the mid/upper 40s. High pressure ridging will continue on Friday,
with highs in the low/mid 70s. A very nice weekend is on tap as
surface and upper ridging strengthen over the region. Highs on
Saturday will be in the upper 70s/low 80s, but will climb into the
80s for Sunday. Surface ridging will continue on Monday, but a short
wave and associated cold front may bring some showers to the area on
Tuesday. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Flight categories will vary from MVFR to IFR conditions through
much of the day, thanks to convection and low ceilings across the
region. As convection exits the area later this evening, low
ceilings will persist, with most area TAF sites climbing back into
MVFR categories overnight and into early Thursday morning. Winds
today will be breezy with a southerly component between 10-15
knots, with gusts around 25 knots possible. Winds will eventually
become northwesterly late in the forecast period, while remaining
gusty. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  55  72  48 / 100  60  10   0
Meridian      74  56  71  47 / 100  70  10   0
Vicksburg     75  55  73  47 / 100  40  10   0
Hattiesburg   75  58  73  49 / 100  40   0   0
Natchez       76  54  74  47 / 100  30   0   0
Greenville    73  55  71  49 / 100  60  10   0
Greenwood     73  54  69  48 / 100  80  30   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

19

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