Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1120 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Convection is ongoing this evening roughly along a line from HEZ
to JAN to TCL, with an area of stratiform rain to the north and
isolated SHRA/TS to the south. The vast majority of this activity
is occurring on the north/stable side of a warm front, which has
limited the intensity of convective wind gusts. However
sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft have resulted in several
occurrences of small hail, with a few instances earlier this
evening of larger hail. Meanwhile, within the unstable airmass
south of the front, storms have begun to increase across south LA
in response to increased forcing from an advancing upper trough
and associated surface low along with a strengthening low level
jet. As these storms move northward into parts of south/southeast
MS they may present more potential for damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes than has existed with earlier storms. Meanwhile, an
uptick may also occur north of the front into the overnight, but
the primary threat will continue to be large hail. Tornado Watch
21 continues through 1 AM, though again, the tornado threat is
focused mainly across the south/southeast MS portion of the watch.
With convection potentially lingering into the early morning
hours Monday, an extension in time is possible for some portions
of the area. Storms will gradually decrease from west to east
overnight. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Tonight through Saturday night: Severe storms are expected across
the CWA this afternoon and evening. The most intense storms are
expected along and south of a line from Winnsboro, Louisiana to De
Kalb in Kemper County Mississippi where damaging wind gusts, large
hail and a few strong tornadoes will be possible. Mid afternoon
radars showed a line of severe storms tracking east from the Highway
82 Corridor to well north of Interstate 20. This activity is
expected to hinder the development of additional severe storm
develop in its wake. Farther south though a surface low over the
east Texas/southwest Louisiana line is expected to track northeast
through Monday. This surface low was being supported by a closed low
as noted on mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis spinning
over the Texas panhandle. A warm front associated with the surface
low was noted on surface analysis near a line from Natchez to
Meridian. This warm front will try to push a little farther north
through this evening while the surface low rides along it. Storms
developing south of the warm front are expected to become focused
along the warm front to maximize potential for severe development.
In addition, locally heavy rain will also be possible with the
strongest storms and will fall over wet soils from previous rainfall
last several days. Some runoff issues should be expected and may
briefly lead to flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas.
Although the severe threat is expected to end before midnight
tonight the surface low will still be over our CWA and note shift
east of Mississippi along with its cold front until Monday morning.
This will end most of the significant rain however, light rain
chances will continue due to the closed low that will take until
Monday night to move far enough to the northeast of Mississippi to
end any chance of measurable precipitation. Cooler than normal
temperatures are expected Monday night through Tuesday night but
near normal temperatures are expected again Wednesday afternoon. Dry
weather is expected Monday night through Thursday night but rain
chances return from the southwest Friday as another low pressure
system approaches the region. Friday there will be a surface low in
the northwest Gulf that will help increase moisture over our area
while a strong cold front approaches from the central Plains. These
two features will form a squeeze play over our CWA Saturday
resulting in widespread rain followed by a return to dry weather and
cooler than normal temperatures Saturday night and Sunday. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1117 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024

Current radar scans continue to show numerous TSRA across much of
the area resulting in IFR/LIFR cigs across the northern half of the
area along with a mixture of VFR/MVFR and IFR cigs across the
southern half of central Mississippi. Winds will remain somewhat
northerly to start off the period before shifting to the west by 12Z
Monday. Poor flying conditions will continue through the TAF period
as the low pressure system continues to move further east across the
area. Ceilings will begin to improve a little after 16Z Monday.
Conditions will continue to improve to VFR status by 10Z Tuesday.
Expect amendments to several TAF sites throughout the period as
conditions continue to worsen due to ongoing showers and low
ceilings. /CR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       54  63  35  57 / 100  30   0   0
Meridian      58  68  37  59 / 100  70   0   0
Vicksburg     49  57  34  58 /  90  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   59  69  37  60 / 100  70   0   0
Natchez       48  57  35  59 /  90  10   0   0
Greenville    49  55  34  56 /  60  40   0   0
Greenwood     53  60  34  57 / 100  40  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/22/CR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1205 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     Hail             2 NNW Foxworth          31.26N 89.88W
02/11/2024  E1.75 inch       Marion             MS   Broadcast Media

            Ping pong to golfball size hail near
            Foxworth.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1207 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1156 PM     Hail             2 SSE Expose            31.30N 89.85W
02/11/2024  E1.50 inch       Marion             MS   Public

            Hail larger than a quarter along MS Highway
            13 north of Columbia.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1251 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     Hail             2 NW Brookhaven         31.60N 90.47W
02/12/2024  E1.25 inch       Lincoln            MS   Public

            Video submitted via social media.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1253 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1248 AM     Hail             Sharon                  31.79N 89.10W
02/12/2024  E0.70 inch       Jones              MS   Emergency Mngr

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1225 AM     Hail             2 S Zetus               31.53N 90.53W
02/12/2024  E1.00 inch       Lincoln            MS   Public

            Occurred along US 84 west of Brookhaven.

&&

DL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
106 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1222 AM     Hail             West Lincoln            31.49N 90.57W
02/12/2024  E1.00 inch       Lincoln            MS   Public

            Report via social media.

&&

DL